Let us take you back to Bristol for a moment. It’s 2024, NASCAR has arrived at Bristol for the 5th race of the season, and fans from all over the country are making the pilgrimage to the Bristol Motor Speedway. This was the first race after the dirt experiment that NASCAR went back to the original concrete surface. But little did anyone expect that the Goodyear tire would throw every team and driver off their plans and strategy.

The Next-Gen car short track package was already facing a lot of heat from the fans. But, they got more than they could’ve expected during the night race at Bristol. The tire wear was back in the mix and it caught everyone off guard. Drivers struggled with managing their tires, everyone was left scratching their heads. Pit crews were working overtime as Bristol gave us another thriller. 54 lead change, a short track record was it was as if NASCAR had found the perfect tire for short ovals.

Denny Hamlin won this battle of tire attrition, although he was later fined and stripped of all his points due to Toyota messing with the engine, that’s a story for another day. As we prepare ourselves for the race at Phoenix, most of us are placing our bets on Team Penske, and with their record of good performance at Phoenix Raceway, they seem like the logical choice. Well, what if we told you that could be a risky gamble since NASCAR has thrown a wildcard into the mix, one that even the defending champion cannot figure out?

The Wildcard Entry at Phoenix

NASCAR announced earlier this year that they will be using the new Goodyear option tire for the spring weekend at Phoenix Raceway, the same as Richmond last year when they gave six primary sets of tires for the race and two sets of option tires to each Cup Series team. They provide more grip and are faster than the usual tires, but they wear off quicker too, which might lead to some interesting racing this weekend, like in Richmond when Austin Dillon used them to perfection to win and his 68-race winless streak.

Team Penske has always been a threat at Phoenix with Joey Logano defending his crown and Ryan Blaney boasting the best stats at Phoenix with 9 top-5 finishes in his last 12 appearances at Phoenix, including 6 podium finishes. But NASCAR has possibly thrown a wrench in their plans with an unknown variable which is the new Goodyear tire compound.

Even defending champion Joey Logano was baffled by the unpredictable nature of racing this tire brings. “You know as much as me…We have a few educated guesses on the way we think things are going to go, but we won’t know for sure until we get on the racetrack with it, right? I mean nobody knows how much faster it’s truly going to be,” Logano said in a press conference when asked about how the option tires will behave at Phoenix.

This air of uncertainty is troubling for Team Penske, who have always been the dominant force at the Phoenix Raceway. With the inclusion of new tires and their unknown nature, the team is essentially starting at the same level as everyone else, something that Roger Penske and his drivers were not hoping to do. The pressure is on them as they’ve failed to convert wins on speedways despite running well. Moreover, the likes of Hamlin, Christopher Bell, and Kyle Larson are expected to spread their wings on traditional ovals.

While the new option tires can make the racing thrilling with their unpredictable nature and high wear rate, they also have the potential to impact the championship itself.

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The Championship and Playoff Implications

Here’s where it gets interesting, ever since the new playoff system was introduced in 2014, with the new rule that you win one race and you are through to the playoffs. This has induced a degree of thrill and uncertainty into NASCAR, well, speaking of uncertainty, think of what these option tires can do to the playoff system.

Option tires have the potential to shake up the status quo, as shown by Austin Dillon winning his first race after a 68-race drought in Richmond with the help of option tires. This ability to create unpredictable race outcomes can shake up the championship, and not everyone is happy about it. Heck even Daniel Suarez was able to lead 93 laps last year at Richmond and eventually finish inside of the top 10. So there’s a possibility of a surprise winner taking home a win a spot in the playoffs thanks to NASCAR’s ingenious plans.

“I personally am not a fan of the option tire, because it adds a gimmick to the race and allows noncompetitive cars to otherwise be competitive off of a different strategy,” said Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell, who after winning two consecutive races is a favorite to win at Phoenix to achieve the historic three-peat. Meanwhile, Dale Jr. didn’t feel too bothered about its impact, “I mean when he (Suarez) got on the other tire and everyone else had the soft, he goes right back to where he was. I don’t expect it to really alter the results because I think these teams get smart and they’ll all end up on the same plan.”

Will the Phoenix weekend see a usual suspect set the tone for the weekend? Or will the option tires cause a disturbance in the playoff picture? One thing’s for sure, the Shriners Children’s 500 at Phoenix Raceway this weekend has the potential to be a turning point in the NASCAR Cup Series championship.