With 8 laps to go in the race at Homestead, Denny Hamlin was in the commanding position to win and lock himself in the championship 4. But, once again, he fluffed his lines and allowed Ryan Blaney to get past him on the final 2 laps of the race. Moreover, he was then passed by Tyler Reddick, who would go on to win the race dramatically.

Hamlin had the opportunity to make amends for his past shortcomings, yet he just couldn’t see the race out. Even he knew he dropped the ball after being in the right place at the right time. “I let you down; I’m sorry.” These were his words on the radio after he finished 3rd. From the outside looking in, it feels like we’ve seen this script unfold a few times in the past with the #11 team. However, Chris Gabehart believes that there’s more to Hamlin in these playoffs, and he is confident about the Martinsville race.

Chris Gabehart explains what went down in the last 2 laps at Homestead

The mile-and-a-half venues in particular have treated fans to some thrilling races with the Next-Gen car. However, Homestead Miami is a different beast altogether; it was a wildcard race. With 33 lead changes, it was evident that the track was favorable for drivers to work on different groves and lanes.

High lane, hugging the top was the preferred choice for many, but only a handful of them were able to pull it off. Reddick perhaps was best at it, and it showed when he made a slingshot move on Blaney in the final corner. Moreover, the No. 11 Toyota Camry wasn’t strong on the short runs, and unlike other tracks, the offensive drivers had multiple options to overthrow the leaders. And that’s exactly what transpired on the final few laps.

“I don’t think Denny let the team down. Like there was a tough situation and he just guessed wrong in a couple of instances, just no different than Blaney says he did. Many times I’ve seen Denny bounce back from a scenario where he felt like he let the team down, where he felt like he did something wrong, he comes back pretty strong the next week.” Chris Gabehart said this to Claire B. Lang.

“I reflected on it. Any of them that were leading at that time all of a sudden had something really big to lose, and the other two had nothing but gain ahead of them. So it could be ultra-aggressive while the leader had to be a little bit conservative, and I really think that track coupled with them is why you saw two lead changes in the final lap and half. It was a tough one, for sure, but a great race. I mean a great race to be a part of,” he added.

If there’s one track type that Hamlin wishes he would want to race in a must-win scenario, it is short track. Martinsville is right up his alley, and while he’s slipped up at these exact moments in the past, he just might be able to script his redemption story.

Denny Hamlin will bank on his short-track prowess at Martinsville

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If we are to count his win at the Busch Light Clash, Hamlin has three short-track wins in 2024. However, out of all the short tracks, Martinsville has been a bit tricky for him. In the fall races, he is pretty good; with regular top 5 finishes, he certainly can stay above the cutline. In the Next-Gen era, Hamlin has led 461 laps at the short track. All he needs is to convert this time around.

But if there’s a new winner like Tyler Reddick, it will severely affect the points scenario. This is where Christopher Bell or Kyle Larson would find themselves in a better place. The 10 playoff points he lost with the L2 engine penalty are proving to be crucial in Denny Hamlin’s playoff survival. On the flip side, the new changes with the short-track package are something that plays right into Hamlin’s strength. That is a softer tire compound, which is expected to fall off more than the compound used during the spring race.

“It was a thing when they were testing it; the only difference is certainly you’re going to have all those cars out there and it’s going to rubber up and the tire will go away somewhat, but I really applaud Goodyear to go out there and have the nerve to put this tire on in the playoffs. Certainly excited to see how that turns out.” Hamlin said this about the new Goodyear tires.

If drivers are forced to conserve tires as they did at the spring Bristol race, Hamlin among the current playoff drivers will have a clear edge. He was the one who won the Bristol race, while the rest of the field panicked or either had flats. So, for those who are looking to celebrate Hamlin’s exit from the playoffs, they might just have to keep their plans on hold.