Denny Hamlin has made the playoffs every year since NASCAR introduced the elimination format in 2014, claiming 54 wins across 682 starts. But despite his near-universal success on different tracks, he’s yet to capture the coveted Cup Series Championship. Hamlin has reached the Championship 4 on four occasions, but each time has finished 3rd or lower. With rivals like Joey Logano and Kyle Busch winning twice in the same span, could 2024 finally be Hamlin’s year?

2024 was looking promising for the Joe Gibbs Racing driver, but the playoffs haven’t unfolded as smoothly as he would have liked. In the very first round, Hamlin neared elimination after finishing outside the top 20 in the first two races. However, a P4 at Bristol rescued him. And even since then, it’s been a bumpy ride, and yet again he finds himself below the cutline entering Homestead, Miami. Recently, Hamlin opened up on his playoff performance so far.

Denny Hamlin disappointed at his playoff performance

NASCAR threw a curveball at the playoffs this time with Atlanta, which races as a Superspeedways now, and Watkins Glen as a second road course in the playoff lineup. And it is no secret that drafting tracks and road courses is wildly unpredictable. However, when the series raced on its usual tracks, Hamlin got more comfortable. Since round 2 of the payoffs, the JGR driver has mostly stayed in the top 10, only at the ROVAL he finished 14th. Still, since Bristol, he’s not gotten a top-5 finish.

Owning to this, the #11 is currently -27 points below the cut line in the 5th position. He opened up on the ups and downs of the 2024 playoffs and the reasons for the struggles. In a media conference ahead of the Homestead Miami race, Denny Hamlin said, “I certainly think we’re not leading laps. That’s definitely an indicator of speed. We haven’t done that over the last several weeks, certainly. You know, I don’t know. Again, I think some of it is schedule. We’ve had three of these typical ovals we’ve had in the series – Bristol is one of them we’ve ran top-three all day. Kansas, every time we got right at the lead, we had a bad pit stop. And then, (Las) Vegas, obviously, was just wheels came off on that one. It’s just… And that’s been seven weeks’ worth.”

Hamlin too blamed the wild nature of the 2024 NASCAR track lineup in the playoffs. The #11 has often struggled on Superspeedways and road courses, and there were two each this time. His finishing average on the Superspeedways has been 17.1, and he’s failed to win a single Superspeedway race in the next-gen era.

The last time the #11 car took the chequered flag at a Superspeedway was in the 2020 Talladega playoff race. On this note, Hamlin said, “You have the road courses. I’m not going to lead a bunch of laps there. Not going to show a ton of speed there. And then the superspeedways. So, it just feels like forever.”

The same has been true with road courses. Other than a P2 at the 2023 Watkins Glen race, Hamlin has stayed out of the top 10 in his last 15 road course races. The last time he won a road course race was almost a decade ago in 2016, when he took the victory lane at ‘The Glen.’ However, it is still not game over for the veteran; -27 points are not a big deficit, and hopefully he can cover up in the upcoming Homestead Miami race or at Martinsville.

How does Denny Hamlin fare in the next two races?

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In the 2023 Homestead Miami race, Hamlin finished 30th after he crashed in the final stage of the race. Other than that, Hamlin has had good runs there. He’s won the race thrice on the 19 occasions the #11 car has been on the track and has evidently shown consistency, bagging five top-5s and twelve top-10 finishes.

However, just a top 10 might not be enough this time around. A win or at least a top-3 finish would be desirable to the Denny Hamlin faction. “It’s certainly not the best time to not be on our A-game, all around, myself included. The good news is, we still have a chance, even this late in the game,” Hamlin said as he remained confident.

Denny Hamlin’s path to the Championship 4 isn’t easy, but he’s betting on his strengths.

• Homestead will test him as drivers push close to the wall, trying to avoid even the slightest scrape.
• But if things go south there, Hamlin still has Martinsville in his back pocket—a track where he’s racked up five wins and landed in the top five three times in his last four races.

Could his Martinsville magic pull off a must-win scenario and clinch him a spot in the final four?

When asked about this, Denny Hamlin said, “I certainly can (win in a must-win situation). The ‘will’ of you is the real question. If I knew how the race would play out, I’d do a better job driving. It’s just that these are variables, and you have 35 other guys that have different plans than letting you win. You know, it’s very difficult to win these races. We’ve seen that. Certainly, feel like it’s a race track if I had to (win to advance), I’m certainly capable. The ‘will’ I don’t know.”

Overall, Hamlin’s chances remain strong to make it to the final race. What do you think? Can Denny Hamlin finally win a Cup Series championship this year?