2023 might be the year Denny Hamlin finally scrubs away that unwanted “champion-less” tag, setting his sights on Phoenix as the battleground for redemption. As the season hurtles toward its electrifying conclusion, with just three races left and the impending cut-off, the fervor is palpable. Hamlin, with three victories and an impressive tally of 13 top-5 finishes, has cemented his status as a formidable contender.

Yet, amidst the dust and fumes, the Hendrick duo of Kyle Larson and William Byron cast long shadows, outpacing Denny Hamlin in the race wins and top-5 stats. Despite trailing in the numbers game, Hamlin exudes unwavering confidence, a confidence that roared to life under Bristol’s night skies in his most recent victory. Nonetheless, a recent statement from Hamlin hinted at chinks in his armor, raising questions about whether his confidence can weather the storm.

Denny Hamlin’s championship aspirations teeter on the unpredictable whims

Despite facing a disappointing DNF at the ROVAL, Denny Hamlin entered the Round of 8 opener at Las Vegas last weekend with an 11-point cushion above the playoff cutline, even besting his rival Kyle Larson by 8 points. All signs pointed to a strong performance. However, the Nevada Speedway had a different script in mind, with Larson’s No. 5 car celebrating in victory lane, holding off JGR’s Christopher Bell. In stark contrast, Hamlin finished in 10th place after running stronger positions for much of the day, landing at P7 and P4 in the first two stages.

A late adjustment on Hamlin’s No. 11 Toyota made it uncomfortably tight during the final stretch, ultimately relegating him to 10th place. This left Denny Hamlin with 38 points as he departed Las Vegas, tied with his teammate Martin Truex Jr. and only 2 points above the playoff cutline, with the No. 20 of Bell poised to overtake him and secure a Championship 4 berth.

In a recent interview with NASCAR.com’s Zach Sturniolo, Hamlin candidly discussed the harsh reality of the playoff format and the somber acknowledgment that his championship hopes might slip away at any moment. When asked if his team was poised to claim the championship, Denny Hamlin responded, “I think we certainly are, as long as we keep our fate in our own hands. I feel as though it’s a good opportunity for us, probably one of the best opportunities that we’ve had.”

However, the Joe Gibbs Racing ace was quick to acknowledge the capriciousness of the sport, stating, “But the competition doesn’t care about that. Like if we blow a tire with 5 to go, we go from dominating the race to losing it on our own. They don’t care about what you are trying to accomplish. They are just trying to race their own race, so it’s a weird sport in that sense. While things you feel are in your favor, each week you have been one of the top contenders. The format doesn’t care, and they can knock you out.”

Homestead hopes: regaining composure and nailing the qualifying game

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As Hamlin gears up for the forthcoming race in Homestead Miami, it appears he has regained his composure and is honing in on a strategic approach. Recognizing that the “name of the game” to secure a ticket to Phoenix, he underscored the importance of a strong qualifying performance, likely reflecting on his disappointing 15th place qualification at Vegas.

In a post-race interview after the Nevada event, Denny Hamlin revealed his mindset when asked about the upcoming race in Homestead. He stated, “We’re looking forward to this weekend. Obviously, we would have liked to have finished last week a little better to be in a better spot in the points, but we feel good about Homestead. It’s a track we’ve had some success at and feel like we can run up front and score points.”

He emphasized the current focus, “That’s the name of the game right now is just qualify up front, score points in the stages, and finish as good as we can. It’d be awesome to win the race and lock ourselves in, but if we can’t do that, we need to maximize our day.”

With Miami on the horizon and the last elimination cutoff approaching, the question lingers: Who will emerge as the championship 4 contenders?