It’s now or never for Kyle Larson. Despite having had a championship-worthy season, the Hendrick Motorsports driver finds himself seven points below the elimination cutline going into the final playoff race at Martinsville Speedway. The 32-year-old has had a love-hate relationship with ‘The Paperclip’ in the past, having struggled on the 0.526-mile track before moving to NASCAR’s most successful team. With the stakes higher than ever, will the California native pull off a clutch performance?

It’s been quite a topsy-turvy Cup Series campaign for the No. 5 Chevy driver. From dominant victories to unforced errors, Larson has been through it all. With one race remaining before Phoenix Raceway, Larson reflected on how his fortunes have turned around at Martinsville over the years.

Kyle Larson credits the team for improvement at Martinsville

Despite his dominance, the season has been full of missed opportunities for Kyle Larson. The 2021 Cup Series winner has double the race wins in comparison to his closest rivals, but his season would have been so different if lady luck was on his side. He missed out on the Coca-Cola 600 because of his ‘double’ attempt and lost out on the regular series championship by just one point. He also finished runner-up at Martinsville and Dover earlier this season, with unforced errors being a recurring theme throughout the year.

While he isn’t in a must-win situation, Kyle Larson desperately needs a result at the 2024 Xfinity 500 to keep his title hopes alive. Despite describing Martinsville Speedway as his “worst track” in the past, the HMS driver is optimistic about his chances going into the race. Sharing his expectations ahead of the final playoff fixture, he said, “Obviously, having more data and stuff to look at these days, I’m probably, definitely a much better driver than I was there the first few seasons that I went to Martinsville. I think more than anything, just being with a great team and having a great crew chief and engineers set up my racecars, all that helps more than anything.”

There is an element of truth in Kyle Larson’s words. The California native hasn’t finished lower than sixth at Martinsville Speedway in his last four appearances, going on to win the 2023 NOCO 400 last season. During this period, he has also finished runner-up twice, highlighting just how strong he has been on the short track in the Next-Gen era. It’s a sentiment Larson agrees with, as he said, “But yeah, we’ve been able to do a really good job there over the last three and a half seasons and yeah, it’s probably, I think Vegas might be, on my average finish, probably my best track, but I would say Martinsville is a close second if not maybe first.”

However, that wasn’t always the case. Before his move to Hendrick Motorsports, Larson struggled to get anything out of the short track, having finished as low as 42nd during his debut season at Phoenix Racing. During his seven-year-long stint at Chip Ganassi Racing, the California native broke into the top five at Martinsville Speedway just once, when he finished third in the 2016 STP 500. He has improved since then, making ‘The Paperclip’ one of his favorite places to race at in the last few years.

Despite recent results, his job will be far from easy in the final playoff race of the season. Kyle Larson’s teammate William Byron is the most recent winner there and currently occupies the last spot above the elimination cutline. Denny Hamlin has more wins at Martinsville Speedway than any other driver and the Joe Gibbs Racing veteran is desperately looking for a result to keep his championship hopes alive. Ryan Blaney has the highest average finish on the track while Chase Elliott cannot be ruled out of contention. Larson has his work cut out for him going into the race. Will he be able to rise to the occasion?

Larson not underestimating Martinsville’s challenges

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Kyle Larson has gained a reputation for his aggressive style of driving. While that has paid off more often than not, it backfired at Homestead-Miami when he was trying to catch up with Ryan Blaney for the victory. The driver pushed his No. 5 Chevy to the limit, forcing him to spin out while occupying second place with just 13 laps to go. While Larson only gave up one position after losing control, damage to his car’s diffuser forced him to go into the pit road and eventually settle for a 13th-place result.

Even though he isn’t in the most precarious position going into Martinsville, Kyle Larson cannot afford to repeat some of the mistakes that were made at Homestead-Miami. With passing opportunities being notoriously difficult on short tracks, the 32-year-old will hope to qualify at the top and have a sound pit strategy to progress into Championship 4 without much drama. Highlighting his expectations, he said, “I think we’ll have a good car, a great car, and we’ll have a good shot, but it’s just a tough place. And it’s not a place that’s ever really been comfortable for me, even with the success that we’ve had. It’s a tough, really tough track for me.”

Even though Kyle Larson has been the best driver in the Cup Series so far, that’s not a guarantee that he’ll make it to Championship 4. Remember Kevin Harvick’s dominant season in 2020? He looked unstoppable throughout the year, only to miss out on one of the four spots before the title race at Phoenix Raceway. In a season full of missed opportunities, will Larson perform when it matters the most to have a shot at the Bill France Cup? Time will tell. However, if there’s one driver who deserves to be in contention, it’s him.