NASCAR has had several manufacturers compete in the sport in its 75-year history. As of 2023, there are three active manufacturers, namely Chevrolet, Ford, and Toyota. Of the trio, Toyota is the youngest manufacturer, having made its debut in 2007 and it has been in the sport for 16 years. However, there is a cause for concern for the Japanese manufacturer because, in the past couple of years, they have been losing key drivers to rivals, Chevrolet and Ford.

No one knows when it started, but the biggest high-profile departure is Kyle Busch. The driver left Joe Gibbs Racing at the end of a tumultuous 2022 campaign. To make matters worse for him, he and Joe Gibbs Racing received some bad news. As it turned out, long-time sponsor M&M’s was leaving the sport and the JGR partnership at the end of the season. Busch was undoubtedly still keen to stick around with JGR, but it seemed like the team dilly-dallied in finding a sponsor. As a result, Richard Childress Racing sensed an opportunity and pounced immediately.

How have things turned out for Toyota in NASCAR ever since?

Quite recently, Toyota-backed Venturini Motorsports driver Jesse Love made a startling announcement. From the 2024 season onwards, he would join Richard Childress Racing’s Xfinity Series operations. Since RCR is a Chevrolet-backed team, it is a massive blow for Toyota and the Toyota Racing Development programme. Love’s recruitment is a full-time gig, and he is replacing Sheldon Creed, whose own future is a bit of a mystery.

As it seems, there have been multiple drivers who exited the Toyota programme. Even a couple of the Hendrick Motorsports stars hailed from a Toyota background. Looking at how William Byron is performing now, the manufacturer really missed out on a hidden gem of a driver after he left Kyle Busch Motorsports. Other high-profile losses include Joey Logano, Michael McDowell, Alex Bowman, Ross Chastain, Erik Jones, Daniel Suarez and many more. Since then, many of them have gone on to either Chevrolet or Ford, and these are all just the Cup Series drivers.

In the lower divisions, there have been many more losses, and Jesse Love is just the latest. Others include Hailie Deegan, Daniel Hemric, Noah Gragson, Brandon Jones, and more. Of course, there is still a decent pool of drivers in the TRD camp, and the likes of Denny Hamlin and Bubba Wallace have been with Toyota for most of their careers. Sure, Wallace was with Ford and Chevrolet in his Richard Petty Motorsports days, but has since returned to Toyota.

Toyota actually had a healthy roster in its early years

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So one really has to wonder why this is happening to the Japanese manufacturer. It isn’t that the automobile giant isn’t successful in NASCAR, in fact, a Toyota-powered car has won at least one race every year since 2008. In spite of this, they only clinched three championships at the Cup level, namely Kyle Busch in 2015 and 2019, and Martin Truex Jr in 2017. Additionally, the Toyota representation has been dwindling.

In 2007, when Toyota made its NASCAR Cup Series debut, they allied with three teams. With those three teams, Bill Davis Racing, Michael Waltrip Racing, and Team Red Bull, they fielded six full-time cars and 5 part-timers. A year later, the full-time roster increased to five teams, fielding 10 cars and five part-time teams running five cars. Needless to say, Toyota was on an upward trajectory in its early years. By 2009 and 2010, they had as many as eight teams on their full-time roster.

As the years passed, the number of Toyota teams dipped

By 2012, Toyota had experienced a slight dip in its roster, as they were down to six teams. However, they made up for it by running double the number of cars. In 2014, the team numbers dropped to four and the number of cars was down to nine. Five years later, Toyota’s representation had plummeted to two teams and five full-time cars and three part-time teams running four cars.

Since then, that number has been stagnant, with just two full-time Toyota teams, Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing. As of 2023, the full-time roster has a total of six cars, while 23XI have one car running a limited schedule. Unfortunately, this means that they are hopelessly and hilariously outnumbered on the racetrack.

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Can Toyota depend on their current NASCAR drivers in the long term?

At the moment, the current crop of Cup drivers includes Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr, Christopher Bell, and Ty Gibbs. Hamlin and Truex are getting up there, even though their on-track performances seem to indicate otherwise. Meanwhile, Bell is coming into his own, and his 2023 performance and Championship 4 berth is more than enough proof. Finally, Gibbs is seen as the future of JGR because he is only 21 years old. Some would wonder if this is a slight case of nepotism, but he is still in his first season. Gibbs will need time to prove himself and start making meaningful contributions to the organization.

But can Gibbs really shoulder all the pressure from the team? When Hamlin and Truex Jr eventually retire, Bell and Gibbs will have to step up to the plate. Fortunately, JGR and Toyota still have a fair number of drivers filling up their Xfinity and Truck Series teams. However, one has to wonder how long it will take them to eventually graduate to the Cup Series, and will Hamlin and Truex Jr stick around long enough.

Now, Toyota are in a tricky spot as they head into the 2024 season. A suitable future prospect is none other than John Hunter Nemechek, who has been pretty impressive in the 2023 season. The best part is that he has Cup Series experience, where he has also seen a few struggles. Another thing that Toyota needs to watch out for is to rush any rising talent through the ranks. They made the same mistake with Joey Logano and it dented their chances. By the time he peaked, he was already deeply entrenched in the Ford camp.

As things stand, the numbers game is not on their side. And most teams are either powered by Ford or Chevrolet. This can be the very reason for Toyota losing so many drivers. Maybe all they need is more real estate in the sport. Or, they can also clear their ranks to make way for the younger talent.

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