The 2024 season so far has been a Kyle Larson show! It really shaped out to back his tall claim of being the best all-round driver in the world. The Hendrick Motorsports driver, after the recent Charlotte ROVAL race, has managed to bag six wins with four more races to go in the season. For a large part of the regular season, Larson topped the table after narrowly missing out on the regular season championship to Tyler Reddick.

So far in the season, no driver has come close to the #5 if stats were compared. Opposed to his 6 wins, most races other drivers have won are 3, all being his close championship contenders, William Byron, Christopher Bell, and Denny Hamlin. Larson’s performance has made him a top pick for NASCAR veteran Kevin Harvick.

While Larson would probably not beat his best Cup season stats of 2021, where he managed 10 wins and a championship, it would most likely end up being his second-best. Larson has been consistent in the 2024 season, with 13 top 5s the most so far by any driver this season. He’s even led 1,614 laps, nearly double that of Denny Hamlin in second place, leading 918 laps. Larson’s also the only playoff driver to bag a win in each round of the playoffs, so far, this season.

The stats can go on and on backing Larson’s championship chances, Kevin Harvick agrees. In the recent episode of the “Happy Hour” podcast, he said, “I think so (he’s the frontrunner for the championship). We haven’t seen anybody else dominate like Kyle Larson has throughout really that whole season. We have seen some guys have good weekends and put together pieces of races but I can’t think back to a race where anybody else has dominated other than Kyle Larson for the most part, consistently being able to lead laps and do things that he does and all the different styles of race tracks.” And not just this season, Larson has the most wins (13) in the next-gen era.

According to Kevin Harvick and the stats mentioned, no other driver is adding up to the best Larson. “I don’t know that there’s going to be somebody that’s going to eliminate Kyle Larson off the race track other than circumstances and some sort of catastrophic mistake based upon the performance that they have had all year.” Other than the unforeseen circumstances, or as Jeff Gordon had previously predicted, the hard part is now over for Larson.

The HMS vice president has said that if Larson can survive the challenge of drafting tracks in the first two rounds, the final one should be a cakewalk. Gordon had said, “That round is so strong for him. You’ve got Homestead(-Miami Speedway), Martinsville (Speedway), and (Las) Vegas (Motor Speedway). Homestead and Vegas, I think, are two of his best tracks. If he gets to that round, I feel like it’s a near lock – especially with the bonus points he brings to the rounds – to get to Phoenix.”

Larson has weathered the uncertainties of the first two rounds, where he faced a DNF in Atlanta and a P26 finish in Kansas. However, how do the next few races stack up for the veteran? As it would be key in determining his chances for the title.

Kyle Larson’s chances in the next round

Speaking about the nature of the tracks in the next round, Harvick said, “So whenever you look at the next race at Las Vegas, then you look at Homestead, Martinsville is kind of one of those races tracks where there is more contenders than probably you’d put in the next two race tracks. But I think leans into the traditional mile and half race tracks (Las Vegas and Homestead), the traditional short track at Martinsville as we go into this third round of the playoffs.

• In Larson’s 12-year-long Cup career, his average finish on mile-and-half tracks has been 13.3, which is commendable. Out of the 7 races on such tracks so far this season, Larson has won twice (Las Vegas and Kansas) and finished four times in the top 10. The first race in the next round is at Las Vegas, a track that is Larson’s stronghold. Since 2021, the #5 has thrice won at the track, back-to-back on the last two occasions. His average finish has been 7.4.
• Post this is Homestead Miami, where Larson would be hoping to do better than last year when he crashed out of the race. Despite the fact the fact that Homestead has too seen good runs from Larson, he won the 2022 race. Out of the 10 times he’s raced there, 8 have been top-15 finishes, and on 5 occasions he’s managed top-5 finishes.
• The eliminator for the round of 8 will be Martinsville. Larson has always been dominant on short tracks, with an average finish of 13.3 on these tracks. His most recent Bristol race comes to mind, where he led 462 out of the 500 laps to win the race.
• Out of the 6 short track races this season, 4 have been top-5 finishes for Larson. And Martinsville, especially, has been the veteran’s favorite. He won the race last year and finished in P2 this year in the spring. In fact, out of the last 10 races, 6 have been top-10 finishes for the 2021 Cup Champion.

Overall, it seems like it should be easy for Larson to make it to the top 4. And hopefully, he can up his 2023 season finish (2nd) to a second championship. What do you think are his chances to bag the title? Let us know in the comments below.