“I hate trying to explain why it hasn’t happened,” Denny Hamlin dejectedly said after barely entering the Round of 8. Across his 19-year tenure in the sport, Hamlin has fetched laurels comparable to the old greats. 54 Cup Series wins, including marquee races like the Coca-Cola 600 or the Daytona 500, feature in his resume. But the glaring factor missing here is the glimmer of a championship trophy. Ranging from a loose roof hatch to a taped-up overheating problem, varied reasons came his way.

This year as well, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver’s hopes are dwindling. He could rescue the Round of 16 with a top-five at Bristol, and his Round of 12 finishes became increasingly worse—8th, 10th, and 14th. Although Hamlin could be a threat in Las Vegas, he would need to completely reassess his lackluster approach, as a NASCAR veteran opined.

Denny Hamlin drumming up less hope

When the No. 11 Toyota cruised to Victory Lane in Dover after edging Kyle Larson, Hamlin looked fierce. However, his winning storyline ground to a halt after that. He gathered top-five candies across a five-race streak from Kansas, but the top-30 results soon came knocking on the door. His playoff entry has not been spectacular—he qualified in the rear at Atlanta due to a spark plug issue and had an ill-handling car. Watkins Glen collected him in a crash on the first lap, and the pit crew struggled in Kansas. A two-tire call almost backfired in Talladega, where a stroke of luck or the 28-car wreck propelled him forward.

Clearly, Denny Hamlin is walking on eggshells. 32-time Cup race winner and 1999 series champion Dale Jarrett cast doubt on Hamlin’s hopes. “I’m interested to see how he and Chris Gabehart and this team can rebound from what has not been a very good playoff so far for them. They have not performed at a high level. They have somehow maintained their composure and moved through the first two rounds of this.” As they enter the 20-degree banking turns of Las Vegas, the matter looks dicey. “But now things are really more difficult. They start this round below the cutoff line.”

Denny Hamlin holds a 2021 Las Vegas win and has finished 11th or better in 7 of 8 starts he made on the tri-oval. Jarrett believes Hamlin might conjure up a good plan but still harbors doubts. “Now there in my mind is no one better than Denny Hamlin at understanding situations and making things happen. He’s talked about how these three tracks—Las Vegas, Miami, and Martinsville—really line up well for him. But they have just not shown the speed to compete and compete for a win that would move them en route to the championship 4.”

If things do not go according to his heart’s desire, Denny Hamlin may be well prepared. Because the numerous painful heartbreaks in the past have toughened him.

Lack of soaring expectations

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What could go wrong that Denny Hamlin has not faced already? Possibly nothing, as the Joe Gibbs Racing driver’s championship heartbreaks have been eclectic. He lost his 8-win run in the 2010 finale when his team pitted for fuel and lost a chunk of points to Jimmie Johnson. In 2015, the No. 11 Toyota’s roof hatch loosened and required a pit stop—Hamlin was eliminated from Talladega. 2019 may have been the most painful. A 6-win stretch included a Phoenix trophy, and he was well on his way to the Cup title. But Gabehart’s decision to put tape on Hamlin’s car led to overheating and then disappointment.

In 2022, Ross Chastain executed the jaw-dropping ‘Hail Melon’ move in Martinsville. That advanced him to the Championship 4 at Hamlin’s expense. So after suffering these checkered blows throughout his Cup career, Denny Hamlin has gone numb. “Over time, I’ve [become] at peace with doing the best that I can do and not letting failure just completely drag me down. I’ve had it also [happen] so many times that when you walk over burnt coals, eventually your feet scar up and that scar tissue hardens and you don’t feel the pain anymore. So, maybe that’s happening, too.”

This year, his championship hopes appear to be fading as well, as Dale Jarrett said. However, we can only hope that the 11 team has a trick up its sleeve for this final run to the championship.