Hendrick Motorsports star Kyle Larson is a big favorite to win this weekend’s race at Kansas Speedway. Having been to victory lane five times already this season, he is on the verge of adding yet another one. Mile-and-a-half intermediates have been Larson’s favorite hunting ground in 2024, and he was the winner of the spring race in Kansas.

But his old foe and rival Denny Hamlin is standing in his way. Although the HMS star got back to winning ways, the veteran JGR driver is yet to find his lost mojo. There was a rivalry storyline brewing up in the regular season between Larson and Hamlin. Things even got out of control when they tussled hard at Nashville, and the HMS driver even tried to take Hamlin out of commission. While this aggressive nature has brought him success on the racetracks but has also resulted in wrecks and crashes. So the challenge for him this weekend will be to keep his rival at bay and, at the same time, keep his nose clean.

Kyle Larson is a beast on intermediate racetracks

NASCAR analyst and statistician, Greg Matherne, also Director, Sports Betting Content, was featured on the Out of the Groove show. While Greg is known for compiling data from previous races and bundling them into a package, it allows the fans to see beyond the regular statistics. What’s more interesting is that he comes up with data on drivers in a particular format of race. And this week all the talk was about Kyle Larson and his prowess on intermediate tracks.

“I look at handicapping Kansas; the three primary tracks I’m looking at Kansas, Vegas Darlington, and Homestead. They are the intermediate package, higher wear tracks. And he has been dominant at that track type in 2024. He’s led 522 laps at those three venues this year. That’s 45% of the laps he’s run. Let’s get back even more in Gen 7; in total, he’s got 5 wins at this track type in 18 races. He’s led 1481 laps; that’s almost three times what Denny has led.” Greg Matherne said this while speaking on Eric Estepp’s show on YouTube.

While the HMS driver has been impressive on the 1.5-mile intermediates, he will need to keep a check on his aggression. Particularly while competing with Denny Hamlin as their rivalry runs deep. The two drivers have finished 1-2 six times, and Hamlin has always gotten the better of him. So it is possible that the HMS star would want to turn the trajectory of this statistic. But this is going to be a slippery slope for him given his rate of DNFs.

“If there’s any mark to put up against him, it’s his DNF rate. In 18 races, he’s got four DNFs that’s a 22% DNF rate. The field has about a 14% DNF rate. Sometimes he gets loose when he’s being aggressive at these tracks, and he wrecks himself out. But he’s got to be the favorite,” Greg added. However, there’s a bigger threat looming for Larson other than Hamlin, who just might take home the win at Kansas.

Tyler Reddick could get back on track with a win at Kansas

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The 23XI Racing driver could be scripting an underdog story in the playoffs. Although Kyle Larson had four wins in the regular season, he couldn’t topple Reddick to win the regular season championship. This just goes to show how consistent and up to the task the driver of the #45 Camry has been. But since then, he’s fired blanks in the three races of the playoffs so far and just made it through thanks to the playoff bonus points.

Luckily for him, he resumes his challenge at a track that has fared him well; he is the defending race winner at Kansas. Not only that, he’s got some statistics in his favor to go up against the mighty Larson. “Reddick has more fast laps than anybody else (at Kansas). He’s got 141; now Larson’s down at 129. So Larson’s been really good here, but Reddick overall is the leader in that area,” Greg Matherne added.

Reddick crew-chief Scott Billy also felt good about the stretch of races coming, which might allow the team to gain the lost momentum. “We’re excited to get into it. Having won Kansas this race last year in the playoffs and then having won Talladega the last time there. And then expect a run at the Roval too. I mean, this is a good round we feel like and hope to keep the momentum going.” Scott said this on the MRN Crew Call podcast.

It’s starting to look like Kyle Larson vs. the Toyota drivers, and it will be interesting to see who comes out on top this Sunday.