The Super Bowl is done and dusted, and that only means one thing. It’s one week to Daytona! The Daytona 500 is just around the corner and while the excitement around NASCAR’s biggest race has felt a little flat in recent years, the 2025 edition could be a game-changer! The introduction of the Next-Gen car has made Daytona a bit more of a wreck-fest, with unexpected drivers clinching victory after wild races. Austin Cindric took the win in 2022 starting from 5th, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. grabbed the checkered flag in 2023 from 31st, and last year, William Byron came out of nowhere from 18th to take the win.

Superspeedways have that unpredictability built in, and it’s one reason why some big-name drivers—like Martin Truex Jr., Tony Stewart, Brad Keselowski, Chase Elliott, and even Kyle Larson—have yet to score a Daytona 500 victory. But with 2025 shaping up to be a big year, could this be the year one of them finally takes home the coveted Harley J. Earl Trophy? The odds are saying that Kyle Larson could be the one to break through.

It could be one of the Kyles

Kyle Larson’s been on fire lately, just not at Daytona. Despite an impressive career, he’s struggled to make an impact in the Daytona 500. In 11 starts, his best finish is 7th (twice—once in 2016, again in 2019). The Next-Gen car hasn’t done him any favors either. Outside of a solid 11th-place finish last year, Larson’s finishes have mostly been in the 15th or worse. In fact, he had a DNF in 2022 and finished 18th in 2023.

But, hey, 2025 might be his year! Recent predictions from DraftKings Sportsbook have Kyle Larson pegged as the favorite to win it all. Kyle Busch sits in second and Denny Hamlin rounds out the top three—Hamlin would be going for his fourth Daytona 500 win if he takes the checkered flag again. For either Larson or Busch, though, it would be their first.

Larson has had a killer start to the 2025 season. He took home his third Golden Driller at the Chili Bowl, leading all 40 laps. He won the Last Chance Qualifier at The Clash but couldn’t pull off the main event victory. Still, he’s been finding that winning momentum again, most recently taking home the win at the World of Outlaws race in Volusia Speedway Park, leading all 25 laps and holding off Christopher Bell for the win. It wasn’t the Harley J. Earl Trophy, but Larson did snag a Gator trophy which is prestigious in dirt racing. It’s proof that he’s got the right attitude going into the Daytona 500.

This year might be the year Larson checks off a huge box on his racing resume—and what better place to do it than Daytona? But let’s not forget, the track’s been tough for him. He hasn’t cracked the top 10 in Daytona since 2019, and there are a lot of surprises coming this year. We’ve got four-time Indy 500 winner Helio Castroneves, 2024 Xfinity champion Justin Allgaier, and a handful of veteran Cup drivers like Martin Truex Jr. and Jimmie Johnson. But, somehow, Larson’s feeling good about his chances.

As he said, “Definitely doesn’t affect confidence or anything. But, um, I don’t know. It just seems like things are going well for me right now and, and it would be neat to, you know, check off another box that’s kind of, you know, eluded me for so long. So, um, but it’s like, you can control your destiny here. You can’t really control your destiny a whole lot over there. So it’s just kind of a c— shoot.”

Larson is absolutely spot on when it comes to not being able to control destiny at Daytona. Since 1993, the average margin of victory at the Daytona 500 is 0.166 seconds, producing nail-biting finishes every time. However, the Daytona 500 tends to get messy. Over the last decade (2014 onwards) the Daytona 500 has seen more wrecks than any other race on the schedule. 6 of the last 10 Daytona 500s have ended under caution and we have seen 168 cars crash at the ‘Great American Race’, making it 15 times more likely that you wreck at Daytona than win the race!

It’s no surprise that even the best drivers have struggled to win it because aside from skill, there is a lot of luck involved. And if there is any driver on the grid who needs some luck right now, it’s Kyle Busch.

Can Kyle Busch win it this time?

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You can be a two-time Cup Series champion. You can be the winningest active driver. But until you win ‘The Great American Race,’ things look incomplete. And that’s exactly what has happened with Busch. So far, the Las Vegas native has made 19 Daytona 500 starts, and he even came close to winning it in 2019. But Denny Hamlin was just uncatchable. So Busch had to settle for a P2.

And last year Busch was P12. But this year the odds are looking in his favor. In fact, some of the other prediction websites like Caesar Sportsbook or FanDuel show him as the top contender to win this year. This is probably influenced because he finished P2 last year at the Daytona International Speedway in August. Remember the Coke Zero Sugar 400? Busch was set to win, but Harrison Burton took the lead on the last stretch, leaving Busch in agony after yet another race slipped away. And the last time Busch won here was in 2008, so it would be great for him to bag another one at the iconic track.

And this year winning the 500 is at the top of the list for Busch. He had said, “Certainly winning the Daytona 500 is top of the list. We’ve talked about it a long time and I feel that would be really cool. To win that one would certainly be awesome.” 

Also, if he manages to pull off a win, he’d be repeating racing history. The year was 1998, Dale Earnhardt Sr. was in his iconic #3 Goodwrench car for Richard Childress Racing entering his 20th attempt. After being denied a Daytona 500 win for his entire career despite owning the most wins on the track, Earnhardt Sr. finally won it! 2025 marks Busch’s 20th season too, only it would be the #8 RCR car this time. Who do you think stands a better chance at winning their first Daytona 500? Kyle Busch or Kyle Larson?