Remember Jimmie Johnson? Yes, the one with seven championships, 83 wins, and an era of dominance that made him one of NASCAR’s greatest? Well, then you will also remember how the magic that once made him unbeatable started fading in later years. The wins dried up. The once-feared No. 48 became just another car in the pack. No matter how hard Johnson fought, no matter how many changes Hendrick Motorsports made, the inevitable was clear—his reign was over. Sound familiar?

Johnson did not manage a win for three full seasons after his final win in 2018, and Kyle Busch looks like he’s on a similar path. While Busch isn’t quite at Johnson’s level of decline, the parallels are striking. Once a two-time Cup champion feared by his rivals, Busch now finds himself in unfamiliar territory. Struggling! His move to Richard Childress Racing was meant to be a revival. However, after going winless for the first time in his career in 2024, it’s looking more like a slow, painful reality check.

Kyle Busch – From dominance to uncertainty

Kyle Busch’s NASCAR career is marked by remarkable achievements. With 63 Cup Series victories, he stands as the winningest active driver and ranks ninth on the all-time list. His tenure includes two Cup Series championships (2015 and 2019), a record-breaking 102 Xfinity Series wins, and 67 Truck Series wins in 176 races. In 2023, Busch transitioned to Richard Childress Racing (RCR), securing three wins at Fontana, Talladega, and Gateway. These victories marked his 11th season with at least three wins, a feat not achieved since 2019. But who knew these good times were about to end for the Rowdy?

2024 presented challenges. Kyle Busch finished 12th at the Daytona 500 and narrowly missed victory at Atlanta, finishing third in a photo finish. A collision with Ricky Stenhouse Jr. during the All-Star Race led to a post-race altercation. Despite strong finishes at Daytona and Darlington, Busch missed the playoffs and ended the season winless.

The 2025 season has seen mixed results for Kyle Busch. A late wreck at the Daytona 500 resulted in a 34th-place finish. He rebounded with a seventh-place finish at Atlanta and a fifth at Circuit of The Americas, where he led a race high 42 laps but faded late. Currently, Busch stands 17th in the Cup Series standings with 130 points, 114 points behind the leader, William Byron. Alarmingly, the winner of 63 Cup races is on a 63-race winless streak. However, NASCAR YouTuber Eric Estepp feels RCR has to take a fair share of the blame, too. 

Eric Estepp reflected on the Homestead-Miami race, which saw a glaring disparity between where Kyle Busch and Austin Dillon ran. “How on earth does Kyle Busch run 30th most of the day while Austin Dillon is sneaking around the top 15? Doesn’t make sense, something is horribly wrong… RCR is better right now than they were at this time one year ago… But they’re still not that close to being consistent top-5 contenders. I think [Richard Childress Racing] have a hard ceiling. This is a good team that hasn’t been consistently great since Dale Earnhardt.”

Estepp isn’t entirely wrong here. Ever since Dale Earnhardt tragically died at the 2001 Daytona 500 after a last-lap crash, RCR has never seen the championship. Despite coming close with Kevin Harvick and Ryan Newman in the 2000s, they never managed to have the edge over Hendrick Motorsports, who dominated the 2000s with Jimmie Johnson winning 5 championships from 2006 to 2010. However you slice it, Busch is struggling, and so is RCR. It’s just that RCR had been struggling even before Busch came to the scene. But what does Kyle Busch think about his future?

With his struggles mounting, talks about his future have intensified. Denny Hamlin even suggested that Busch transition to broadcasting, highlighting his strong presence behind the mic during his stint with The CW. But Busch remains focused on racing, saying, “But life is life. You just keep fighting it out and keep working with the team and everybody that we’ve got on this year at RCR and stuff and trying to make it better to get us back to Victory Lane.” Whether he can turn things around or faces an inevitable decline remains to be seen.

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What’s next for Kyle Busch in 2026?

Kyle Busch’s contract with Richard Childress Racing (RCR) is set to expire at the end of 2025, and his future remains uncertain. Busch has made his stance clear: If RCR isn’t winning, he isn’t staying. In an interview with FOX Sports’ Bob Pockrass in February 2025, Busch emphasized that results would dictate whether he would consider an extension. He bluntly stated, “I would say you gotta win, right?”

RCR is determined to keep him, but with just three wins in two seasons, the team has struggled to provide Busch with a consistently competitive car. Busch himself has admitted that it’s difficult for him to adjust to the Next-Gen car. Busch reflected on his Next-Gen struggles in a recent conversation with Kevin Harvick, saying, “Yeah, I’ve definitely had to take more of a backseat role on calling out adjustments… I’ve had some long conversations with Chase Elliott… And I’m like, ‘Man, have you found this thing to just be a beast?’ And he’s like, ‘Yeah, I’ve had to change my driving style, just like what you just said,’ and I’m like, ‘I don’t know how to do that. ‘” So, RCR is not entirely at fault here. However, if the situation doesn’t improve, Busch may start looking elsewhere to extend his storied career.

So, where can Kyle Busch go? A return to Hendrick Motorsports is unlikely, as their lineup of Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, William Byron, and Alex Bowman is set for the foreseeable future. Joe Gibbs Racing could be an option, but with Christopher Bell on fire and, despite Ty Gibbs’ decline, he still is the grandson of the owner, so that reunion seems improbable. 23XI Racing, co-owned by Denny Hamlin and Michael Jordan, presents a more realistic scenario, especially if they expand to a third car.

But, most likely, Busch will have a difficult time finding a new team, and if he renews his contract with RCR, the team will have the upper hand in the negotiations. That could impact his salary, contract length, and overall influence within the organization. So, does Busch stay and fight with RCR, or will he risk everything for one last shot at championship glory elsewhere? What do you think? Let us know in the comments!