Denny Hamlin, in his two-decade-long career, has made it to every playoff since 2014. And in that time he has on four occasions made it to the championship 4 (2014, 2019, 2020, 2021). However, he hasn’t since the next-gen era! In 2022, he missed it thanks to Ross Chastain’s hail melon move; the No. 11 finished P5. And then, in 2023 again, he missed out after facing a mechanical failure in the Homestead Miami race, again finishing the season in 5th place.

In his NASCAR career, the veteran has, on several occasions, come close to winning the championship but has never bagged one. While 2024 was hopefully going to be ‘the’ year, his playoff campaign hasn’t been off to a good start. After nearing elimination, Hamlin had to lean on his good friend Bristol to pull him out. And now the next round looks equally daunting for the 54-time Cup Series winner.

Can Denny Hamlin’s progress into the round of 8?

Due to the unique track setups this season, Denny Hamlin‘s playoff performance has struggled. NASCAR introduced a second superspeedway at Atlanta, where Hamlin finished 25th after starting last. His recent results on superspeedways have been poor, with 38th and 19th place finishes at Daytona this year.

Additionally, the addition of Watkins Glen as a playoff road course hasn’t improved his fortunes either; he finished 38th at Sonoma and 23rd at Watkins Glen. These back-to-back under-20 finishes placed him in the elimination zone before Bristol. Fortunately, short tracks have historically suited Hamlin, as evidenced by his 4th-place finish at Bristol. However, he is currently only +7 points above the cutoff line in 6th position.

To make matters worse, the next group of tracks is more or less similar to the round one. Starting with Kansas Speedway, then Talladega Superspeedway, and lastly Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course. After barely managing the first round, what are his chances in this round? NASCAR Analyst Eric Estepp made a prediction when he said, “Oh Denny, I don’t love this round for Denny Hamlin. Talladega could be trouble he has an average finish of 28.2 at drafting tracks this year. The ROVAL could cause problems he has an average finish of 26 at road courses this season.

However, the Speedways are where the #11 thrives. Further in the analysis, Estepp said, The one thing Denny Hamlin has going for him actually it’s two things first he’s seven points to the good but the second thing is fantastic at Kansas Speedway. Five straight top-five finishes 168 laps Led in that span.”

Clearly, according to Estepp, Hamlin needs a good finish in Kansas to keep his chances in the round of 12 high. “As long as he exits Kansas with a 20-25 Point cushion or better I think he advances.” 

To Hamlin’s good fortune, Kansas has always been a strong track for him.

Denny Hamlin’s chances in Kansas?

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If we look at Hamlin’s record, he has managed a top-five finish in all of his last six races. His most current one was a P5, followed by 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 5th in the 2021 October race. Since 2021, his average finish on the track has been 4.4. And what shows his prowess on this track is his average start, which was 15. This means the number 11 has dominated the track with the next-gen car. Even NASCAR Journalist Jeff Gluck pointed it out recently.

Gluck said, “Denny Hamlin should have a great chance to re-establish his championship hopes at Kansas (where he led the most laps in the spring race before finishing fifth). Hamlin, the active Kansas wins leader with four victories, has an insane 2.8 average finish in the five Next Gen car races at Kansas.”

Standing in Hamlin’s way is the HMS star, the table topper, Kyle Larson, who is also the last winner on the track. In his last six races, Larson has managed five top-5 finishes. Making his average finish 5.3, which is only slightly worse than that of Hamlin’s. However, Larson is coming from a winning high in Bristol. The #5 would be looking to continue his dominance and stay on top in the playoffs. Also in the conversation with Gluck was Jordan Bianchi, who thinks Larson has a strong chance of a back-to-back win at Kansas.

Bianchi said, “Right now, how can you not pick Larson? Sure, we’ve seen him over-drive a few times this season, leading to crashes in races where he had the fastest car, but Bristol demonstrated that he has no equal when he is on his game. And that this track is among his best only further solidifies the belief that Sunday’s race is his to lose. The expectation is that he completes the Kansas sweep.”

What do you think are Denny Hamlin’s chances in chances and the round of 12?