Will Denny Hamlin finally put his name on a Bill France Cup in 2024?

If his recent bad luck keeps up any longer, the answer to that question will probably be a firm no. Last weekend in Atlanta, Hamlin had to backmark the field courtesy of powertrain issues on his #11 Toyota Camry XSE. Hoping to take advantage of a late-race wreck, it was ironic when Hamlin involved himself in one of those big ones, that too, on the last lap.

This Sunday, on the eleven turns of Watkins Glen, Hamlin will roll off the grid in 22nd, one spot better than he finished in Atlanta. But his struggles weren’t too far away, as he misjudged Turn 1 and embarrassingly spun out during practice. This recent string of misfortunes feels anything but natural. And his thoughts at The Glen reveal exactly how discontent Hamlin is with these issues.

Can Denny Hamlin survive the playoff cut after Atlanta chaos?

For those unaware, the #11 team is currently only two points away from the Round of 12 cutline. The stablemates, the #54 team of Ty Gibbs, are also the unfortunate ones to sit right on the bubble heading to Watkins Glen. Sure, Hamlin’s performance in the playoff opener in Atlanta has put him in such a precarious position. But a misplaced engine that had resulted in an L2 penalty issued late in August took away 75 championship points from Hamlin. Instead of a higher position on the table, the #11 crew entered the playoffs as the sixth seed fighting for the championship.

And if that’s not all, 23XI Racing, Hamlin’s team co-owned by Michael Jordan, might not even exist next year after their ownership group refused NASCAR’s updated terms for the charter agreement, and they are still negotiating. All these things combined led Bob Pockrass, from FOX Sports, to ask Hamlin a telling question before the Watkins Glen weekend. Bob asked, “With the penalty, and the charter drama, and then Atlanta. I mean, I know, you sometimes thrive in chaos, but is there any part of you that feels like this is almost slipping away?” 

The question subtly highlighted concerns over the #11 driver’s streak of bad luck. Yet the man in question was firm in his resolve as he answered, “No, not really. I mean certainly I don’t love where I’m at. But that is a given.” Hamlin explains, “I still think if I just do the best I can tomorrow. Do the best I can at Bristol. It will work itself out. But if it doesn’t, it doesn’t. My number one goal is getting to a win tunnel. I got plenty of races to do that. So I’m going to try to win atleast two races in this playoffs.”

To conclude, Denny Hamlin laid out a heartbreaking conclusion, in the foreground of the relentless playoff format, as he said, “And hopefully they (the wins) count towards something when I do.”

Considering early exit or finishing behind the grid befalls the #11 team yet again at The Glen, Hamlin might fall below the 12-driver cutline. In that case, he will only have the Bristol Night Race left to salvage his championship advances. Regardless, Watkins Glen is one of those road courses where Hamlin runs relatively better than he does on the others presently gracing the NASCAR National Series schedule. But this year, Goodyear is bringing a new tire to amp up the excitement at the 2.45-mile non-oval circuit. And here’s what Hamlin had to say about the recent changes.

New tires, old woes, and the “X factor” ahead

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According to Denny Hamlin, “This will be the X factor, is that with this new tire, if it truly does wear out as quick as they’re talking about, you’re going to have one shot at it, because if you have to go out and re-run again. The lap time likely it’s just going to be so far off.”

Goodyear’s Director of Racing, Greg Stucker, had stated earlier that with these new tires, coded D-5232, he also gave a heads-up, saying, “We should see around three seconds of fall-off per lap over a run.”

Hence, Hamlin was probably correct in his assessment in the latest episode of Actions Detrimental, where he said, “The next two tracks, tires are going to be a big thing.” 

Sure, the second race of the Round of 16 and its circumstances bring forth their due unpredictability to tackle. But let’s not forget that Denny Hamlin holds a chance to win for the third consecutive time on Bristol’s concrete surface. During the March race, the #11 team battled unprecedented tire wear and conditions (that remain a mystery until today) to win its first race of the 2024 season. So one can never truly count out Denny Hamlin from doing the unthinkable.

Besides, he has won at Watkins Glen and Bristol in his gloried Cup Series career. And like he said, “So again, if I can just hold myself above water going to Bristol, I feel very confident we’re going to go out there and perform well.” 

Of course, he must be. Otherwise, his #11 team risks not moving past the first round of the playoffs for only the second time since he took the wheel.