There are no more margins for error for the best eight drivers competing in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. After the twists and turns of the Charlotte Roval and the high banks of Talladega, the Cup Series racing is heading back to the traditional ovals. The first race of the semi-final stages is scheduled at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and it’s fair to say Kyle Larson is the safest bet right now.

Having registered six wins already this season, the HMS marksman will be eyeing his seventh win at the mile-and-a-half race track. One that would ensure his automatic qualification in the championship 4 race in Phoenix. With two back-to-back wins and two runner-up finishes, it is just hard to imagine anyone putting up a fight against him. But 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick just might be able to stall the progress of the #5 team. He could slow down Larson’s speed run in clinching his second Cup Series championship.

Kyle Larson needs to be wary of Tyler Reddick at Vegas

Anyone who watched the spring Vegas race would know that Larson’s win was everything but easy. He had to constantly shift and slide across the racetrack to fend off a late race charge by Tyler Reddick. With 2 laps to go in the race, the #45 grew bigger and bigger in Larson’s rear-view mirror and almost caught up to the bumper of the #5 Chevy.

Larson made the best use of his stellar race car. However, it’s his prowess that helped him clinch the win. Had it not been for his timely block on Reddick with 2 to go, we would be having a different conversation. While Larson looks to be head and shoulders above his rivals heading into this weekend in Vegas, Reddick is probably the one driver he needs to keep an eye out for.

Greg Matheren, who is known for his extensive research and data analytics, shed light on Reddick’s Las Vegas run from the fall race. He had this formula of median speed where he compared all the drivers across the board, and the driver of the #45 Toyota Camry stood tall amongst his peers, even above Kyle Larson. “We look at driver’s speed over the median speed, so you know you take the entire field figure out what the average speed is and where the drivers are in relation to that. In the late quarter of the Vegas race, Tyler Reddick was almost 2 mph faster than the median speed; he was 1.837. Larson was fast; he was 1.693 over the median speed. But there’s still a pretty big gap there.” Matherne said this on the Out of the Groove show via YouTube.

Eric Esteep also chimed in with his thoughts, hoping for Reddick’s comeback. He’s been misfiring since clinching the regular season championship, but Vegas might help him turn a corner for good. “Tyler Reddick so smooth and so steady most of the years run into some inconsistency lately. Maybe this is the next step towards getting the train back on the tracks.”

It would be too naive to think only these two drivers are in contention to win at Vegas. This is why we have identified another driver who is silently scripting a championship run.

Watch out for Christopher Bell

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If there’s one driver in the NASCAR garage who can walk toe-to-toe with Larson, it has to be Bell from Joe Gibbs Racing camp. At a time when playoff drivers were scrapping for points, Bell has been quietly churning out consistent results. He’s finished inside the top 10 in every playoff race, except the Watkins Glen. Placed second in the playoff standings, Bell is the closest one who can mount pressure on high-flying Kyle Larson.

His last appearance at Vegas ended in tragedy after Goodyear tires bailed out on him early in the race. But last year he managed to find good speeds and ended both the Vegas races with a top 5 finish. In fact, he was right on the bumper of the #5 Chevy as Larson took the checkered flag in the last fall race. So keep an eye out on the #20 JGR team; they sure know to bring a race-winning set-up in Vegas.

Then again, you also have the likes of William Byron and Joey Logano, who have emerged victorious in the Next Gen era at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. So the field is pretty much stacked, and this is generally good news for the fans watching the races in the postseason.