Since Tony Stewart announced the closing of SHR, the NASCAR landscape has been buzzing with uncertainty. This decision has put several drivers, including Josh Berry, Noah Gragson, and Cole Custer, as free agents in the market for other teams. And Noah Gragson stands out as a sought-after gem among these drivers.

Gragson’s stellar performance as a rookie with SHR in this year’s Cup season makes him a valuable prospect for teams looking to buy charters. However, as Martin Truex Jr considers retirement this season, JGR faces a critical dilemma. A dilemma that, if left unresolved, would prove too costly for Joe Gibbs and his racing team.

The potential exit of Bass Pro Shops from JGR

In a tweet on June 14, NASCAR insider Bob Pockrass commented on the potential effects of Martin Truex Jr’s retirement. The ball seems to be in RCR and other competing teams’ courts, but JGR might not fare well. As Pockrass noted, “Wouldn’t be surprised if Bass Pro ends up sponsoring Gragson wherever he lands. And would say no guarantees that it remains at JGR. Obviously Truex was a long-time driver for Bass Pro. The main JGR connection was the Bass Pro-Toyota partnership as its official vehicle.”

This scenario involving the $8 billion-worth company puts enormous pressure on JGR to find a suitable replacement and retain their crucial sponsor. And that is what also makes Noah Gragson the most sought-after driver amidst the silly season chaos. The 25-year-old has had ties with both Toyota and JGR before, as the Nevada native ran 3 races for Joe Gibbs’ team in the Xfinity Series in 2018. However, a shift to JGR is something the driver would think about from all angles possible.

After all, if Gragson thinks, “It sucks to lose to someone (Ty Gibbs) like that,” then why would he want that someone to be his teammate? And no one has forgotten how the new sponsor for Legacy Motor Club in 2024 reportedly preferred replacing Noah with John Hunter Nemechek. In addition, Gragson’s past endeavors and connections with Richard Childress Racing add another layer to this complex situation. Before joining Tony Stewart’s SHR, Gragson made 10 of 18 starts for Kaulig Racing in the Xfinity Series.

Kaulig operates on RCR’s campus and sources engines from Richard Childress-owned ECR. Hence, this connection suggests a potential move for Gragson to RCR. Journalist Jordan Bianchi recently claimed, “Noah Gragson might replace Austin Dillon in the No. 3 car at RCR.” However, Dale Earnhardt Jr, on Dale Jr Download, deemed this possibility “far-fetched.”

Gragson’s performance this season further solidifies his luck. With an average finish of 18.688 and 5 top-10 finishes, he has proven his worth as a rookie. Speculations also suggest that Gragson might join RCR with Bass Pro Shops’ backing if Truex Jr retires. DBC host Brett Griffin noted, “If Martin retires, it helps Noah’s scenario. If he doesn’t, it hurts Noah’s scenario.” This leaves us with one question: What are the other ways out for JGR?

Possible ways out of the maze

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To mitigate the potential loss of Bass Pro Shops, JGR could explore other options. Josh Berry, another driver from Tony Stewart’s SHR who has connections to Bass Pro, is a possible candidate. Berry, who has a relationship with Bass Pro and CEO Johnny Morris, has shown promise this season. With an average finish of 21.563 and 2 top-10 finishes, Berry is a strong contender. However, the lack of initiative from JGR to secure him might cost them. Front Row Motorsports and Wood Brothers Racing will likely acquire Berry, especially with FRM agreeing to buy a charter for $20-25 million.

Dale Earnhardt Jr echoed these sentiments. When questioned about the likelihood of JGR recruiting Josh Berry, he said, “Ty Gibbs raced with Josh in the CARS Tour. They know each other well. I think they have a great relationship. Josh has worked with Bass Pro in the past. So Johnny Morris and those folks at Bass Pro know who Josh is.” But Dale Jr was also quick to add a warning. He remarked, “That would depend on what Truex is going to do.”

Another solution for JGR is to sort out Ty Gibbs’ poor relationship with Gragson. For the team to save itself from this fiasco, it must address the temper tantrums of Joe Gibbs’ grandson. After the donut incident in Sonoma 250, this is not something that looks viable at the moment.

With a $7.7 billion media deal activating next year, JGR could use this sponsorship opportunity to capitalize on the viewership gains it might get from different streaming platforms. However, all this depends on a significant if — if Truex Jr decides to retire.