The thing about NASCAR – or any motorsport, for that matter – is that success in the sport depends primarily on skill. Primarily, but not entirely. That’s because every once in a while, things outside a driver’s control need to fall into place, which brings in an element of luck. And that’s precisely the situation Bubba Wallace is in right now.

23XI Racing is not having the best time if we compare their 2024 campaign to last season. Despite a few last-lap heartbreaks, the No.45 team with Tyler Reddick is soaring high this year, with a solid chance in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Bubba Wallace side of the garage is not looking so good. They are inside the bubble and may very well miss playoffs this time. But it all depends on Kyle Busch.

As a rival, Busch may not make it easy for Wallace for the upcoming weekend. The Richard Childress Racing driver is on the same sinking ship as the No.23 driver, wallowing in misery with lower points. However, Pocono Raceway is like a playground for ‘Rowdy,’ which just draws questions about Wallace’s luck.

Bubba Wallace is bound for a tough fight

After Joey Logano secured a playoff position in Nashville, both Bubba Wallace and Kyle Busch’s ambitions darkened. Despite both of them being strong contenders at the Nashville Superspeedway, the result did nothing to improve their playoff situation.

Now that another race is done and dusted in Chicago, very little time is left. Wallace now stands 15th in the points standings, 45 points behind. At the same time, Kyle Busch is on Bubba’s tail in 17th, 98 points from the cutline. Now, The Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono Raceway can bring a number of possibilities into the mix.

Although Kyle Busch is in the midst of a 41-race winless streak, past memories may come alive for him as we reach the Tricky Triangle. Busch ranks second among the active drivers who have won most races at Pocono. He has visited Victory Lane four times (2017, ’18, ’19,’ 21) there. In contrast, Bubba Wallace holds a single top-5 and a pair of top-10s in his 11 starts at Pocono. But that is not all.

Besides Kyle Busch, Bubba Wallace faces some other Pocono heavyweights as well. There are more former winners who are desperately hunting for a win, like Martin Truex Jr and Chris Buescher. So Wallace is in a soup, as tackling these bigwigs is a task, as he himself admitted a short while ago. “You’re going up against the best of the best. And that’s what makes you show up the following week is when you do get beat, you got things to work on and it’s the competition side of things.”

Last year, Wallace secured a spot in the playoffs only after the regular season finale, sealing 10th place in the standings. Making it to his first playoff, he achieved it without a win. However, with just six races left, he wants things to go differently. At least, that’s what he said last weekend in Chicago. “I’m quite tired of having to do it on points, you know? We always seem to find ourselves right around the bubble and it gets stressful. Every race that goes by and you don’t win, it gets more and more stressful.”

Until the weekend in Nashville, it was Bubba Wallace and Joey Logano jostling for the 16th and final spot in the standings, alternating above and below the cutline. Back then, there were six spots left, but after his win at the Nashville Superspeedway, Logano sealed his spot. The following weekend in Chicago, Alex Bowman – who had a tangle with Wallace – ensured another playoff spot was gone. So, if the No.23 driver can’t eke out a win in the next six races, it’ll come down to points again – something Wallace doesn’t want.

“Knowing that we can do it on points…we did it last year. But it would be nice just to win. Then you can start doing crazy stuff to try something in the regular season. But right now, we have to play the game, and hopefully, we’re in the right spot at the right time to win it.” Speaking of doing crazy stuff, Bubba Wallace shot himself in the foot last weekend as he aggressively bumped into Alex Bowman during the cooldown lap. Although his Hendrick rival acquitted him of any wrongdoing, NASCAR was not so kind.

Getting slapped with a $50,000 fine must have rubbed salt in the 23XI driver’s wounds. We can only wait and see if Wallace can turn around his fortunes like he did last year. Meanwhile, the Richard Childress Racing No. 8 team’s condition does not look too good, either. However, personnel within the team are constantly hopeful about a miracle.

RCR replacement is looking to ignite an old flame

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The RCR team used to herald the brightest talents during NASCAR’s golden age. Legendary Cup drivers like Dale Earnhardt, Robby Gordon, Kevin Harvick, and others soared the team to glory. The team has left a glittering trail with 116 Cup victories to its name. Even Kyle Busch added to those achievements in 2023 with his three wins. So, although RCR is facing a slump this year, his folks are hopeful.

Like the No.8 crew chief, Randall Burnett, who held hope, interim competition director Keith Rodden also believes the team can bring back its former glory. “We’re a top-tier Chevrolet team, and we owe it to all our partners to win. Part of changing the narrative and changing the culture of RCR is it has a rich history of winning, and we need to get there. This is the same group that won three races last year and everybody’s already forgotten. These guys know how to win.”

Touching upon what could very well be a road map moving forward, he said, “We don’t need to just hit the panic button. We just need to get the car under him to where he can run.” Evidently, the No.8 team is fighting a war to once again make their way to victory lane. And now, Pocono gives Kyle Busch a strong chance to regain his foothold, which could be bad news for Bubba Wallace.