Fred Lorenzen, Cale Yarborough, Darrell Waltrip, and Kurt Busch. If things go well, the next name on that exclusive list could belong to one Denny Hamlin. What list, you ask? The list of drivers who have been able to win a trifecta of races back-to-back on the high-banks of Bristol Motor Speedway.

However, there remains one major twist in this interesting narrative for Hamlin. Unlike himself, none of those names with a Bristol hat trick had to contend with the additional pressure of a Round of 12 cutline. Neither did their championship hopes hinge entirely on making it a three-for-three at the “World’s Fastest Half-Mile”.

If you couldn’t tell already, it is almost compulsory for Denny Hamlin to pull off something that no one has since 2003. If not, the #11 team faces the threat of a first-round exit in the Playoffs. Now, that’s something that hasn’t happened even once in the elimination era.

Denny Hamlin’s last stand at the “Last Great Colosseum”

Since the elimination era began, only one other driver has had the chance to win three consecutive races at Bristol. That man is Kyle Busch, and he’s lifted the Gladiator sword at the “Last Great Colosseum” more times (8) than any other active Cup Series drivers. The Rowdy one’s opportunity of a Bristol three-peat came in 2018. He had clinched consecutive wins, starting with the 2017 Bristol Night Race, and the Food City 500 a few months later. But fate played a cruel joke, as it was his elder brother Kurt, who won in August, and snapped Kyle’s dreams of a Bristol triple.

Interestingly, Kurt Busch was also the last person to win three consecutive races at Bristol. He took an entire year to achieve that feat. But achieve it he did, as the #97 Roush Racing Ford found itself in Bristol’s victory lane for the third time at the 2003 Spring Race. Over two decades later, Denny Hamlin has primed himself to become the fifth driver in NASCAR history to carry out something similar. However, the #11 team has put themselves in quite a precarious position through the past few weeks with a string of below-average performances.

Some could even call it bad luck. But ever since NASCAR hit the #11 team with a hefty L2 penalty for an engine inspection violation last month, a lot of things have gone terribly wrong for Hamlin. For starters, the punishment sent him back 75 championship points, and ten playoff points, thanks to Toyota accidentally misplacing his Bristol Spring Race-winning engine. Sadly, that victory also got scratched off playoff eligibilty. Then, the following weekend, Hamlin registered his fourth DNF of the season at the Coke Zero Sugar 400. He made it to the playoffs as the sixth seed, after a hard-fought top-10 at the Southern 500 regular-season finale.

But his results and performance have pushed him even further down the pecking order. Heading to the Round of 12 cutoff race this Sunday, Denny Hamlin sits only six points below the cutline. Joining him in the tension-filled bubble are Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr., and Harrison Burton, each vying for their ‘win-and-in’ spot as the chase intensifies. And let’s not mention the spoilers beyond the bubble, like Chris Buescher this past weekend, eagerly waiting to salvage their seasons with a last-ditch win, before the year’s done with.

Hamlin’s struggles at the superspeedway of Atlanta and the road course at Watkins Glen are largely to blame for putting him in this shaky situation to begin with. Following a confusing 24th-place finish in Atlanta’s playoff opener, the struggles continued with a crash-laden 23rd-place result at Watkins Glen. To make matters worse, his average running positions — 30.8 at Atlanta and 32.2 at the Glen — were the lowest ever for a lead-lap finish in his entire career. If one looks clearly they’d even notice Hamlin riding somewhat of a ‘winless streak’ since that dominating Dover triumph back in April (17 races, to be exact).

Things have turned so bad that the #11 driver has also considered putting his family dog up for adoption for the length of his championship run, citing bad luck in its presence. Talk about being superstitions in NASCAR. Regardless, all these things combined make one wonder if Hamlin is in the correct mind frame to push for that Bill France cup that has evaded him so fatefully.

But his narrative could change drastically as the Cup Series gets ready to race for the 127th time in the foreground of the Northern Tennessee mountains next Sunday.

All eyes will be on the #11 Camry XSE this Sunday

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As Kevin Harvick said on his podcast earlier in the week, “The thing about Denny has always seemed that he’s handled [pressure well]. He’s got a lot of things that he can handle well off the racetrack… But he’s never gotten to the point of being able to handle it well and win a championship.” Like The Closer, many believed this would be the year that Hamlin finally learns how to ‘handle it’. Alas. after a strong start to the season, the reality has yielded the same championship-less curse he’s been familiarizing himself with, over the past two decades.

It was ironic, to say the least, when Tyler Reddick, a driver who wheels the #45 belonging to Hamlin’s co-owned 23XI Racing, won the regular-season championship at Darlington. Seeing Hamlin celebrate his employee’s grand trophy, while he has none of his own to claim, must’ve acted as a due wake-up call for all Denny Hamlin fans worldwide, if not the man himself.

Although, it does look like he fancies his underhanded chances on a track that’s often acted as a second home to the 43-year-old veteran. For those unaware, Hamlin will attempt to make his 5th trip to Bristol’s Victory Lane this Sunday. Hence, he expressed his confidence to TimesNews in a recent address, saying, “I feel like our chances are as good as anyone.” In his own words, “Ultimately, we’re one of the very few cars that can win any given week. So no matter what points position we might find ourselves in, and we will be in a precarious points position at some point of the playoffs…”

“We always feel like we can go to the next track and win. That’s something that only a few cars can do.” – asserted Hamlin emphatically. And he’s not wrong. Just like his perennial rival, Kyle Larson, or his multi-race-winner teammate Christopher Bell in 2024, Denny Hamlin has driven a superior car on most weekends, accompanied by an outstanding team, and crew chief in Chris Gabehart. But there’s very little Chris Gabehart could do when Lady Luck has different plans for the #11 team’s positive advances. So, can they break free from those chains and shut the doubters up once again? The Bass Pro Shops Night Race awaits with all the answers on Sunday.