Is momentum a variable when it comes to NASCAR racing in the Next-Gen era? With just three races left in the season, it is hard to point a finger at one team that is absolutely on a roll. You can make a case for Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell, but again, they are yet to secure their spot in the championship 4 race. Meanwhile, Joey Logano, who was out of contention after the Roval race, has managed to leapfrog the competition, entering his sixth championship race.

Certainly, the #22 team had it rough in the playoffs, and had it not been for Alex Bowman’s DQ, he wouldn’t be in the picture right now. Denny Hamlin and the #11 camp, like the other seven teams, are now under pressure to perform at Homestead and Martinsville. But, as far as momentum is concerned, Hamlin’s crew chief, Chris Gabehart, isn’t sold on the idea.

Playoffs have been nothing but a wild ride according to Gabehart

The JGR star had a streak of subpar outings in the first few playoff races. However, with consecutive top 10 finishes, it looks like the #11 team is finally on the right track. Apart from the P14 result at Roval, Hamlin’s last five races have been a huge improvement. If it wasn’t for the pit-stop errors at Vegas, he could’ve been in a better position.

With the stretch of good results and another traditional mile-and-a-half lined up next, is Hamlin a favorite to win at Homestead? This was the question that Gabehart was asked in a recent interview, and his reply was, “Yeah, I’m aware of it; media needs storylines to talk about. Momentum’s a convenient one, but you don’t have to look any further this past Sunday than Joey Logano and the 22 team when you talk about momentum.”

He didn’t hold back from taking jabs at NASCAR for setting the playoffs to be a wild ride for the teams. “I mean, just eight days prior, they were out. You know they’ve had up-and-down playoffs as well, and let’s not forget we’re talking about four joker tracks in the first six races of the playoffs on top of it. So momentum is not a thing, especially not with this format. Especially not this year and rounds of races, the way they are were laid out.”

Although stats back Hamlin and his steady progress in the playoffs, the reality is far from it. The #11 Toyota Camry wasn’t among the contenders at Vegas last weekend. Had it not been for the strategy call to stay out and try to play a fuel mileage strategy, Hamlin wouldn’t be inside the top 10. So there’s clearly work to be done for the #11 team for the next two races. The good news for them is that Homestead and Martinsville have historically good tracks for them.

Can Denny Hamlin overcome the disappointment of the past two years?

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The Next Gen era has been brutal to Hamlin and his dream of clinching his very first Cup Series championship. In 2022, at Martinsville, he fell victim to the hail-melon move by Ross Chastain, and in 2023, the #11 Toyota Camry gave up on him at Homestead. Well, going by the trend or curse, his race car already suffered a mechanical failure at Sonoma in 2024, so he should be good for the vital three races.

Hamlin has three career wins at Miami Homestead, but all of them have come before the Gen 7 car. Perhaps this might be the year for him to recreate his winning moment at the mile-and-a-half track. Moreover, his track record on the short-ovals is something he can always bank on. So, if need be, Martinsville is the track Hamlin would like to like if he’s in a must-win scenario. And this seems to be the mentality inside the #11 camp.

“What is a thing is great teams with great experience levels that understand the pressure of the moments and know how to capitalize when the wind blows their direction, so to speak, that is important. So the momentum exists at Homestead, the momentum exists at Martinsville, and then we’ll re-rack and figure out where it will be for Phoenix,” Gabehart added.

Truth be told, it’s too close to call who among the seven drivers will fill up the next three spots. As Denny Hamlin mentioned, this is probably the best eight ever assembled, which will only make his job tougher in the coming weeks.