The Hendrick Motorsports drivers have all occupied the top 10 even spots in the NASCAR Driver Standings, except 2nd, going into this weekend’s race. The Watkins Glen race is extra special for the HMS team, as it has dominated the last 5 races at this road course. So, it’s a great opportunity to strategize for at least one of the four cars to be in contention for the win.

The last ‘Go Bowling at the Glen’ winner was William Byron. Kyle Larson got the wins for two consecutive years before that. Then there was a gap year during the pandemic, as no race was scheduled at Watkins Glen. And HMS also registered two consecutive wins prior to that. HMS has, in effect, locked the famed road course since 2018.

Which one of the four has the best chance for the win?

Kyle Larson is undoubtedly in contention for the win this weekend. He has the best average rating of 111.1, as per Driver Averages, at Watkins Glen among all the drivers post the pandemic. But considering the pre-pandemic races, Chase Elliott has even a higher rating of 112, owing to his 2018 and 2019 wins. Interestingly, Elliott had his first-ever Cup Series race win at Watkins Glen in 2018. The #17 driver was named the most popular for four years, owing to his upward trajectory since.

Last year also saw an exciting race at the 2.45-mile road course, when William Byron went to victory lane. Alex Bowman is the only driver in the HMS stable who has never won at Glen. But he is definitely having one of his best Cup Series years. Moreover, he showed prowess on the road course earlier in the 2024 season with the Chicago Street Course win.

However, NASCAR suggests that Bowman is an underrated road course driver. He has a lesser chance of a win compared to his teammates at Watkins owing to his no-fascinating 21.4 average at the track. But he is also the one Playoffs driver who has scored the maximum points this year on a road course.

But overall, the opportunity is up for grabs for the HMS drivers in this race. Except for Elliott, all three of the HMS drivers have secured a road course win this year in a distinctive feat. At least one driver can reserve their spot in the Round of 12 by getting a sixth consecutive victory at WGI for the team since 2021.

Then again, Watkins Glen is known for producing unexpected results, with a lot of track drama. The same was the case when Elliott won his first race. But NASCAR has made some changes to the track after driver’s complaints from last year about the high G force experienced at the ‘Bus Stop’. Drivers like Ty Gibbs believe that it will only make them go faster, the actual effect will only be seen during the weekend.

What are the technicalities affecting the race?

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WGI is pulling off a first this weekend by hosting a playoff race. The elimination of the rise in curbing to reduce the G force impact in the Next Gen cars can be a welcome change for drivers. The change in curbing elevation is expected to allow drivers to maintain their speed at one of the coolest corners on a race track. But the effect of interchangeable curbing is subject to its configuration on the race day.

Another big impact that the second race of the NASCAR Playoffs is going to have is from the tires. The fast road course is already infamous for high tire wear, with the addition of rumble strips on Turn 1 of the track piling on to the problem. The strips will also affect the racing line as drivers usually go wide on this turn for a faster exit.

The tire strategy is then going to be dictated by factors like the overall race strategy, track position, and the points battle. There’s also a new tire compound introduced by Goodyear for this race to bring the tire fall off from 4 to 3 seconds. An extended Saturday’s practice session will allow teams to adjust to all these imminent changes and strategize accordingly.

Much of the results will also depend on the Qualifiers, as the road course offers fewer passing opportunities. Let us see how HMS manages its unique opportunity.