Three DNFs, no wins, and just one stage win. There is little doubt that Bubba Wallace’s season hasn’t gone to plan. The #23 driver has had his fair share of struggles and bad luck on the track. If there ever was a race that summed up his season, it was a thrilling finale at Daytona International Speedway. On track for a top 5 finish, Wallace ended up in sixth and had to watch Harrison Burton pull off a surprising win, to further see his playoff hopes drift away.

With several playoff spots still up for grabs, the race delivered plenty of drama. A chaotic event featuring multiple cautions saw several championship contenders, including Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, and Kyle Larson, eliminated. For Wallace, a win or a Top 5 finish was crucial to his playoff chances and even though there were other factors at play, he has taken the blame on himself for failing to deliver this season.

Unlucky Bubba Wallace has no room for error after Daytona

Despite a P6 finish at the Coke Zero Sugar 400, Bubba Wallace isn’t happy with himself. The driver knew only a strong finish would aid his faltering playoff push, but he was unable to deliver a desirable result at Daytona. There was a point in the race when Wallace occupied the P3 and looked capable of pulling off a much-needed win. He led 16 laps but then ran into problems that have defined his season.

The 6th place finish means he is 21 points below the playoff cutoff line, with only one race to go in the regular season. Wallace’s finish at Daytona would not have been that had any driver, who had already secured his playoff spot would have won the race. As it turned out, Harrison Burton overtook Kyle Busch in the final lap, to win his first career race and jumped from 34th in the standings to a playoff position.

Speaking with NBC Sports, Wallace cut a frustrated figure and deemed his performances “unacceptable” while highlighting how his teammate Tyler Riddick is doing. “Got one car fighting for a regular season championship and another on the bubble. It’s unacceptable. I’ll take all that weight on my shoulders. I should’ve won multiple times and I haven’t. We don’t even deserve to be here and we aren’t. Gotta go win, that’s it,” he said.

Wallace’s 23XI teammate Riddick is leading the standings for the regular season championship and has two wins to his name, including last week’s contest at Michigan. Comparatively, Wallace has struggled for consistency, and at Daytona, Wallace was unlucky as he found himself involved in a Big One at lap 151.

With nine laps to go, Front Row Motorsports driver Michael McDowell spun and went airborne, slamming into the hood of Joey Logano’s #22. This led to 14 cars being involved in the wreck, including Wallace’s. The #23 driver had suffered a similar fate last week in Michigan where Wallace finished 26, despite a promising start.

Kyle Larson appeared to be in line for a win during the FireKeepers Casino 400. After pitting and restarting and the 9th spot, Larson went for a bold move entering Turn 3 and it resulted in a multi-car wreck involving Christopher Bell, Joey Logano, and Bubba Wallace.

Wallace has suffered three DNFs this season, having gone on a streak of 30 consecutive races without suffering this fate. His first one came at Talladega on April 21 and Wallace was typically unhappy with himself. He was involved in a wreck in the final stage after John Hunter Nemecheck into Wallace’s #23 to disrupt what looked like a near-perfect Toyota strategy and caused four cars to wreck.

After the race, Wallace said, “We were all pushing really hard to keep our line going. We had a plan and just didn’t execute it as well as we should. Hate it for our Leidos team. Look forward to running these places and then you just get trapped in somebody else’s mess, but I hate it.”

The #23 driver’s misfortune carried over to the next race in Dover on April 28. With 72 laps remaining, Wallace saw Zane Smith and Tyler Reddick make contact, as he left Turn 2. He ran straight down the track, collecting several drivers for his second DNF of the season.

His last DNF came at USA TODAY 301 when Noah Gragson slid into him with 40 laps remaining and collected Austin Dillon as well. Three strong starts were turned into three DNFs for Wallace and now he is running out of time.

Despite being on P3 at one point in the race at Daytona, Bubba failed to capitalize, yes some wrecks stood in his way, but in the end, what matters is which side of the cutoff line you stand. RCR and Wallace are staring at playoff failure as it stands.

Yet one win is all they need. And now one chance is all they have left. There is, however, some good news for Bubba, as the other racers he was competing with in the Bubble except Ty Gibbs had a disappointing finish as well. Although Burton has lessened the available playoff spots, let’s look at whether the #23  can still make it to the playoffs.

Odds for Bubba Wallace’s playoff chances

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Bubba has a tight competition going on! It is being led by Martin Truex Jr., who is in the 14th place in the playoff picture. Despite a P24 finish at Daytona, Truex Jr. continues to lead it with a comfortable cushion of +58 points. Behind him in the 13th position is Ty Gibbs, who got a P5 and is +39 points above the playoff cutoff line. Taking the final spot in the playoff so far is Chris Buescher, who failed to repeat his 2023 Daytona performance and ended up in P10. After the Dayton race, he has a +21 points lead over Bubba Wallace in the 17th place.

A 21-point lead will be difficult for the #23 to cover. However, Bubba has shown consistency even a P6 is not bad, so maybe they can still manage it. However, for Bubba to have a chance to play in the playoffs, Buescher has to get a bad finish in Darlington. Bad would be a DNF or a finish in the low 20s and at the same time time, Bubba will have to manage a top 3 finish.

A win would be great! All this, however, seems difficult since Buescher will also be eyeing a top-spot finish and has the caliber to do that. There is also a possibility of a new winner like what happened in Daytona. If that happens, then the battle for the 16th position will most likely be over between Buescher and Bubba, as both won’t qualify if MTJ and Ty Gibbs get top finishes.

Bubba’s chances for playoffs seem to be slim. In 2023, he got a P7 at Darlington and Buescher got a P3. Only time will tell the fate of Bubba. What do you think will happen? Let us know in the comments below.