Expectations were high from Kyle Larson going into Kansas Speedway. Why wouldn’t they be? The Hendrick Motorsports driver secured the fifth win of his season with a dominating performance at Bristol Motor Speedway. He led 462 of 500 laps on the short track, the perfect way to end the opening three playoff races race and lead the driver standings going into the Round of 12. However, the outcome of the 2024 Hollywood Casino 400 couldn’t have been more disappointing, as Larson was forced to settle for a 26th-place finish on the 1.5-mile oval.

With six races remaining before the 2024 season ends, a prominent NASCAR insider has issued a warning sign for Larson ahead of the race at Talladega Superspeedway, a track that is considered somewhat of a ‘wildcard’ by many in the NASCAR community.

Will Kyle Larson overcome the Superspeedway slump?

Kyle Larson was at the top of the driver standings going into the race at Kansas Speedway. How he won the 2024 Bass Pro Shops Night Race convinced many that this could finally be the year he wins his second Cup Series championship. However, the result in the opening Round of 12 race relegated him to fourth on the table, 18 points above the elimination cutline with tricky races at Talladega and Charlotte Oval on the horizon. While it would be silly to underestimate Larson in the upcoming races, statistics prove that his struggles at Superspeedways could affect his title hopes.

Speaking on the Door Bumper Clear podcast, NASCAR insider Freddie Kraft issued a warning for Kyle Larson, saying, “The guy you need to worry about this week is Larson. I mean, he cannot find a finish at a drafting track. I don’t think it’s anything he’s doing wrong, a lot of time it’s just luck at these places and now he’s only, I think he’s 17, 18 to the good. That gets erased quickly if you get caught up in something. He needed to have a much better Kansas to give himself a little..”

It seems like Bubba Wallace’s spotter is making a valid point. It’s no secret that Kyle Larson has struggled at Superspeedway tracks in the past, with his only top-ten finish coming on 24th April 2022. Talladega is one of two such tracks in the NASCAR calendar, with the other being the Daytona International Speedway. Larson has struggled to get results in both venues, with his highest finish in the last ten races on such tracks coming earlier this season when he finished 11th. If Larson comfortably wants to progress into the Round of 8, he will need to focus on getting a result at the 2024 YellaWood 500.

As things stand, he remains comfortably above the elimination cutline, but Kyle Larson would be wise to not rely on the gap and ride his luck. If lady luck is not on his side at Talladega and he is forced to crash out, the 32-year-old could find himself in a difficult position going into the Charlotte Roval. The final Round of 12 race will be held at a hybrid road course/oval track, bringing a new set of challenges that Larson will be forced to overcome to keep his title hopes alive.

NASCAR Insider highlights the unpredictability of the playoffs

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Whatever could go wrong did go wrong for Kyle Larson at Kansas Speedway. He qualified for the race just outside the top 10 and failed to secure a single point in the opening two stages. Around the Lap 20 mark, his No. 5 Chevy cut a tire while hitting the outside wall, which caused damage to his car. Even though crew chief Cliff Daniels tried to implement various strategies to help him gain track positions and stage points, it seemed like the 32-year-0ld’s car simply lacked pace, a stark contrast from the race at Bristol.

In the dynamic world of NASCAR, Larson went from being an overwhelming championship favorite to a driver whose place in the Round of 8 was at risk. Sharing insights about the unpredictable nature of the postseason format, Jordan Bianchi, a prominent NASCAR journalist for The Athletic, said, “Seven days later, just forget about that. Seven days later you’re looking at it like, ‘Man, they’ve got to get out of round two. That’s the uniqueness. Some would say beauty, some would say not, and it’s certainly the uniqueness of this playoff format, where it’s so volatile and tumultuous and all of those words from week to week where you don’t know.”

The next two weeks could make or break Kyle Larson’s season. While he remains one of the favorites to progress into the next round, nothing is guaranteed in a sport where the finest margins can make all the difference. The California native is expected to remain in contention for the title when NASCAR visits Phoenix Raceway in the Championship 4 later this year. Anything less would be considered as nothing but an upset for the 2021 Cup Series winner.