No other driver in the NASCAR Cup garage will be happier than Ross Chastain as NASCAR heads to Nashville this weekend. The venue in particular has been a stomping ground for Chastain, as he is the most successful driver on the 1.3-mile concrete racing track. So, naturally, this would make him a favorite for the win and a preferred choice by the bookies to place the bets.

However, it looks like the bookies are not too sold on a Ross Chastain win this weekend. To the surprise of many, he’s not even made the list of the top 10 preferred drivers to bet on for the Ally 400 race this Sunday.

Ross Chastain is expected to draw blanks at the Nashville Superspeedway, but why?

Now there’s only a handful of data for making the predictions for the Ally 400 race. Starting in 2021, NASCAR has only been to the track three times so far. Surprisingly, in all three events, it was only the Chevrolet drivers who took home the victory. Kyle Larson won the inaugural race; his teammate clinched the win in 2022; meanwhile, Ross Chastain won last year’s edition.

If we are to compare the statistics, Chastain, with an average finish of 2.7, is the best driver at the venue. Moreover, he’s never finished outside of the top 5 in his three starts. However, his 2024 season hasn’t been up to his usual standards, and this is what seemed to have promoted My Top Sportsbook to snub Ross Chastain from their list. While the previous two winners were ranked first and second on their odds lists for this Sunday’s race, Chastain didn’t even make it inside the top 10 drivers pick.

What is even more surprising is that they featured struggling Kyle Busch as the fourth preferred pick, just below Denny Hamlin. Well, it’s interesting to see My Top Sportsbook make such a bold prediction. But it doesn’t change the fact that, based on track records, Ross Chastain is indeed among the favorites to win this Sunday’s race.

But why’s there such a stark contrast in the performance of the No. 1 Chevy from Trackhouse Racing, compared to last season? According to the driver, a lack of balance and silly mistakes have hampered his season’s run so far.

Chastain is looking for more grip and balance from his race car

If we are to compare the driver’s 2023 run after 18 races, one can clearly identify something’s off with the No. 1 Chevy. At this point, the team had already bagged six top-5 finishes, including the win at the Nashville Superspeedway. But 2024 has been a different story, with only two top-five results to their name.

Highlighting the reasons behind his struggles, Chastain, in an interview via Frontstretch, stated, “We’re just not there. We have to get the cars balanced better. It’s a culmination of things; it’s not like there is one plaguing problem with the 1 car … So I feel like small mistakes when we’ve had the speeds and then other times not glaring issues just a little balance. Front tires and back tires are sliding too much.”

The good news for Ross Chastain and his team is that he is currently placed 9th in the points standings, far from the cutline. So hopefully, in one of the eight upcoming races in the regular season, fans get to see him celebrate a win by smashing the watermelon.