“Tried to avoid wrecks all day and just got in the last one,” Denny Hamlin painfully admitted after salvaging a 24th-place finish in Atlanta. Owning nine career wins in Daytona and Talladega, both Hamlin and Joey Logano are arguably the best superspeedway racers. But in terms of points, both ranked as the worst playoff drivers on drafting tracks in the 2024 season. Yet, one of them prevailed over the other at Atlanta Motor Speedway by worlds of difference. That coincidence could be attributed to their attitude; Joey Logano took some daring risks, while Denny Hamlin chose to be mediocre. And Hamlin’s failing strategy was visible mid-race as radio chatter revealed.

The three-time Daytona 500 winner knew what he was doing. In the past, drivers won at Daytona and Talladega after long stretches of riding, taking advantage of late-race wrecks. Joe Gibbs Racing has harbored this strategy for decades as even Tony Stewart and Bobby Labonte formed a half-throttle tandem on superspeedways. However, luck ran out for Denny Hamlin at the Quaker State 400. It turned out that drivers were too careful about their cars in Atlanta, thus resulting in fewer drafting-related wrecks.

“I did what I wanted to do, and that was lay in the back most of the race and try to see what attrition came about,” Denny Hamlin spoke about his strategy for Atlanta, yet, the JGR driver caught wind of the unique circumstance early in the race. Soon after Kyle Larson shot across the track bizarrely and slammed the wall, mysterious car handling issues appeared. So, Hamlin radioed his crew chief in a concerned voice: “I don’t like it Chris (Gabehart). I think they’re gonna wreck.”

These mechanical issues persisted for Larson’s Hendrick Motorsports teammate Chase Elliott as well. The No. 9 driver slid into Austin Cindric during a pit stop, subsequently getting sandwiched between Corey LaJoie and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. But the second time Elliott lost control, Denny Hamlin got involved too. As the race entered the last stage, Hamlin slipped his fear that his own car feels jittery: “Chris, I’m loose as f-ck. I just think it’s not worth it right now.” The No. 11 crew chief sighed: “You’re driving, not me.”

Eventually, Elliott’s unintended bump into Ross Chastain collected Denny Hamlin and others. Ultimately, Hamlin’s strategy of not risking too much to gain 20 points backfired. On the other hand, Joey Logano’s daring charge to the front ultimately handed him the first playoff win. This faulty strategy during the crucial playoffs is not the first, as Hamlin’s history shows.

Denny Hamlin has a penchant for messing up at year-end

Well, it is not exactly year-end yet, but we are past the regular season. Denny Hamlin has had a record for messing up his chances right when the iron seems hot; in 2019, the No. 11 JGR team was on fire – Hamlin started the season with an emotional Daytona 500 victory. Then, he raised his Cup win tally to six the same year, a phenomenal feat with then-rookie crew chief Chris Gabehart. But right at the cusp of winning his Cup Series championship, a slab of black tape slapped over his car’s grille which came in his way.

Gabehart had placed the tape in an aggressive aerodynamic call, but it caused overheating and forced the No. 11 Toyota to make an unscheduled pit stop. As Hamlin dropped from 3rd to 19th, he waxed despair post-race: “I really just wanted a chance to go after them after that pit stop. But with the overheating, I couldn’t. I was going to blow up. I had to make the right call and try and unlap ourselves. Try for a caution. Try for a miracle.” Even Gabehart lamented about their messed up call, noting, “We beat ourselves right here, just trying to get too much because that’s what you do in a championship race. We were just trying to pull off a really difficult play and didn’t get it done.”

So, the No. 11 team has exhibited a penchant for making wrong decisions during the playoffs. And now, Denny Hamlin and his crew need to buckle up for a more meticulous approach for the races ahead.