“I’m quite tired of having to do it on points,” confessed Bubba Wallace, as he struggles to capture his maiden win this season. With only five races remaining in the regular season, the struggle of relying on points to make the cut—a familiar scenario from last year—is repeating itself, leaving Wallace’s championship hopes hanging by a thread. Eager to break this trend, he is desperately seeking a win. All of this raises a pressing question: What’s going wrong with the #23 team?

According to team owner Denny Hamlin, unlike the rest of the Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing Toyotas, the #23 car has been struggling with its speed. While Wallace did capitalize on Ross Chastain’s mishap last weekend, cutting the point difference to 27, Hamlin still believes he will need to step up their efforts.

One win is all it takes to disrupt the points scenario

A sense of déjà vu is haunting Bubba Wallace’s playoff hopes this season. Relying on points to make the playoffs is never a safe bet. But unfortunately, without race-winning speeds, this is the only option left for him to work with.

Wallace has secured top-10 finishes in two of his last three races, but his struggles with pace remain perplexing. Notably, his teammate Tyler Reddick, driving an identical setup, has shown better speed. Puzzled enough, Denny Hamlin expressed his views on his podcast ‘Actions Detrimental’, saying, “While it was a good points day for the 23, they’re still lacking pace; I don’t know where that pace is. It’s head-scratching a little bit that they just don’t have the pace that seems like the other JGR or 23XI Toyota’s have, but they are finishing to their best of ability on race day.”

Notably, Tyler Reddick is leading the Toyota charge with one win, eight Top-5s and 14 Top-10s. He’s currently third in the standings. As for the other Toyota drivers, Denny Hamlin, sitting just below the #45, with three wins, nine Top-10s and eight Top-5s, with his latest Top-5 coming last weekend.

Hence, the JGR driver noted that while the #23 team has managed to stay within the touching distance of their rivals, they need to intensify their efforts to truly contend. The stakes are high, as a single win by a driver still seeking a playoff spot could drastically disrupt the landscape and jeopardize the chances of the others vying for a coveted playoff position.

“So it’s pretty much Bubba, Chastain, Buescher, or the three that are. Buescher having a little bit more of a gap there. But still, all it takes is one win at Daytona, and that cut line moves, and next thing you know, Gibbs is back in the question of making the playoffs, and you’re like wow. We’ve seen it. It’s all been possible,” Hamlin added.

For the unversed, Chris Buescher is at 12th and Ross Chastain in 13th place. Bubba, on the other hand, is 15th.

His team will have to play strategically if they want to see themselves on an upward trajectory. The good thing is the #23 racer isn’t losing hope yet. While he admitted how frustrating a dry spell can be, he also showed optimism. “We’re all still hungry. We all know what we’re capable of doing. [Reddick] is showing speed week in and week out, so we just have to have a big…moment of figuring out what we need to do and get us back on track,” he had said ahead of the Chicago race.

But, cut to last weekend, the 23XI Racing driver spent a majority of the first two stages at Pocono outside the Top-20. Later, while he managed to slip into the Top-20 in the closing laps of the second stage, he didn’t score any stage points. However, Ross Chastain’s unfortunate collision with the outside wall in Turn 3 on Lap 52, and Ty Gibbs’ engine failure, ultimately helped him secure a P10 finish.

Yet, Wallace, much like his boss, admitted shortcomings. Elaborating on the Chastain and Gibbs scenario, he said, “We didn’t capitalize on points. But the 1 (Chastain) had a bad day. The 54 (Gibbs) had a bad day. It was a nice rebound. You know, usually we’re the opposite. We start really good and end up fading and giving up a lot of track position. Here, we were able to call a good strategy and hang on. We just didn’t have the car.”

So what exactly can the team do to pull off a big result? According to Denny Hamlin, Wallace’s best chances lie at either the Indianapolis Motor Speedway or Daytona International Speedway, where a win would guarantee his advancement to the knockout stages.

Strategies and tactics could really help struggling drivers

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Last weekend’s race at Pocono was a tactical chess game. One that Ryan Blaney and the No. 12 team aced with their pit-stop calls. Of course, Hamlin would know the difference, as it was the only thing that kept him at bay while he was closing in on Blaney in the final few laps. The Penske star was the first driver to hit the pit road for fuel and fresh tires in stage 2, whereas the #11, despite staying out, conceded the lead as the field cycled out in the final stage.

Therefore, with similar racing conditions at Indianapolis and Daytona, the JGR star believes these are the two places where Wallace will have to bring his A-game. “I guess at Indy this weekend there could be. Strategy could be a thing this weekend where you could put the 20th-place car out front, and he would be very, very hard to pass. I think that it’s possible, it’s possible that someone else could win, and if that’s the case, then Bubba will definitely be in the must-win,” Hamlin explained.

Looking at the Wallace’s past performances at Daytona, he’s had a fairly good run, finishing in the Top-10 11 times in 17 starts. Four of those have been P2 finishes. Indianapolis’ oval track is making a return to NASCAR after racing on the road course for three years. Notably, Wallace finished third and ninth on his last two trips to the oval. Hopefully, he’ll be able to replicate the performance or even exceed that.

But given how close the margins are between the drivers, it is just hard to pick an outright favorite who will be able to secure their playoff this Sunday at the Brickyard. Do you think it’s going to be Bubba Wallace? Let us know your predictions in the comments below!