One of the most important races in NASCAR’s history took place at Darlington Raceway in May 2020, when the sport resumed racing following a two-month pandemic break. Teams were put to the ultimate test of their flexibility without any preparation or qualification. Rain caused a delay in the start, adding uncertainty to an already historic event, but Kevin Harvick prevailed by taking advantage of the conditions that were always shifting. Now, almost five years later, the Goodyear 400 could once again be determined by Mother Nature on another wild Darlington weekend.

At Darlington Raceway, Throwback Weekend evokes a certain type of excitement that combines grit, nostalgia, and the unrelenting task of mastering one of NASCAR’s most punishing courses. However, another element is edging into the air this year. On Saturday, the heat in South Carolina will test drivers’ limits, but on Sunday, the uncertainty has everyone gazing beyond the starting grid and toward the sky.

Darlington has always been erratic, not only because of its rough surface but also because of the invisible factors that throw even the greatest plans off balance. Teams may be caught off guard or rewarded if they anticipate a sudden change in the weather. Conditions could be crucial this weekend. Heat, humidity, and the possibility of something more are all hinted at in the forecast. The Goodyear 400 may evolve into a test of flexibility if the weather cooperates, evoking the wild races that have characterized Darlington’s history.

The outlook for the weekend tells the story of two very different days. The Xfinity Series race and qualifying on Saturday will take place in oppressively hot conditions, with highs of 88°F and humidity levels hovering around 61%. Even with a 10-15 mph breeze from the south-southwest, tires will still be punished by Darlington’s infamously rough surface. Sessions on Saturday are crucial just because of that. Because Sunday could be chaotic due to the race itself as well as the impending rain threat, teams need track time to perfect their setups.

The temperature will marginally dip to 86°F by the time Sunday’s 3:00 p.m. ET green flag is set to drop, but the 35% chance of rain is what counts. This might drastically alter the race, as it did in 2020, so it’s not just a small annoyance. Drivers waited impatiently for the rain to stop that year, not knowing if the race would start on schedule or be postponed indefinitely. When the skies finally cleared, Harvick demonstrated his agility by expertly controlling his tires and using the changing conditions of the track to win.

Grip levels might change significantly from one lap to the next if the predicted rain removes rubber accumulation, making restarts high-stakes situations when drivers must quickly find fresh racing grooves. Experience and flexibility will be crucial in that situation, as they were for Harvick in 2020. Drivers who found it difficult to adapt were rapidly vanishing back then, but those who embraced the constantly shifting conditions pushed ahead. Rain may cause Saturday’s qualifying to be disrupted, requiring NASCAR to use its performance metric formula to determine the starting position. This may potentially alter the race dynamics before the green flag is raised.

The weekend reflects the erratic weather of 2020, with Saturday seeing extremely high temperatures and Sunday perhaps seeing rain. Throwback Weekend celebrates the past, but as strategy and flexibility become as important as speed, teams may need to take some lessons from it.

Big things brewing for the Darlington weekend

While the weather paints one picture for the Darlington weekend, fans have something big waiting in store for them. After all, Darlington hosts the Throwback Weekend every year, and one highlight for 2024 will be Denny Hamlin sporting an iconic livery that takes fans back to Carl Edwards’ glory days in the sport. Although he didn’t win a title, he came agonizingly close in 2008, and that red-and-black livery will be on Hamlin’s #11 car.

But that’s not all. With the livery comes another Edwards themed surprise. Carl Edwards will serve as the honorary starter for the race! When fans first heard the announcement, they couldn’t believe it. The timing coincided with April Fools. Could it be another prank?

Well, it wasn’t. Edwards later clarified he would participate, and if that wasn’t enough, Darlington Raceway President Josh Harris backed it up. He said, “Carl has established himself as one of the most likeable personalities in our sport’s rich history. We’re honored to have him join us for the Goodyear 400 and help celebrate NASCAR’s past and present to close out The Official Throwback Weekend of NASCAR.”