Mere meters are from the finish line, Ryan Blaney looked set to continue his title defense. All he had to do was hold his lead on Denny Hamlin, and the job was complete. However, he did not expect Tyler Reddick to come tanking around the outside and swooping past him to snatch the win. In light of this, Dale Earnhardt Jr. broke down what went wrong for the #12 Team Penske defending champion.

Earnhardt Jr. admitted that he would have loved to know Blaney’s thought process. Especially since he elected to drive into the middle lane. He noted that the Xfinity car and past Cup cars preferred to stick to the wall, but the Next-Gen car is unpredictable. This probably explains why Blaney chose a line that he thought suited him the best. However, it did not work out the way he had hoped, and Blaney’s despair was palpable.

Dale Jr. stated that Reddick could execute his last corner move in any car. Frankly, if the lead car picked the middle lane, the car behind was definitely going to try its luck. So the big mystery is whether the Next Gen car gave Blaney confidence in his decision. Frankly, his heart was likely in the right place, but he just could not pull it off, and now he has to try again.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. analyzed Blaney’s tactics

He noted that the preferred strategy at Homestead-Miami was to run right up against the wall. As a matter of fact, Dale Jr. was of the opinion that Reddick was one of the few drivers who excelled at running against the wall. He even spoke about how his JR Motorsports Xfinity Series team prepared for the Homestead race. The JRM drivers hopped on the sim and practiced running up against the wall. That soon translates onto the actual race track, and they stick to the plan. However, there was one drawback to that tactic.

Dale Jr. said on the Dale Jr Download, “They’re smart enough to know, everyone can’t run the wall. We’re all running the wall, no one can pass anybody. I saw Blaney make that comment before the race in the media center. He was like, ‘I gotta practice off the wall. Gotta practice running different lanes because I gotta make the car work there. If everybody’s on the fence, then I’ve got to find somewhere else to be.'”

“We see this with the Next Gen car at a lot of the mile and a half’s, I believe that’s what makes the car so incredibly good. With the diffuser, they can’t follow each other, they need to be always funneling air underneath the car. Getting air under the car to the diffuser in the back. So they have to run off line from the car in front of them. You send 10-20 of them into the corner at Kansas and Homestead. They all have to choose different lines to get away from the car in front of them. They have to. It really kind of does present multi-group racing on steroids.”

What is the main issue behind the tactic’s ineffectiveness?

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As a veteran in the NASCAR scene, Dale Earnhardt Jr. knows a thing or two about the Cup cars. He is aware that the previous generation was not overly dependent on aerodynamics, so clean air was not an issue. However, with the Next Gen Cup car, the emphasis is on having clean air to drive in. This explains why the cars usually fan out aggressively while heading into the corners.

The trick for these cars is to use as much of the racetrack as possible and occupy an empty piece of tarmac. In order to get clean air, the drivers cannot be stuck behind another car. So even if running up against the wall is the optimal line at Homestead-Miami, it is pointless if every car hugs the outside wall. If that happens, then it will just turn into a procession, because the cars cannot get closer. So the idea is to try and optimise a good line away from the wall and make their cars work there. Blaney made that pass and felt good about where his car was positioned. It was just bad luck that it did not work out in his favor.

As if the Next-Gen car wasn’t enough, now NASCAR is experimenting with tires ahead of the last Playoff race at Martinsville. “We did some testing at Martinsville back in August, which has created a new, even softer, left side tire… We sure hope it creates some interesting racing,” said NASCAR Cup series managing director Brad Moran. With so many variables at play for Sunday, who do you think will make it to Phoenix?