Here’s Why Toyota Will Get Their 4th Title Despite This Being the HMS Sensation’s Breakout Year

The NASCAR Cup Series is heading towards an epic finale as the playoff action zooms past the 2nd eliminator in Charlotte. Just like the first eliminator in Bristol, 2 title holders were yet again knocked out of the tournament, including the multiple title winner, Kyle Busch.

Both Busch and his former rival, Brad Keselowski, were eliminated in the last race of the round of 12 along with last season’s runner-up Ross Chastain and 23XI Racing‘s Bubba Wallace. With the 36-race extravaganza nearing its conclusion, NASCAR nation is busy speculating whether it will be an HMS Chevy or the ever-consistent Toyota that will shine in the limelight.

While there have been quite a few final 4 predictions and previews, with 8 drivers remaining in the fray. Who will capture the throne? Will it be another HMS victory reign as William Byron proves his mettle, finishing off his career-high streak on a high note, or will it be any one of the 4 remaining Toyotas that will seize the moment?

Let us look at the odds and statistics on why this will be the year of the Toyota.

Toyota wins the numbers game in the NASCAR Cup Series as they double the American manufacturers

8 cars remain in the chase for the title. This includes 3 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas, led by the experienced veteran duo of Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr alongside the team’s road racing specialist Christopher Bell. The last Japanese car driver is Hamlin’s own 23XI Racing driver, Tyler Reddick. With a squadron of 4 top-notch cars and capable drivers ready to take on the challenge, the Toyotas have a massive numbers advantage doubling Chevrolet and Ford, which have 2 cars each.

On the other side, William Byron and Kyle Larson have Hendrick Motorsports‘ hopes riding on them, especially the 25-year-old Byron, who has been leading the tournament with 6 stellar wins across the board. The next is the #5 HMS car piloted by the 2021 Cup Series champion, Kyle Larson.

As of now, Larson is barely in the fight, coming in just above the cutline at the 4th spot. While Mr. H’s generational talent has showcased impressive performance to reach this far, inconsistency has the driver rattled. It’s almost like hit or miss for Larson, who will have to find his rhythm as the action heads to Las Vegas Speedway next week.

The remaining are the 2 Fords of Ryan Blaney and Chris Buescher. If one is to call spade a spade, then Team Penske driver, Ryan Blaney’s chances of making it into the championship 4 are narrow and thin whereas, for RFK Racing’s Buescher who has 3 wins to his name in various track layouts, things aren’t that glim.

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The deep dive into Toyota camp’s chances – Will this be Hamlin’s year? Or will his teammate pull off an upset?

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The JGR veteran, Hamlin is certainly one of the most if not the most consistent drivers of this season. Often touted as the best driver in the sport to never win a championship, this will be a golden opportunity for the 42-year-old to redeem himself, getting rid of the tag that haunts him. As far as the numbers go, Hamlin is currently ranked as #3 just below his teammate, Truex Jr, with 4032 points coming off of 3 wins and 16 top 5 finishes.

Though the opening playoff round of 16 tested the driver a bit, Hamlin proved all his detractors wrong, acing the 500-lap in Bristol with the swagger echoing in the track as he embraced his dark side, saying, “It’s our year.”

Above all, the Fed-Ex Toyota showed exceptional pace, carrying speed in all types of race tracks, including the speedways and short/intermediate tracks.

Looking at his resume for the remaining tracks, Hamlin has led over 600 laps in his last 18 starts at the Martinsville Speedway. While the win is still missing for the veteran, he might be due for it. Moreover, if one is to look at Hamlin’s playoff journey, the #11 has speed that is pretty evident. He comes off the momentum of 1 win and 4 top 5 finishes to reach the round of 8 as a clear championship favorite.

Couple that with the driver’s insatiable hunger for the win and his never-say-die attitude, and he is, in fact, a threat to all contenders. To put things into simple perspective, Hamlin is clearly the favorite from the Toyota camp, compared to his JGR teammate, Truex Jr who had a terrific regular season but a terrible playoff run.

While the regular season champion has the points edge over his teammate, the wind is clearly in Hamlin’s sails as Truex Jr barely made it past the first round, scrapping past the eliminator. But according to the driver, he can smell a win if he were to make it past the playoff rounds. The scene is pretty much the same for Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick. As for the #20 driver, his inability to finish the races clearly has affected his confidence. While the driver was spectacular in qualifying, racking up 5 pole positions in the playoff rounds, he was unable to convert that into a win.

Next in line is Hamlin’s driver, Tyler Reddick, who also showcased a decent performance in the playoff rounds. Now considering his impressive run in Kansas, the #45 driver has a shot at Las Vegas Speedway. Though both Bell and Reddick are behind the cutline with an 8-point deficit, a decent finish, and picking up valuable stage points will get them back to speed.

Tough luck for HMS and Ford camp

Other than William Byron’s sensational run, HMS has had a tumultuous season so far. With only 2 of its drivers making it past the regular season, HMS is also troubled by #5 Larson’s inconsistency. It’s more like a hit-or-miss adventure for Larson, who has acquired by far the most stage points (64). This, along with his excellent track record at Homestead (the reigning race winner) and his tenacity to chase for the win, has him in the championship discussion.

As for Ford, Blaney and Buescher have carried the hopes with Buescher being the tough one to deal with. The #17 driver blasted his way into the championship picture with an emphatic back-to-back win at the Michigan and Richmond tracks. Compared to the rest of the Fords, the RFK Racing car has shown considerable consistency along with the driver’s gritty performances, but he will have to figure his way out, given his boss’ elimination in Charlotte last week.

The least favorite of the lot is Team Penske‘s Ryan Blaney. Though he managed to pick up a win to advance further, his lackluster performances and the team’s sub-par equipment have cast a shadow over his championship contention.

To sum up the championship preview, Hamlin’s pace and momentum have him as the favorite. This along with the presence of his fellow veteran teammate, Martin Truex Jr who has a decent shot in the remaining races gives the HMS and Ford cars a tough ordeal, something they will have to get past in order to make it into the final 4.

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And this is exactly why Toyota has a strong chance of claiming a 4th title after Kyle Busch lifted the championship back in 2019, trouncing Byron and his #24 Chevy in the process.