Denny Hamlin’s Drop in Performance Could Bite the Championship-Chasing Veteran in the Long Run

With three Cup Series wins already in the bag and arguably the quickest race car on the field, Denny Hamlin might be en route to a championship race in Phoenix. That has been the feeling so far this season for the #11 car and their entire team. While race-winning speeds and victories are important, Hamlin seems to have missed out on a crucial factor that could come back to bite him. And the reason? A lack of playoff points.

The early part of the season was pretty much a smooth ride for the No. 11 driver, as he collected multiple race wins and therefore didn’t have to worry about the playoff points. However, now that the regular season is nearing its end, his string of bad results isn’t going to help him bag those crucial playoff points.

A possible teammate rivalry for the playoff

Qualifying for the playoffs is the easy bit, but the real challenge for the driver starts in the playoff round. So, usually, the drivers who have been consistent throughout the regular season get rewarded with playoff points. A race win equals 5 points, and a stage win amounts to one bonus point. Now remember, after the end of the regular season, all drivers advancing to the playoffs have their points tally reset to 2000.

The only differentiator here is the playoff points each driver has earned throughout the course of the season. As of now, Denny Hamlin, with 3 race wins and 4 stage wins, has a total of 19 playoff points. But his teammate Christopher Bell, with his 3 wins and 7 stage wins, stands at 22. Kyle Larson from Hendrick Motorsports is sitting at the top with 23 points, as he has 8 stage wins.

That’s not it; the drivers are further credited with an extra 15 points if they take home the crown of regular season champion. Going by the recent trend of performances, it looks like either of the HMS drivers or Bell could bag that title. What these playoff points do is essentially create a buffer or a cushion, and they are valid until the third round of the playoffs. Hamlin, of all drivers, knows how a freak accident can derail a championship run. Therefore, he should be back, at least contesting for stage wins.

But what exactly has gone wrong for Denny Hamlin and the #11 JGR team, as they had been on a dominating run?

How Mechanical failure and racing conditions have hampered Denny Hamlin’s recent results?

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After crashing out of the Talladega race, Denny Hamlin and his team bounced back in style, winning at Monster Mile, and then followed it up with four straight top-5 finishes. At this point in time, he was also leading the points standings. However, the streak of bad results started off at Sonoma, where the #11 Toyota Camry’s engine blew up on the very first lap of the race. So, they lost out on scoring a single playoff point.

Then they headed to Iowa, and for the first time, it felt like Hamlin’s car was off-pace. He struggled to keep up with the cars and barely saw out the stage 1 run without going a lap down. Although they bounced back and, by the end of the race, climbed up to P24, this just won’t cut it for a driver who is contending for a championship. As if two unfortunate race weeks weren’t enough, the rain gods decided to play spoilsport for Hamlin at New Hampshire.

Normally, NASCAR would cut short the race after a long break of more than 2 hours of racing. And knowing that NASCAR could end up resorting to the same decision as they did at the Coca-Cola 600, Denny Hamlin secured himself a P2 finish, just behind Tyler Reddick. But, in a rather bold move, NASCAR decided to complete the race with wet weather tires, and he just couldn’t cope with the trickery and challenges of racing in damp conditions.

Although the 11 car has been dominant so far in 2024, it’s fair to say that both driver and team need to regain their focus. And, most of all, aim for stage wins, or better, get back to winning ways, as he certainly would need all the playoff points he can collect in the upcoming eight races.