AJ Allmendinger is no stranger to high-pressure battles in the NASCAR Xfinity Series. If you rewind to 2021, the Kaulig Racing driver was the guy to watch — a regular-season champion, a five-time race winner, and the driver who delivered some of the most electrifying moments of the season.

Yet, despite all that momentum, his championship dreams fizzled out under the scorching Arizona sun at Phoenix Raceway. Fast forward to 2024, he once again finds himself in the Championship 4, but AJ’s approach and journey till this point have been wildly different. He’s had a much rockier road this time around, but don’t let that fool you. Allmendinger believes he’s more ready than ever to tackle the season finale, with a mindset and a strategy that’s refined and recharged.

Let’s dive into how AJ’s 2024 title chase has unfolded and why he thinks this year’s challenge is nothing like his, as he puts it, “miracle-needing” 2021 attempt.

From dominance to dogfight for AJ Allmendinger: 2021 vs. 2024

Back in 2021, AJ Allmendinger was on fire. Driving the No. 16 Chevrolet for Kaulig Racing, he seemed almost untouchable at times. His season was studded with five victories, each showcasing his versatility. The spring race in Las Vegas saw him set the tone early with a dominant win. He followed that up with two more wins in Mid-Ohio and Michigan proving he was just as comfortable on road courses as he was on high-speed ovals. AJ Allmendinger then capped off the regular season in Bristol with a heart-stopping, door-banging finish against Austin Cindric that secured him the regular-season championship.

Jumping back to the present 2024 season, and it’s clear the 42-year-old Californian’s journey to Phoenix this year has been anything but smooth. Instead of racking up multiple wins like he did in 2021, he’s only stood on the top step of the podium once — back at Las Vegas. His stats, on paper, don’t jump out quite as brightly: 17 top 10s with only seven top five finishes compared to his whopping 22 top 10s (18 of those top fives) in 2021.

Yet, despite the rough patches — or maybe because of them — AJ Allmendinger feels more confident heading into Phoenix this time around. He’s battled through a season filled with setbacks, crashes, and mid-pack finishes. “There was a time where I thought, ‘God, I gotta stop crashing. This is unbelievable,’” AJ confessed on SiriusXM NASCAR Radio. But those struggles have seemingly forged a stronger, more determined team.

Reflecting on how 2024 has shaped up, AJ was candid and honest as he admitted, “This year, I think I finished last like five times. We just haven’t had the raw speed most of the year until the last couple of months. All of a sudden, we found something.” And that late-season spark could be just what they need to flip the script at Phoenix.

What’s changed the most for AJ and Kaulig Racing this year is their mindset. Instead of banking on bonus points to bail them out, they’ve been laser-focused on finding performance. “We’ve done this a completely different way this year,” Allmendinger said. “We’ve had to dig deep, but we’ve built way more belief and confidence. This time, we’re not hoping for a miracle.”

Confidence at Phoenix: A New Attitude for a New Challenge

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So, what’s the game plan for Phoenix this weekend? AJ Allmendinger knows it’s not the easiest track for him. “Phoenix is not the greatest racetrack for us,” he admits. But that hasn’t stopped him and his team from putting in the work to turn things around. “We’ve been working hard on it,” AJ added, hinting that they’ve unlocked something in their setups recently that could make them genuine contenders.

While 2021 felt like a fairytale season that needed a magical ending, 2024 feels more like a hard-fought, grind-it-out story. “I’d say with 100% confidence, we have way more belief this year,” AJ emphasized. It’s clear that, despite having fewer wins and lower stats, the lessons learned from fighting through adversity have made this team tougher and hungrier than ever.

With 15 bonus playoff points in his pocket, AJ seemed destined for greatness. He kept the momentum rolling into the playoffs, bagging another win at the Charlotte Roval — his playground of sorts, where he snagged a third consecutive victory. All eyes were on him heading into the Phoenix finale. Yet, despite his strong showing all season, Phoenix turned into a heartbreaker. AJ’s car just didn’t have the speed or handling to keep up with the top contenders, leaving him to watch from a distance as Daniel Hemric pulled off a last-lap stunner to steal the championship.

Reflecting on that 2021 run, AJ admitted that despite how it looked from the outside, it wasn’t all sunshine and checkered flags, saying, “I went into Phoenix thinking I probably need these three guys to wreck to even have a shot. We were just managing each weekend, really being saved by the bonus points.”

As the 2024 finale looms, AJ Allmendinger isn’t coming in as the odds-on favorite like he was in 2021, but that’s exactly what makes him dangerous. This year, he’s not waiting for miracles — he’s ready to make his own luck.