Every new season in NASCAR brings fresh opportunities, rising stars, and plenty of high expectations. But when a rookie steps into the Cup Series, the road ahead is anything but easy. Adjusting to the competition, learning the intricacies of Next-Gen cars, and proving themselves on the track is a challenge that only a few can conquer.

Denny Hamlin isn’t one to overhype a driver without reason, but he’s got high hopes for Riley Herbst as he joins 23XI Racing for the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season. After years of investment in Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick, Hamlin is bringing in the young Xfinity talent, banking on his potential to grow into a competitive force. He shares his perspective on what lies ahead for Herbst and how realistic expectations can shape his season.

Denny Hamlin sets realistic expectations from Riley Herbst

Herbst, making the jump from the Xfinity Series, will have his former crew chief alongside him, a move Hamlin believes will ease the transition. “Riley Herbst coming in, we’re bringing in his Xfinity crew chief. They got great chemistry together,” Hamlin explained. Despite a mechanical failure at the Clash that prevented Herbst from making the main event, Hamlin is confident in his abilities. “I really feel confident that Riley will outperform expectations this year. I think he’s very hungry, I think he’s very focused, and very underrated in the talent side of things.”

After investing heavily in Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick over the years, Hamlin appears to be taking a measured approach with Herbst. While Wallace and Reddick are expected to make the playoffs and advance deep into the postseason, Hamlin knows that setting the same expectations for Herbst would be unrealistic. Instead, he views this season as one of growth and development for the young driver. “I think he’s going to be a person that will contend inside the top 20 on most weeks.” Denny Hamlin explained this on the Actions Detrimental podcast.

Now, Herbst had a solid 2024 season in the Xfinity Series with Stewart Haas Racing. He won his first race of the year at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and returned to victory lane during the championship race in Phoenix. Apart from these wins, he had four top 5 finishes, but Cup Series racing is going to be a different ball game altogether for the 25-year-old. This is why his boss at 23XI Racing wants him to get his feet wet before he can compete for wins or playoff spots.

For now, Hamlin isn’t setting the bar at the playoffs for Herbst, but he believes in a steady progression. While Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick are expected to make the postseason and advance, Herbst’s primary objective is to gain experience and improve race by race. “My expectations of Tyler, of Bubba, they’ve changed year after year because I expect them to keep getting better. The minute you see a plateau, then it’s, ‘Alright, how far can they really take this, take us?’”

Well we all know Wallace has had a tough time in delivering consistent performances driving the No. 23 Toyota Camry. He did make the playoffs in 2023 but it was by virtue of points and some good fortune. Well, in 2024 his luck ran out and he was winless throughout the 36 races in a season. Meanwhile, his teammate, Tyler Reddick won the regular season championship, had a clutch performance at Miami Homestead, and took 23XI Racing to their first-ever championship race. So, you see Herbst’s inclusion might give rise to healthy competition, to take the team to new heights in 2025.

With Bubba Wallace’s inconsistency over the past seasons raising questions, could Riley Herbst be the surprise performer that helps 23XI Racing reach new heights? Hamlin seems to think so, but only time will tell if this gamble pays off.

Hamlin supports NASCAR’s move to discipline drivers

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Denny Hamlin has never been one to hold back, and his latest comments on Chase Elliott’s infamous 2023 retaliation at Charlotte Motor Speedway make that clear. With NASCAR’s recent rule changes, Hamlin believes drivers will now think twice before seeking payback on the track.

During the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte, tensions escalated on Lap 186 when Hamlin squeezed Elliott into the wall while racing side by side. In response, Elliott turned left, sending Hamlin’s No. 11 Toyota crashing headfirst into the barrier. Both drivers were eliminated from the race, with Elliott’s No. 9 Chevrolet also deemed undrivable. NASCAR quickly ruled Elliott’s move as intentional, suspending him for just one race—the Enjoy Illinois 300.

Hamlin, speaking on his podcast Actions Detrimental, highlighted how lenient the punishment was under the previous system. “Because I think the argument was that, hey, it’s just a vacation at that point, you know?” he explained. “Chase Elliott, trust me, wanted to be at the next race. It was the middle of summer, but he got a week’s vacation, right? He didn’t get to race. And he really didn’t lose anything other than how many points he would have accumulated the next week.”

However, NASCAR’s updated waiver policy changes everything. Under the new rules, missing a race for any reason other than a medical emergency results in forfeiting all current and future playoff points. Hamlin believes this is a game-changer, as retaliatory moves like Elliott’s could now cost a driver their entire season.

In the past, drivers like Bubba Wallace and Matt Kenseth have faced one-race suspensions for aggressive actions, but the penalties never extended beyond that. Now, with playoff points at stake, Hamlin suggests that drivers will have to be far more strategic. “If you choose to race in another—let’s just sum it up—if you choose to race in another series or whatever or miss for a reason not listed, then you will lose your—you will forfeit your playoff points that you’ve earned up until that point,” he explained.

Hamlin’s stance underscores the increasing importance of discipline in NASCAR’s evolving landscape. While Elliott’s actions in the 2023 season may have been brushed off as a moment of frustration, the veteran driver believes the new system will keep everyone in check.