This weekend, two names will dominate the narrative: Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson. These drivers have a history of intense on-track battles, and Kansas Speedway is poised to be their latest battleground. But while Larson enters the race with a sense of confidence after his commanding performance at Bristol—leading 462 of 500 laps and topping the playoff standings—Hamlin’s situation is more precarious.

The Joe Gibbs Racing driver put up a miserable streak in the first two playoff races. 24th and 23rd place finishes came off of Atlanta and Watkins Glen, but Hamlin was able to turn that around in Bristol. Yet he cannot afford to feel comfortable for long, as insiders argue.

Denny Hamlin is in a tight spot

Well, the No. 11 JGR Toyota is bound to be a threat in Kansas. Denny Hamlin could not repeat his spring glory at Bristol due to Goodyear’s failed experiment and Larson’s sweep. Yet he managed to reverse his playoff point deficit; Hamlin collected stage points and finished P3.

Going into Kansas, Hamlin owns an unfathomable 2.8 finish at the Speedway—never finishing worse than fifth after the Next-Gen debut. But despite his solid chances, NASCAR insiders believe Hamlin would need more to keep his championship run.

On the September 26 episode of GoPRNLive, NASCAR experts Brad Gillie and Alexis Erickson arrived at a consensus: Denny Hamlin needs to step up. Gillie said, “We’re going into another round, let’s not forget that Denny Hamlin laid back at Atlanta. Talladega’s the middle race of the round of 12. Is he gonna do the same? The Roval is the final race. If he has a bad race or two – can Hamlin recover at the Roval, the same way he did at Bristol? I don’t know that I’m buying that ticket.”

Indeed, Denny Hamlin has had rough runs at drafting tracks in the Next Gen car. Despite owning five Daytona and Talladega wins, he has just three top-ten finishes at the 17 drafting track races after 2022.

So Erickson agreed with Gillie that Hamlin is in a tough spot. “Looking at the way that things have receded going into the round of 12, he’s only up 7. That is like barely a cushion if you consider that a cushion. These are some tracks where big things could happen and take you out in a hurry – certainly, wipe out 7 points in the blink of an eye. So yeah, I would be a tad bit worried if I was Denny Hamlin.”

Despite the experts’ warnings about Denny Hamlin, even his rival confessed to feeling “stressed”.

Hamlin’s archrival is a little jittery

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Our eyes will be on two stellar drivers in Kansas. While Denny Hamlin holds an astounding 2.8 average finish, Larson is not far behind. He has an average finish of 3.4, which came about due to a lone 8th-place result in the fall of 2022. But both of them also hold poor chances after Kansas. Larson’s results have been more miserable than Hamlin’s—he holds just one top-ten finish at Talladega in the last 17 races at drafting tracks. And while Larson is well-versed in road courses, the Charlotte Roval can be quite an unpredictable challenge.

So while stamping his good hopes for Kansas, Kyle Larson could not help but slip his worries about the future. “I mean, I like that Kansas is first rather than being the last in the round,” Larson said of the structure of the Round of 12 schedule.

“Kind of like how this round — ultra confident coming to Bristol, but it’s the final race of the round, where the next one, it’s like, okay, if I can go to Kansas and do a really good job and get good stage points, get a good finish, you have a little bit more comfort going to Talladega rather than Atlanta. You finish dead last and it’s like, you’re kind of stressed the whole time.”

Evidently, both Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson have reasons to be stressed out. But as the experts pointed out, Hamlin is at a disadvantage due to his lesser points. Let us wait and see if the veteran can keep scoring well.