So far, the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs have been a wild ride. This was thanks to the debut of Atlanta Speedway and Watkins Glen in the 2024 playoff lineup. The addition of another drafting track proved to be a thriller. While Daniel Suarez was all set to clinch the win, Joey Logano snatched it at the last moment. Even the addition of a second road course race proved to be a success in NASCAR’s attempt to up the entertainment value.

Chris Buescher played spoiler in the race, displaying his road course prowess. In fact, out of the six playoff races, non-playoff drivers won thrice. First Buescher, then Ross Chastain took the checkered flag at Kansas. Lastly, Ricky Stenhouse Jr won at the chaotic Talladega. Now that NASCAR is heading to pick its final four, NASCAR legend Dale Jarrett has predicted the next race to disrupt the playoff field as well.

Dale Jarrett predicts a non-playoff driver win in Vegas

The unpredictability of this year’s playoffs had two former Cup Series champions, Martin Turex Jr and Brad Keselowski, eliminated in the first round. Even the second round was playing out to be the same story as two-time Cup Champion Joey Logano almost faced elimination. However, Alex Bowman getting disqualified for failing post-race weight inspection gave the Penske driver a spot in the top 8. Other than this, all expected names have made it to the next round. Now the competition is going to ramp up as NASCAR heads to the Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

However, the playoff drivers face an equal amount of threat from non-playoff drivers. Recently the 1999 Cup Series Champion, Dale Jarrett spoke on the same lines, he said, “Las Vegas is the first race of the round of eight and here are three things that I’ll be watching number one will we see the non-playoff drivers be a big factor in this race possibly taking the win away which is that golden ticket that these drivers uh in the round of eight are looking for.” 

Many drivers on the non-playoff list are worthy candidates to win the race. However, the strongest one might be Alex Bowman. Bowman was having a splendid playoff until he got disqualified. Moreover, he is the only non-playoff driver to have won the race in the next-gen era. When he took the chequered flag in the 2022 spring race. Other than Bowman, Keselowski too would be looking to bag his first season win. Luckily Vegas happens to be the track where he’s won thrice in his career. And after his P2 at the recent Talladega, his old form seems to have come back. Like Keselowski, other veterans like, MTJ and Kyle Busch too have won at the track in the past and would be tough to beat.

Forget wins, the playoff drivers could also struggle to bag stage points which could be detrimental to their championship hopes. “They (non-playoff drivers) are not only possibly taking uh that opportunity to win and move on into the championship four away from these guys. But they’re taking stage points away at the end of the race. And we know that it might just mean the difference in moving into the championship for just that one point. So I think there’s a lot of potential there for an upset win,” Jarrett further added.

However upset win or not, there is going to be a tough competition amongst the playoff field.

Who amongst the payoff drivers could dominate the race?

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After winning the Charlotte Roval race, Kyle Larson is riding the winning high and aims to continue the momentum at Las Vegas. Luckily, the track has been kind to the Hendrick Motorsports driver. On the last two occasions that the series raced there, the #5 took the checkered flag. Making him the driver with the most wins in the next-gen car there. In his 16 starts on the track, he has finished 11 times in the top 10 and eight times in the top 5.

Even William Byron has been consistent on the track. He won last year’s spring race on the track, And out of his last seven races, five have been top-10 finishes. While Larson took the chequered flag in the 2023 race, Christopher Bell ended up in the runner-up position, his best finish on the track so far. While the JGR driver is yet to bag a win on the track, on two occasions, Bell has started from the pole but failed to capitalize. Maybe this time he can.

Another string contender is Denny Hamlin. Although he only won once in 2021, the veteran has a great record of consistency on the track. In his 25 races on the track 13 times he has finished in the top 10, the last being in this year’s spring race when he finished 8th. And the #11 has also on 6 occasions taken a top-5 spot. Only in his 5th Cup Career, Reddick too has been consistent on the track. He was the runner-up in the most recent race on the Las Vegas track. Five of his last six races here have been top-10 finishes.

These stats show how tight the competition is for every point in the race. Who do you think will dominate the race? Let us know in the comments below.