It’s Bristol, baby. The last time we visited the o.533-mile short track, we had a blast. The intense tire management race caught the entire NASCAR Cup Series garage and fans by surprise. Rubber fell off so fast that NASCAR had to release extra sets of tires to all the teams to pull through the 500 laps. The unpredictable race fell right in Denny Hamlin’s arena as his late model experience pushed him to victory.

However, the spring race ensued in daylight, which will be absent in the upcoming event. The Round of 16 elimination race will feature a lot of unknowns, with Goodyear’s continued experiment and NASCAR’s night schedule. So Hamlin may have to pull out an extra trump card.

Denny Hamlin may be in a tough spot

Bristol Motor Speedway has a 46-year history of night events. It conducted its first race in the dark in 1978, being one of the first Cup tracks to illuminate NASCAR’s premier series with bright stadium lights. As this nocturnal practice will continue in the upcoming weekend, the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 team may need to strengthen its strategy. Denny Hamlin presently sits outside the playoff picture with a 6-point deficit after back-to-back misery-riddled runs.

What is more, is that Goodyear’s tire experiment is the most unpredictable phenomenon this season. Bristol’s event came as an utter surprise – Goodyear tried to replicate it at the All-Star Race and Richmond but with little success. So in a recent episode of PRN, NASCAR journalist Kim Coon outlined the tensions: “Every crew chief I talked to last week said that they lost sleep heading into Watkins Glen because there were so many unknowns in Bristol. They were like, we have to have a near-perfect race at Watkins Glen going into Bristol because we have so many unanswered questions.” 

She emphasized the nocturnal factor that Denny Hamlin needs to seriously consider. “You think about the tire and what it did in the spring – well, that was a day race. This is a night race…(You won’t have) an identical race.” NASCAR veteran crew chief Jeff Hammond also chimed in: “They are two different animals and you got to race it completely different.” NASCAR plans to inject the track with resin again, and the effects would take time to set in, just like in the spring race. So Coon stressed how practice cannot predict the final race. “In spring, there were no tire issues in practice. They only showed up in the race. Again, nobody knows what’s gonna happen.” 

Despite the challenges, Denny Hamlin and some of the veterans may prevail.

A sheer advantage over his peers

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Granted, the challenges facing Denny Hamlin for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race are numerous. Besides the tire factor and the nightly schedule, vengeful non-playoff drivers like Chris Buescher could pose a problem. However, the JGR driver has a glittering resume at BMS, having won the past two races. Exactly a year ago, he proclaimed, “I beat your favorite driver … all of them.” His JGR peers have a good history as well – Martin Truex Jr finished second and Ty Gibbs won both stages and led 137 laps at Bristol in March. Christopher Bell finished in the top ten in all three Next Gen races.

Denny Hamlin posted an average running position of 30.8 and 32.2 in the past two races. This marked a personal low for any lead-lap finish in his career. Yet the No. 11 team is confident as it heads into Bristol, as Chris Gabehart called the racetrack “our house.” Gabehart said the playoff deficit can be managed: “If you run in the top two or three all day, absolutely.” Hamlin also showed confidence: “I feel like we can go there and win. We are going to an oval, back to a normal track. We can control our own destiny there.”

So despite the numerous challenges facing the No. 11 Toyota team, Denny Hamlin has a solid chance at Bristol. We cannot wait for another thriller of a race at The Last Great Colosseum!