“Shane’s world-class,” AJ Allmendinger declared after the Kiwi speedster cruised to Portland’s Victory Lane this year. That was not the first time Shane van Gisbergen made Allmendinger’s jaws drop, as two more road course wins followed. The Kaulig Racing Xfinity star was left doubting his own road racing skills, for which he is known. Now as we dust off the chaos of Talladega and head to the Roval, Allmendinger is concerned.

This marks almost a 360-degree shift from his confidence last year. The No. 16 Chevrolet driver captured the Charlotte Motor Speedway playoff race this time last year. This time, however, he faces a formidable rival – and Allmendinger almost bows in awe and admiration.

Shane van Gisbergen sending ripples of doubt

When the three-time Supercars champion shifted to the US from New Zealand, nobody expected him to create much noise. Another Supercars driver, Marcos Ambrose, managed only two Cup Series wins across the 2006- 2014 seasons. However, Shane van Gisbergen has already surpassed that number barely a year after his first Cup race. That first race was enough to hammer home how big of a road course ace Gisbergen is – he won the rain-delayed Chicago Street Race on his NASCAR debut! This year, he won the Portland, Sonoma, and Chicago Xfinity races.

So Allmendinger has good reason to feel apprehensive about his chances at the Roval. He talked to NASCAR recently about his dwindling confidence. “You know, I looked at Talladega as a race I was like, I’ve probably got more of a chance to win there than I do at the Roval.” Then he observed the subtle line between himself and Shane van Gisbergen. “He’s just worked through it better and obviously, he’s had really good success. So we feel the car the same. But some of these race tracks, he’s figured out what to do. He’s really good at rolling corner speed, and that’s what I’ve noticed. So like Sonoma was a place that, following him, I tried to drive exactly like he was doing, and I just didn’t have lateral grip, and he makes it work.”

Given SVG’s history in the Supercar series, it should be no surprise that he has an advantage when it comes to rolling corner speed. The Supercar series hosts tracks similar to road courses from NASCAR. Drivers from these series are forced to understand how to take these corners in a car that has low downforce. With how the Next-Gen car works, with the lowered downforce and increased power, SVG has this massive advantage compared to rivals.

Allmendinger owns 14 road-race victories in the Cup and Xfinity series, the most all-time across the sport’s three series. But this year, he crashed out at Chicago and Watkins Glen. So he thinks the jittery feelings would be there even in Shane van Gisbergen‘s absence. “On the Xfinity side of it, for sure, it’s just — because if you take SVG out, I don’t win any of the races this year. It’d be different if SVG was winning and I’m running second and I’m like, ‘yeah, just got to figure out a way to beat my teammate.’ But like, literally, if he’s not in the race, I still don’t win any of those races.”

The unique Roval layout this year is another factor that makes Allmendinger apprehensive.

NASCAR’s innovation may be daunting

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A year can make a lot of difference. AJ Allmendinger may have won the 2023 Roval race, but he will face something entirely different in 2024. NASCAR has reconfigured the road course of Charlotte Motor Speedway, featuring a longer straightaway between Turns 5 and 6. This would set up a sweeping right-handed Turn 6 into an extremely tight left-handed hairpin at Turn 7. Additionally, the front stretch chicane’s Turn 15 entry dives further left to set up a sharper, near-90-degree right Turn 16. Although Allmendinger believes there will be more passing opportunities, there is one problem. He is wary about the hairpin.

The road course expert got down to the nitty-gritty of the revamped track. “It’s kind of where you get on the brakes. It kind of reminds me a little bit — not maybe as extreme downhill — but like Chicago, downright by the city section thereby all the hotels and stuff. So it’ll open it up, especially in Xfinity, I think, for wheel-hopping over that rise. But yeah, I can definitely see using the bumper in the right-hand section. But the problem is, if you do that, you’ve got the next hairpin left-hander. So I think desperation and stuff, there’s gonna be a lot of dive-bombs at the hairpin. I think that’s kind of where we’re gonna see a lot of the action.”

Evidently, Shane van Gisbergen is not the only roadblock Allmendinger will face this weekend. Let us see if he will be able to overcome the odds and defend his 2023 Roval victory.