“It’s a tough business,” Hendrick Motorsports executive Jeff Gordon quipped back in July. This was after Alex Bowman had ended an 80-race drought with a win in Chicago, to quieten the rumors around his future at HMS. Or so we thought. His Chicago performance was followed by a dismal streak of back-to-back poor finishes barring Pocono. So as the post-season nears, rumors about him moving out of HMS are again rife.

The No. 48 driver has had a decent season without being spectacular. With 12 top 10s and six top 5s this season, it is a little harsh to think Bowman may not fit HMS’ ambitions. But that is the situation he finds himself in. The win in a rain-drenched Chicago Street Race was followed by a P3 finish at Pocono, but things went downhill from there. Bowman finished outside the top 15 for five races, which included finishes of  P31, P28, and P27.

With just 5 playoff points to his name, we could very see him out of the first round in the playoffs, and veteran spotter Brett Griffin, who has had a career spanning over two decades in racing in various roles believes not only Bowman’s playoff run could come to an end but his tenure at HMS as well.

Speaking on the “Door Bumper Clear” podcast on Wednesday, Brett Griffin mentioned “I’d say Alex Bowman is out, and he may be out in more, than just the playoffs if he’s out first round,” he said while talking about drivers who could have an early exit.

While Griffin said round of 16 will be the end of the 2024 season for Bowman, questions directed at the #48 driver on Wednesday’s Playoff Media Day did paint a grim picture for his future with HMS. Questions were mostly centered around whether HMS will retain him for the next season and whether the rumors about him leaving the 48 hold any weight.

The latest on Bowman’s exit rumors in his own words

“That rumor has certainly been annoying, definitely. Obviously my contracts through the end of ’26 and all I can tell you is like what my bosses have told me and that’s, there’s no plans to change anything. Rumors are just rumors, so hopefully they’ll get their announcements done, so my rumors stop, as far as I know I am driving the 48 next year, nothing is changing,” he said. However, the questions didn’t end here as Bowman was asked whether he had any reason to doubt these claims.

“I don’t think so. I trust my bosses and that’s what they have told me. Like, every conversation I’ve had with my bosses it’s unfortunate rumors, and it’s like rumors that we’re really not even a part of, which makes it difficult. I don’t think there’s any plans or anything on the HMS side,” Bowman clarified.

Yet during the discussion on ‘DBC’ Bubba Wallace’s spotter Freddie Kraft hinted at a move away for Bowman. “There’s a reason they haven’t announced any drivers in certain cars yet,” he said. Spire Motorsports is one team looking for a replacement after announcing Corey LaJoie will not return to the #7 Cup Series car in 2025. Spire co-owner Jeff Dickerson is not short of ambition and adding a driver of Bowman’s experience will do his team no harm.

While Spire have been quiet on the driver front, they have added Rodney Childers from Stewart-Haas Racing as the crew chief for their number 7. Josh Berry didn’t follow Childers to Spire, and Rick Ware Racing’s Justin Haley, considered one of the favorites to land the seat, still has at least one more year on his deal.

NASCAR journalist Austin Konenski has also chimed on the Bowman to Spire Motorsports rumors, suggesting we may see a move. “It has certainly made rounds for a few weeks now…we’ll see what happens with Spire Motorsports and other NASCAR teams,” he tweeted in response to comments from the DBC podcast. Yet, let’s not forget Bowman is signed to HMS through 2025. So will Spire and Bowman wait another year?

In his assessment of the situation, Konenski later tweeted, “I’ve been skeptical about the entire thing but it’s been getting louder. Definitely think the seats are warm. The 2026 season could also be a better idea? Very fluid NASCAR silly season stuff!” Waiting another year may seem ideal for Bowmand and Spire, but HMS’ lofty standards mean they could be looking for a driver sooner rather than later.

Running his seventh full season with Mr. H, Alex Bowman has trodden a long and arduous path at Hendrick Motorsports. His journey started in 2017 and he clinched his first victory at Chicagoland Speedway in 2019. Bowman’s breakthrough performance came in 2021 when he grabbed four shining trophies. But unfortunate circumstances prevailed over him in 2022—a concussion sidelined him for five races. 2023 witnessed his back injury that put him out for three-point races. Coming into this year, Bowman faced issues like engine trouble in New Hampshire that ended his day on the 144th lap.

After Bowman’s Chicago win Jeff Gordan hinted at Bowman at least seeing out his contract. “I understand why people want to talk. … It’s a tough business. When you’re at Hendrick Motorsports, you do expect, especially when the other three have won, to be in that same category, and it hasn’t been happening. Hopefully this dispels a lot of the rumors.”

Despite Bowman repeatedly snuffing out ejection ideas while praising his team executives and long-time sponsor Ally his position has once again come under question. But why Bowman’s place is under scrutiny out of the four HMS drivers? Well, his crew chief may have the answer.

Bowman’s crew chief emphasized the points battle

All throughout 2024, HMS drivers have been on a roll. Kyle Larson tops that group—the arguably best racer in the US right now attempted the Double in May besides clinching four stellar wins. He also wrestled with Tyler Reddick at Darlington for the regular season championship, losing it by just one point.

Then Chase Elliott is not far behind, as he stuffed some consistent finishes along with his Texas win in a delicious sandwich of success. William Byron also owns three wins this season, rivaling the likes of Denny Hamlin in points and occupying the 4th rank currently.

So you can see where Alex Bowman lags behind in this group—the points battle. He currently occupies the 12th place, as consistent finishes have not been his forte. Even after the Chicago win, crew chief Blake Harris observed Bowman’s weakness that the playoff system snuffed out.

“I think the speed has been there. We talked, we had an engine failure at Loudon and we had an engine failure here last year at Chicago. As we talk through those things, he’s like, man, right as we’re in this point battle, and I’m like, we’re one race away from that not mattering.”

Clearly, it takes a lot to proudly flaunt yourself as a Hendrick driver. With Alex Bowman’s future supposedly at stake, where do you think the driver would be headed next?