OEM support is a big deal in NASCAR racing. Among the current OEM partners in NASCAR, the Toyota Racing Department (TRD) started grooming their future drivers from the grassroots level. Being signed to the TRD program is a big deal for young drivers hoping to make it big. And, in Hailie Deegan’s case, the company did pave the way for her to break through on the NASCAR stage.

The 23-year-old had the best time of her racing career in NASCAR at the K&N Pro Series. She claimed three wins in two years she was at Bill McAnally Racing and looked like a serious contender every time she stepped up to race. She even attracted praise from Kevin Harvick and even considered bringing Deegan under KHI. However, in 2020, she jumped ships from Toyota to Ford camp, and according to Harvick, this was the defining moment of her NASCAR career until now.

Did Hailie Deegan make the right choice by ditching the TRD program?

The first season in ARCA was a smooth ride for Deegan driving the #4 DGR-Crosley, as she had a streak of top-10 finishes. She even came close to winning two races at Daytona and Illinois State Fairgrounds Racetrack with runner-up results. But her move to the Truck Series is where her troubles started and carried on until her disappointing end at the Xfinity level.

With just five top-10 results across three full-time seasons, Deegan raced at the Truck Series level. It was evident that she had lost her mojo and confidence in trying to adapt to this new racing. But she took a huge gamble by joining AM Racing to run a full season in the Xfinity Series, which eventually ended on a bitter note.

Although she’s found a new home at HMD Motorsports in the INDY NXT Series, Kevin Harvick couldn’t help but look back at her decision to leave TRD. “Look, we can go back and talk about this scenario, and the moment that she stepped out of that Toyota program here was kind of the end and turning point of NASCAR piece of what Hailie Deegan does. As soon as she got out of that Toyota system and went into the situation that she got in with Ford, it just spiraled out of control in the wrong direction.”

However, he did wish the young driver the best in her new adventures in open-wheel racing and bounce back after a tough few years in NASCAR. “It’s going to be a tough transition because it’s a completely different car. I don’t know much about the INDY NXT program and everything that goes with it. But I’m glad that she’s, hopefully, she’s happy and being able to race and do something that she’s enjoying… So hopefully she gets a fresh restart over there.”

While it might look like Deegan’s inability to pilot the #15 entry saw her get the boot from AM Racing, the reality is far from it. And this comes to light when you compare her numbers in 17 races to those of other drivers.

AM Racing has problems of its own

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Hailie Deegan’s struggles driving the #15 Ford car in 2024 have been well documented. Races at Daytona, Phoenix, and Darlington were some of her worst, as she couldn’t get her wheels rolling. But the bigger problem was the lack of consistent results—not even top 20 finishes. Her best came at Talladega Superspeedway, where she finished 12th and could’ve finished better if she had the support of fellow Ford drivers.

This was the story of her 17 races where she had an average finishing position of 26.82. After her exit, six drivers took command of the #15 entry, which included Joey Logano, Josh Berry, and Lawless Alan. All of their races combined have an average finishing place of 26.25. This makes you wonder if AM Racing was putting unrealistic demands on Deegan’s shoulders.

If we were to take out Logano’s two top 10 results in the mix, the average trickles down to 28.88. This shows that it’s not the drivers who are always at fault, but despite the lack of competitive speed, it was Deegan who had to take the fall. It certainly will be interesting to see how she performs in the open wheel in the INDY NXT Series in 2025.