Shane Van Gisbergen registered his first Xfinity Series win at Portland this year. A week later, he was celebrating his second win after driving to victory lane at Sonoma. A third win followed nearly a month later. Though in the playoffs, he sits 10 points behind the cutoff lane going into the elimination race, this has been a strong showing by the Kiwi.

This is something that his teammate, AJ Allmendinger also acknowledged, praising his ability to handle certain tracks better than him which has put him at an advantage. Notably, Allmendinger is without a win this season and he pointed out the difference between SVG and his own racing ability which has proved to be the reason behind their contrasting fortunes this season.

Shane van Gisbergen sending ripples of doubt

The Xfinity drivers head to the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval for the elimination race, where AJ Allmendinger has a perfect four-for-four record. So the No. 16 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet should be feeling confident about his chances, right? Well, if anything, there is some doubt creeping in.

Speaking to NASCAR Allmendinger displayed a surprising lack of conviction for the race at the track that has brought him great success. “I go into this weekend probably with the least amount of confidence that I ever been going into the Roval,” Allmendinger said on October 6 during media availability. “You know, I looked at Talladega as a race I was like, I’ve probably got more of a chance to win there than I do at the Roval.”

Allmendinger has 14 road-race victories in the NASCAR Cup and Xfinity series, the most all-time across the sport’s three national series. However, he is winless through 28 contests this year. During the conversation, he brought up his teammate SVG has been able to maneuver the tracks to find success this season and what he himself has lacked.

“The thing is, Shane and I, when we talk about the cars, I think we feel them fairly close to the same of what we fight. He’s just worked through it better and obviously he’s had really good success…So we feel the car the same. But some of these race tracks, he’s figured out what to do. He’s really good at rolling corner speed, and that’s what I’ve noticed. So like Sonoma was a place that, following him, I tried to drive exactly like he was doing, and I just didn’t have lateral grip, and he makes it work,” the  No. 16 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet driver said.

Allmendinger mentioned the SVG’s ability to use the heel-toe method of shifting, using his right heel to brake and toes to blip the throttle while downshifting and utilizing his left foot on the clutch has proved to be decisive. That clutch usage also allows SVG to skip gears if he so chooses, matching RPMs with the gas pedal.

Given SVG’s history in the Supercar series, it should be no surprise that he has an advantage when it comes to rolling corner speed. The Supercar series hosts tracks similar to road courses from NASCAR. Drivers from these series are forced to understand how to take these corners in a car that has low downforce. With how the Next-Gen car works, with the lowered downforce and increased power, SVG has this massive advantage compared to rivals. But as Allmendinger, he has not been able to replicate it.

“I haven’t figured out what that is, what I struggle with. You know, I can pinpoint it; just haven’t figured out what that is and how to make it better,” he said.

When SVG moved to the US from New Zealand, nobody expected him to create much noise. Another Supercars driver, Marcos Ambrose, managed only two Cup Series wins across the 2006- 2014 seasons. However, Shane van Gisbergen has already surpassed that number barely a year after his first Cup race. That first race was enough to hammer home how big of a road course ace Gisbergen is – he won the rain-delayed Chicago Street Race on his NASCAR debut! This year, he won the Portland, Sonoma, and Chicago Xfinity races.

Allmendinger owns 14 road-race victories in the Cup and Xfinity series, the most all-time across the sport’s three series. But this year, he crashed out at Chicago and Watkins Glen and is winless in 28 races.

So he thinks the jittery feelings would be there even in Shane van Gisbergen‘s absence. “On the Xfinity side of it, for sure, it’s just — because if you take SVG out, I don’t win any of the races this year. It’d be different if SVG was winning and I’m running second and I’m like, ‘yeah, just got to figure out a way to beat my teammate.’ But like, literally, if he’s not in the race, I still don’t win any of those races.”

Despite being without a win, there have been improvements that Allmendinger can point to over the last dozen races.  He has had 11 top 11s since the 15th race of the season at Iowa in June. Even though he may be feeling a little underconfident, he is heading to Roval with the intention of defending his title.

“I’m showing up to win the race, but I only put the expectations on me to go run well,” he mentioned. Next year, Allmendinger will move to the Cup Series full-time for Kaulig, and as such Roval will present a chance to get back to the winning ways before he makes the jump.

But it won’t be easy for him to repeat his previous wins. The unique Roval layout this year is another factor that makes Allmendinger apprehensive.

NASCAR’s innovation may be daunting

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A year can make a lot of difference. AJ Allmendinger may have won the 2023 Roval race, but he will face something entirely different in 2024. NASCAR has reconfigured the road course of Charlotte Motor Speedway, featuring a longer straightaway between Turns 5 and 6. This would set up a sweeping right-handed Turn 6 into an extremely tight left-handed hairpin at Turn 7.

Additionally, the front stretch chicane’s Turn 15 entry dives further left to set up a sharper, near-90-degree right Turn 16. Although Allmendinger believes there will be more passing opportunities, there is one problem. He is wary about the hairpin.

The road course expert got down to the nitty-gritty of the revamped track. “It’s kind of where you get on the brakes. It kind of reminds me a little bit — not maybe as extreme downhill — but like Chicago, downright by the city section thereby all the hotels and stuff. So it’ll open it up, especially in Xfinity, I think, for wheel-hopping over that rise. But yeah, I can definitely see using the bumper in the right-hand section. But the problem is, if you do that, you’ve got the next hairpin left-hander. So I think desperation and stuff, there’s gonna be a lot of dive-bombs at the hairpin. I think that’s kind of where we’re gonna see a lot of the action.”

Evidently, Shane van Gisbergen is not the only roadblock Allmendinger will face this weekend. Let us see if he will be able to overcome the odds and defend his 2023 Roval victory.