In NASCAR, the only thing tougher than winning is keeping your seat. Just ask Matt Kenseth, who found himself unexpectedly out of a ride at Joe Gibbs Racing in 2018 despite years of success, only to be replaced by a young Erik Jones. Or Erik Jones himself, who was later pushed aside at JGR to make room for Christopher Bell. The garage is no place for sentimentality; it’s a results-driven business, and if the numbers aren’t there, your seat is not guaranteed. With no Cup Series wins in the last two seasons, his teammate surpassing him and others lurking for a shot, Bubba Wallace is staring at the same cold hard reality at 23XI. While Wallace acknowledges that he

Wallace and Tyler Reddick come from the same high-profile team co-owned by NBA icon Michael Jordan and three-time Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin. The expectation is understandable. But both drivers have access to the same data, equipment, and the same chance to excel. Yet, Reddick finished considerably better than Wallace last year en route to the regular season title. Now, that Riley Herbst has signed full-time with 23XI, the pressure on Wallace to deliver results is more than ever.

Kevin Harvick, now retired from full-time racing in NASCAR, but an important voice in the world of racing, did not mince words when he discussed the impact that the new generation of talent arriving in the sport has on the drivers. The changing of guard is only natural and if you are not living up to the standards in a results-oriented business such as NASCAR, your replacement might just be around the corner.

On Tuesday, Harvick was joined by Kaitlyn Vincie and Mamba Smith on his Happy Hour podcast. The group discussed the action from Circuit of the Americas, including Christopher Bell’s second straight Cup Series victory, and then Vincie had an interesting question for Harvick. “I’m kinda curious to when a young, new promising driver talent comes in. What kind of dynamic is that creating in the garage for some of the guys who maybe aren’t performing as they need to and they know there is this new kid on the block? What kind of environment does that cultivate in the garage area?”

“Well, you start looking around,” Harvick said. “Let’s just take (Carson) Hocevar for example. When you look at Justin Haley and Michael McDowell, right? He’s ultra fast when he is in the same car, that immediately puts the pressure on those two teammates. So, you know, a new guy coming in like that, it makes everybody have to stand up and pay attention because somebody’s going to lose their seat when it’s all said and done.”

Hocevar has taken the spotlight at Spire Motorsports with his aggressive driving. At 22, he is lined up for his second full season in the Cup Series behind the wheel of the No. 77 Chevrolet. While Justin Haley in the No. 7 car, is another young driver who has showcased his own bursts of potential, it is Hocevar who spearheads the charge at Spire. Harvick then came up with another example of a young driver brimming with potential and in doing so, might have just fired a subtle warning at Bubba Wallace.

“You look at a guy like Corey Heim. There’s just constantly pressure from somebody new coming in. If you don’t elevate your game and you don’t pay attention to the ovals and the road courses and you better block your whole life out for it, because if you don’t, somebody else is going to because that’s what it takes at this level,” Harvick mentioned. 

Harvick here is talking about the new talent rising through 23XI’s driver development program, Corey Heim. At just 22, he has already made waves in the Truck Series as one of the most dominant drivers. He has 12 wins as he enters just his third full season with Tricon Garage for the Toyota camp.

Last year, Heim made headlines when he replaced an injured Erik Jones at Legacy Motor Club and then impressed with a pair of solid runs at Dover and Kansas. He also raced a third entry for 23XI at Nashville, where he raced inside of the top 15 until he was involved in a late-race crash.

In February, 23XI Racing officially announced Heim as the team’s development driver, which will allow him to add some Cup races this year and it looks like Hamlin and Jordan might have an eye on the future. Heim’s arrival, combined with consistent performance from Tyler Reddick, who led the team to their first-ever championship race is indeed raising eyebrows within the 23XI camp. Not to forget, they’ve now added Riley Herbst, who has outperformed Wallace in two races out of three this season. This does paint an uneasy picture for Wallace, who has had a difficult last two seasons.

He reached the playoffs in 2023 but went out in the Round of 12. Wallace started the 2024 season strongly, earning top-five finishes at Daytona and Atlanta, but a lack of consistency, coupled with some unfortunate finishes hurt his chances as he missed the playoffs. The 31-year-old is in his fifth season at 23XI and his last Cup Series win came in 2022.

Now one might argue that his future is secure given that he signed a multi-year extension with 23XI Racing last year. But, we’ve seen the tides change within the Cup garage before and Wallace by no means is secure if performances on the track don’t turn around. Wallace also understands this and is eager to put things right.

In January, he posted a thread on X, talking about the new season and how he is looking to do better this time around. “Excited for this season to get underway. Took it upon myself to be better and do better. Got my a** kicked the last 2 seasons, plain and simple.” He then added in another post, “No shame in saying that. Using it as motivation. I’ve been rocking the ‘just get by’ mentality for too long. Focused on my well being most importantly. Eating right, drinking right. Working out. Tired of looking like the grinch (can’t help the hair).”

While Wallace crashed and had a DNF at the Daytona 500, he won the Duel 1 at Daytona days earlier. He also finished ninth at Atlanta in the second race of the season but could only muster a 20th-place finish at the Circuit of Americas. As such, there is some way to go for Wallace to once again cement his authority among 23XI’s ranks.

Meanwhile, for the fans of 23XI Racing and Toyota, the introduction of new developmental program drivers means good and exciting times ahead, but for veterans like Wallace, trouble is ahead. Nothing is guaranteed, not even your race seat.

The rise of drivers like Christopher Bell, Corey Heim, and Toni Breidinger in NASCAR, shines a light on the Toyota Gazoo Racing’s robust driver development program. This raises the question, where is its Ford equivalent?

The Battle for the Future: Ford vs Toyota

Once a powerhouse in developing young drivers, the Ford Academy has since fallen off the map. While Toyota is actively investing in the future of its racing, Ford looks to be missing out. Toyota’s holistic approach to young driver development is now showing results. Christopher Bell has become a household name in NASCAR, winning back-to-back races and Corey Heim is now integrated into 23XI Racing.

Compared to this, Ford’s development driver program is nowhere near the level of success Toyota’s program is having at the moment. Once a breeding ground for future champions, Ford has struggled to produce consistent results in the recent past. While they still have talented drivers in their program, they lack a driver development system like Toyota, which can help them with long-term success. Or is it simply the case of relying on established veterans to carry the torch and neglecting the young drivers who are the future? 

Imagine a future, where Toyota has a roster of successful drivers in the NASCAR field while the American manufacturer struggles to keep up. This could lead to an imbalance in the sport, which can affect the viewership and interest of the fans. Will Ford wake up and realize the severity of the problem or will they continue to watch from the sidelines as Toyota takes the flag every time?