William Byron shocked the NASCAR world with a thrilling, last-lap victory at the 66th Daytona 500, kicking off Hendrick Motorsports’ historic 40th anniversary in remarkable fashion. And with that tumultuous weekend in the rearview mirror, the NASCAR world is already anticipating the next race – the Ambetter Health 400 at the reconfigured Atlanta Motor Speedway; A track where the #24 boasts two Atlanta wins and an impressive 171 laps led, the most out of any driver.

Traditionally, NASCAR would transition from Daytona to standard racing, but a pivotal shift occurred in 2022 with Atlanta Motor Speedway’s reconfiguration. The superspeedway drafting aero package necessitated a revamp of the Atlanta track. The changes, including increased corner banking and reduced track width, birthed a pack-racing style reminiscent of the legendary Daytona as well as Talladega. Now Atlanta stands as NASCAR’s newest “restrictor-plate” track, setting the stage for an adrenaline-pumping showdown on February 25th.

2-Time Atlanta Winner William Byron: A Betting Favorite on Drafting Tracks

Fresh off his first-ever 500 victory, Byron and HMS head to Atlanta, establishing themselves as a strong contender for the NASCAR Cup Series title in 2024. Byron, who clinched six victories last season and made it to the championship 4, has mastered the pack-racing style of the reconfigured Atlanta track. With a notable win in the summer race at Atlanta last year and a win before that in 2022, Byron, according to CBS Sports, is a formidable force, boasting 12-1 odds in the 2024 Ambetter Health 400.

Nevertheless, NASCAR insider Eric Estepp and Greg Matherne of Wintherace, a trusted data and analytics firm for NASCAR-related betting odds, delved into the betting implications for the upcoming Atlanta race on Estepp’s YouTube show, “Out of the Groove.” With William Byron’s Daytona 500 win fresh in everyone’s minds, the conversation naturally centered around his Atlanta prospects and the wider ‘favorites’ landscape.

Estepp acknowledged Byron’s strong suit, stating, “William Byron won the Daytona 500, he’s also a two-time Atlanta Superspeedway winner in this next-gen car. I imagine he’s got to be one of the favorites this weekend, but do you think it’s worth taking that kind of risk?”

Matherne confirmed Byron’s position among the favorites but cautioned against blind trust, stating, “Yeah, so he is definitely listed down at the favorites. It’s another superspeedway… its a little bit racier, there’s a little more control for the drivers but I mean it’s still pack drafting you know, you’re still gonna get some big wrecks… and as you mentioned, he’s won twice at the reconfigured Atlanta. He just won the 500. He’s won at Daytona previously. He’s really good at this track type and he is down at the favorites.”

The Hendrick Motorsports’ Legacy at Atlanta

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However, Matherne expressed reservations about Byron’s value at the current odds, stating, “Most of the favorites are listen around a +1200. They’re around 12-1. I don’t know if he’s value at that price. I think that’s a little short for my liking.” He went on to elaborate on the other alternative odds, “I did see him at one book out at 13 and that was at MGM and I have not betted at 13 because I am actually going to tell you, I’ve got a little bit better way to get some Hendrick exposure…”

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The race-bet expert then unveiled his own preferred strategy for the Ambetter Health 400, “…the way I actually prefer to get exposure to these guys if you have it is, Betway has Hendrick Motorsports to win the race at +350. And I think that’s actually a great value, three and a half to one to get four drivers who are all very competent here. Two of them have won races here. They’ve won 75% of the races at this track and I think that’s a great bet. That is only available on Betway.”

While Byron remains one of the favorites, Estepp and Matherne’s conversation highlights the complexities of Atlanta betting. Nevertheless, Hendrick Motorsports has etched its mark on Atlanta Motor Speedway time and time again, with a storied history of victories dating back to 1989.

HMS icons like Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson have claimed multiple wins, while newer talents like Chase Elliott and William Byron have added to the team’s triumphs at the 1.52-mile drafting oval. With a victory at Atlanta, Byron could make history by becoming the sixth driver in Cup Series history to open a season with back-to-back wins.

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