Denny Hamlin’s weekend at Circuit of the Americas (COTA) was anything but smooth. Early in the race, an incident with Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Ty Gibbs disrupted his momentum. Later, contact with Austin Dillon further derailed his performance. However, while his on-track misfortunes drew attention, it was his post-race comments on his Actions Detrimental podcast that sparked broader discussion. Hamlin, known for his candid assessments, shifted focus from the race itself to a more significant issue: the uncertain future of COTA in NASCAR. Unlike many critiques of road courses, his concerns were not about the racing product but rather the financial viability of the event.

COTA’s place on the NASCAR calendar may not be as secure as it seems, and Denny Hamlin isn’t afraid to say why. We all know that Hamlin and SMI CEO, Marcus Smith got into a public feud over the pavement on Sonoma Raceway last April. So, it was indeed interesting to listen to what the JGR star had to say about Smith’s plans for the Austin-based track.

The Financial Reality Behind NASCAR’s Scheduling Decisions

NASCAR is in a tricky spot as more road course races are being added to the NASCAR calendar. There are five road course races on the 2025 schedule and not to forget there’s also the Chicago Street Race. With rumors about NASCAR open to the idea of more international events, one of the existing races on the schedule will have to make way, just like Richmond did last year. This is where COTA plays a huge role as it has delivered fans something different than they are already used to.

But going by Denny Hamlin’s assessment, COTA’s future with NASCAR is based on finances with Marcus Smith holding the keys. “This is Marcus Smith’s date, he took this date from one of his other tracks and put it here. It depends on what the new lease price is. I mean there is a number where Marcus will be happy with profiting a certain amount of number for this race weekend.” He said this on Action’s Detrimental podcast. 

It is important to note that SMI doesn’t own the Circuit of the Americas. Rather Marcus Smith and SMI act as a promoter to help NASCAR set up the race and they’ve done this successfully since 2021. Hamlin went in deep, explaining the dynamics that NASCAR has with Marcus Smith and Co., and there’s a possibility that COTA might retain its spot on the NASCAR calendar.

“I believe what NASCAR pays SMI or Marcus Smith for this race weekend, he can put this race on wherever he wants. He can do it on one of his own tracks or he can go get a track and pay the lease fee. If he runs it at one of his own race tracks, there’s cost to that. There’s a nut that he has to cover. Now what is the cost of that versus what is the cost that COTA charges him? And for the last few years it appears, it’s been a good deal for him… They would still keep it here if it makes financial sense.” Hamlin added.

COTA, a venue originally designed for Formula 1, entered the NASCAR schedule in 2021 as part of the sport’s expansion into road course racing. It has since delivered exciting moments, including aggressive restarts, strategic pit calls, and dramatic last-lap battles. However, excitement alone does not determine a track’s future. As Hamlin pointed out, if the financial terms of the lease agreement between NASCAR and COTA become unfavorable, the sanctioning body may look elsewhere.

Hamlin’s remarks ignited discussions among fans and industry analysts, with opinions divided on COTA’s place in NASCAR. Many fans argue that the Austin-based circuit has injected fresh energy into the schedule, offering a unique challenge distinct from traditional oval racing. The track’s undulating layout, technical corners, and signature elevation changes provide a distinct spectacle, especially in comparison to other road courses such as Watkins Glen or Sonoma.

If COTA’s lease agreement becomes cost-prohibitive, NASCAR may opt for an alternative road course, particularly if a more financially attractive option emerges.

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Potential Alternatives If COTA Exits

Should COTA be removed from the NASCAR schedule, potential replacements would likely include established road courses or new market expansions. One option could be a return to Road America, which had been a well-received addition before its departure. Another possibility is a second race at Watkins Glen or Sonoma, two venues that have long been staples of NASCAR’s road course calendar.

Additionally, NASCAR’s willingness to experiment with street courses demonstrated by the introduction of the Chicago Street Race opens the door for more urban venues. A street race in a major metropolitan area could offer commercial benefits that outweigh COTA’s financial viability concerns. Not to forget, that NASCAR is looking to expand beyond the domestic borders as well. If the Mexico race weekend is a big hit, we might see them make some ambitious moves moving forward.

Ultimately, the decision will hinge on what makes the most business sense. While COTA’s unique layout has provided thrilling races, NASCAR has repeatedly shown that no track is indispensable if the financials do not align. Hamlin’s assessment of COTA’s future is a stark reminder that NASCAR operates as a business first and foremost. 

Although NASCAR races at Texas Motor Speedway, the Austin market is indeed valuable for them. There’s a reason why F1 revisits the track every year. So is NASCAR ready to take that risk, by moving the event elsewhere?