It is just hard to quantify or judge Hendrick Motorsports’ 2024 Cup Series run as an outright success. Yes, they did have Kyle Larson and William Byron, who had multiple wins, but for a third year in a row, it was Team Penske who bagged the biggest prize. Larson arguably was the driver who should’ve won the championship, but he failed to make it to the championship 4. Meanwhile, Byron, who booked his spot controversially, was no match for the Penske duo at Phoenix.

Well, we all know that HMS will bounce back and do everything within its power to put a halt to his Penske domination in 2025. Even veteran crew chief Larry McReynolds made similar claims that a Hendrick Motorsports driver will have the most wins in 2025. But his prediction also came with a warning that singled out the weak links within the HMS camp.

Who is the weak link within the Hendrick Motorsports lineup?

Without a doubt, Kyle Larson and William Byron are the two drivers leading the charge for HMS to contend for championships. Larson has the most number of wins (6) throughout the 2024 campaign, despite missing the Coca-Cola 600. Whereas, Byron led the No. 24 team to successive Championship 4 races. With the right environment and a touch of luck, the two drivers could convert these strong runs into title glory, but the same cannot be said for the other two drivers. Clearly, Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman are playing catchup to their teammates.

“I just believe when it’s all said and done, regardless of who goes to the championship 4, regardless of who wins the championship, the most wins for the second year in a row will come from Hendrick Motorsports. I will say this, I bet you there’s one of them that goes winless in 2025.” Larry McReynolds said this on SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.

Larry Mac didn’t single out either of the drivers, but going by statistics, it’s fair to say he was speaking about Bowman and Elliott. In the Next-Gen era, Bowman has just two race wins with the #48 team; his Chicago Street Race win came after a long gap of almost two years. And his 2024 campaign wasn’t convincing, to say the least. So much so that he had to clear the air surrounding his future within the team publicly. At the same time, Bowman wasn’t completely defenseless. His playoff exit came after a simple error that the team could have avoided. Yet, it might have been the mistake that cost them the title, since it effectively brought Joey Logano back into the competition.

Meanwhile, NASCAR’s most popular driver has found it hard to reinstate his status as the top contender after his 2023 heartbreak. For the first time in his career, Chase Elliott missed the playoffs and had to go winless after missing multiple races due to his snowboarding accident. In comparison, his 2024 season was a success as he bagged a win at Texas Motor Speedway during the spring race. But he never established himself as a title contender.

It is indeed alarming for Hendrick Motorsports that two of their drivers aren’t able to match the strides of Byron and Larson. Moreover, with rival camps like Joe Gibbs Racing, Trackhouse Racing, 23XI Racing, and Front Row making ambitious plans with changes, it makes you wonder when Rick Hendrick will make his move.

All eyes on Alex Bowman and the No. 48 team for 2025

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Bowman has been with HMS since 2018 and has contributed to eight wins during this stint. His best finish was in 2020 when he ended the season sixth in the overall standings, something he’s never achieved again in his Cup Series career. His supporters might argue a ninth-place finish in 2024, along with a win and the DQ at Charlotte Roval is enough for him to secure his ride. But for how long will HMS deal with his inconsistency, especially with new drivers leveling up year after year?

You have the likes of Ross Chastain, Carson Hocevar, and Justin Haley making all the right moves. Not to forget, they are not riding a Hendrick Motorsports car; they can prove their mettle as skilled racers despite being against the odds. Spire Motorsports is growing in stature as a satellite outfit for HMS, and who knows, the next driver to take charge of No. 48 Chevy could be from Spire. So, the pressure is on Bowman to deliver the goods, or we might hear rumors about his future again this year.

It will be interesting to see how Bowman performs during the 2025 season, and if indeed things go south, will HMS exercise the option to look for an alternative? So, there’s a lot on the line for both the driver and the team going into the new season.