“One mistake and you’re probably done.” Martin Truex Jr is well aware of the cutthroat playoff format present in NASCAR’s Cup Series. Shortly after the regular season wrapped up, he held the most laps led among winless drivers – 489. But, he also held the lowest position in the 16-driver playoff grid. That happened after he crashed out in Darlington, the last miserable outcome in a long series.

Truex’s luck did not pick up at Atlanta Motor Speedway‘s playoff opener either. And so, his repetitive misfortune has led some NASCAR experts to throw a shadow on his pre-retirement wish. Truex will certainly need a win to go out in glory, but it seems highly unlikely.

Can Martin Truex Jr prevail?

The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has led a long journey in NASCAR. Truex Jr holds 34 Cup Series trophies including crown jewel events like the Southern 500 and the Coca-Cola 600. He continued his fiery streak last year as well, entering the 2023 playoffs with three regular-season wins. However, Truex’s pace fell through in the post-season. Similarly, Truex’s solid 2024 pace fell through after the first half of the year, as journalists Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi debated.

In an episode of The Teardown, Bianchi traced Martin Truex Jr’s consistently poor finishes. “Last top-five for Martin Truex Jr – Kansas. He has not led more than 28 laps…He led 28 laps in Michigan…No, this is not at all a driver in a team that I feel like I have any confidence in. They haven’t been able to score stage points…They have no momentum, they’re not running well, they haven’t had a lot of speed in their race cars…going in the wrong direction and at the wrong time – it’s been that way for a while.” Now, at Atlanta too, Truex faced a hiccup.

After recovering from two penalties and carving his way to the top twice, Marin Truex Jr did not lose hope. Yet, on his third march to the front, Truex lost his luck. On lap 206, Chris Buescher’s mistake sent Truex shooting up into Ryan Blaney. He finished 35th, not boding well for his next races. On top of that, Truex will have some tough contenders, as Bianchi emphasized. “I’m thinking about the guy that will go for the win because he doesn’t worry about points right? Blaney…SVG’s gonna go for the win. I don’t know if Montoya is gonna be a factor.”

Echoing Bianchi’s apprehensions, Martin Truex Jr himself confessed he may have shot himself in the foot at Darlington.

Truex knows he is in the deep waters

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After Joe Gibbs’ veteran driver finally announced his retirement in June, eyes were glued to him. Martin Truex Jr was expected to have a trailblazer ending to his two-decade-long NASCAR career. Yet, he is hanging by a jittery point balance in the playoffs, as he continues to run into mishaps. Even before he lost his Atlanta hopes, the veteran felt crestfallen after Darlington. Losing control on lap 3 of the Cook Out Southern 500, he watched helplessly as a 58-point cushion in the playoffs evaporated. Although Truex barely made it in, he felt a sting in his heart.

Despite Dale Earnhardt Jr’s reason that Truex may be dreaming about his retirement holiday too soon, the driver held a more serious mindset. Echoing Bianchi’s ominous comments, Truex also felt he axed his chances. “I wanted to leave Darlington, dig a hole, and crawl into it for a few days. It was a terrible feeling. I felt like it was the biggest mistake I’ve made in my entire racing career, which was pretty bad given what the day was and what was on the line … I was thinking that I just ruined our whole season and the next ten weeks would stink.”

Evidently, Martin Truex Jr needs to step up to save his last season from descending into chaos. Let us wait and see how the veteran fares in the following playoff races.