Former Cup Series Champ Chase Elliott On the Path to End His Playoff Run

The 2023 Season, may well be a chapter the golden boy of NASCAR, Chase Elliott, wishes to blot out from his memoir, having grappled with a fractured tibia, which caused him to be benched for six races and bear the weight of a one-match suspension. Nevertheless, NASCAR enthusiasts and veterans alike are still holding out hope for him to punch his ticket to the playoffs with a victory in one of the upcoming road course races.

Elliott, who had reliably clinched a playoff spot ever since his full-time debut in 2016, now stands on shaky ground concerning playoff qualification. With the countdown to four races left, there have already been twelve winners eligible for the playoffs in the span of 22 races, leaving just four slots up for grabs this month. The burning question remains: can Elliott claim victory in one of the regular-season races and secure his spot among the top-16?

What do the numbers suggest about Chase Elliott’s playoff chances?

The luminary from Hendrick Motorsports hasn’t blazed a trail since the fag end of June at Nashville, sparking a midsummer malaise that has left some questioning his prospects of securing the requisite victory for playoff qualification. Despite managing to wedge himself in the top 10 five times in the past ten races, victory has remained an elusive phantom.

The last laps before the 2023 NASCAR playoffs entail races at Michigan International Speedway, the Indianapolis Road Course, Watkins Glen International, and Daytona International Speedway.

While it appears to be clear sailing for Chase Elliott given his impressive performance on road courses, NASCAR.com playoff predictions paint a less rosy picture, positing that Elliott will miss the playoff cutoff by a mere four spots.

Turning to the statistics, Elliott has flaunted a solid track record at Michigan, having made it into the top 10 eight times in the last ten races; once at Indianapolis from six races; four times from six races at Watkins Glen; and six times from ten races at Daytona International Speedway.

While the statistics appear encouraging, taking into account his recent form compared to last year’s performance at this juncture, with four wins already under his belt, the struggle to penetrate the top-16, leave alone the top-4, would require a lot more than just finishing under the top-10.

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What is the verdict of NASCAR stalwarts on Chase Elliott’s playoff prospects?

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Even as ardent NASCAR fans harbor hopes for their golden boy to break into the top-16, it appears the seasoned veterans and former officials hold a more skeptical viewpoint.

Take, for instance, Steve Letarte, the former crew chief of Hendrick Motorsports, perceives a ray of hope for Chase, albeit tempered with a pinch of doubt should his dominating performances continue to wane. In a discourse on the NASCAR on NBC podcast, he expressed, “My answer hasn’t changed- possible? yes, probable, no. I think Chase Elliott thinks it’s going to take a win, or at least winning performances. If he doesn’t go to victory lane but is in position to win the next four races, then the points will come.”

Even Dale Earnhardt Jr, known for his unwavering faith in Chase Elliott’s prospects, conceded on his podcast that “It is going to be interesting now that Chase is pretty much going to muscle in. It’s going to be interesting to watch him battle that up. I love it, and I think it’s fascinating, knowing these guys probably aren’t winning a championship this year; they’re not going to factor into the final four.”

NBC’s NASCAR analyst and veteran, Jeff Burton, offered a more ambivalent stance: “I would say, I don’t know! Two or three years ago, I would have said, Yeah, he’s going to win a few of them, but they haven’t had that winning pace on road courses.”

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Indeed, the cost of missing the first seven races appears to have cost him the entire season. Do you foresee Chase Elliott securing a win in the imminent four races or perhaps earning a playoff spot on points alone?