The 2024  playoffs for Joe Gibbs Racing have been a roller coaster ride. First, all four of their drivers qualified, but in the very first round, Martin Truex Jr. and Ty Gibbs were eliminated. Even Denny Hamlin had a near miss with elimination. But thanks to his short-track prowess, the Bristol race saved his chances. In round two, Hamlin remained mostly on the good side of the cutline. However, after a P14 in ROVAL and a P8 in Las Vegas, the #11 is back in the elimination zone.

Amid this turmoil, one driver has given JGR impeccable consistency. Often overshadowed in the veteran lineup of the team, Christopher Bell has to be the most underrated driver, not just in JGR but in NASCAR. Bell in the entire playoffs hasn’t once been under the cutoff line; rather, he’s not even been close to it. Through the 7 playoff races so far, Bell has always remained among the top 4 in the standings. Even entering the Homestead Miami race, he is the top-seeded driver. Many are wondering if Denny Hamlin’s championship 4 chance is in jeopardy.

Christopher Bell set to outshine Denny Hamlin

Bell is +42 points above the cutoff line in the first position in the current playoff picture, whereas Hamlin is -27 points in the 5th position. And this has been the story for pretty much the entire 2024 season; the #20 driver has performed better than Hamlin. In the 34 races so far, both have 3 wins each. However, Bell has an average finish of 12.7 as opposed to Hamlin’s 14.5. Even in the regular season, Bell finished 4th, while Hamlin had to settle for 7th place.

Despite this, C. Bell is not considered one of the strongest championship contenders of the season. His consistency has been better than all the drivers on the grid this season. In fact, the Oklahoma native is the only driver to have made the championship 4 every time in the next-gen era so far. And it is a strong possibility that he will even make it this time.

Recently NASCAR analyst Eric Estepp said in his video, “The defending Homestead winner obviously losing last weekend at Las Vegas had to sting, but he’s put together quietly the most consistent playoffs of anyone. Has a 5.7 average finish the last seven weeks.” It is crucial to note that Bell’s only in his 5th full-time NASCAR season, competing against former Cup Champions. A fair picture of who’d progress to the final 4 will become clearer in the next race at Homestead Miami.

Christopher Bell would be entering the race as the most recent race winner, whereas Hamlin faced a DNF in 2023 after he crashed out. This has made Hamlin’s chances slim against Bell. Estepp in the discussion was joined by another NASCAR analyst, Ryan Stevens, who echoed the same emotions as Estepp.

He said, “So if we look at tracks you know more specific to the track type of Homestead you know maybe just a little more tire wear, higher banked like, intermediate type track he’s actually second in fast lap percentage this year sandwich between Reddick and Larson. So he’s up there with like the two guys that everyone looks at as you know maybe the favorites to kind of rip the top here and be fast. Bell’s doing it too.”

Amongst the active drivers, C. Bell has the best average finish with 10.0 at Homestead, and Hamlin is not far behind in the 4th position with a 10.9 average finish. But it is important to note that Bell only has one-fourth cup experience of the #11 driver. Still, if the next-gen era was considered, Bell easily surpasses Hamlin in Homestead stats.

“I did an 18 race sample of qualifying in 2023 and 24 again tracks most similar to this he’s (Christopher Bell) won the poll seven times so I would expect you know him to be starting up front there. So yeah I expect another strong run from Bell,” Stevens added. Bell recently dwelled on his strategy for the next two races.

Christopher Bell’s chances to progress to Phoenix

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For Bell, after good finishes at the Homestead Miami and Martinville, entering the final race would be a cakewalk. The #20 ahead of the next race opened up on his plans.

He said, “Yeah, I think that’s what we’re planning on (gaining max points). You know, that’s why you’re in the Round of 8, trying to transfer to the Championship 4. You’re never really safe. The three of us William (Byron), Kyle (Larson) and myself have kind of, the way that the cards fell, we’re kind of essentially point racing each other, and the guys below that are far enough below, they’re basically out of the points and essentially racing for wins.”

The point of difference between the bubble drivers and the ones in the top rankings is huge:

1. Joey Logano: progressed to the final 4 after the Las Vegas win
2. Christopher Bell: +42
3. Kyle Larson: +35
4. William Byron: +27
5.  Denny Hamlin: -27
6. Tyler Reddick: -30
7. Ryan Blaney: -47
8. Chase Elliott: -53

Despite the massive points difference, Christopher Bell still remains cautious heading into the next races. “There’s a good chance William, Kyle or myself could win this weekend and it could change. But plus 42 (points) sounds great until you realize every time someone wins, that cutline shrinks more, more and more, or that gap to the cutline. You’re never safe and it’s going to be a battle. It’s going to be a battle all the way until the checkered flag at Martinsville and, you know, everybody knows how important those wins are,” Bell added.

NASCAR is a game of uncertainties, and anything can happen. Suppose defending champion Ryan Blaney and 2020 Cup champion Chase Elliott win the next two races; pointing your way in could get tricky for Bell. So the #20 faction would be eying a win, especially after two back-to-back runner-ups finished in the last races (ROVAL, Las Vegas). Homestead is crucial for Bell since Martinsville hasn’t been as kind to the JGR driver. He finished 35th in the spring race.

• What do you think are Christopher Bell’s chances to progress to the next round and eventually win a championship?
• Would Bell ruin Denny Hamlin’s chance to bag a championship?