There is always a debate in NASCAR with the ‘win it and you are in’ part of the elimination format. This might seem unfair to drivers who remain constant through the season yet don’t reap the benefits of it.

• It happened in the regular season when Harrison Burton unexpectedly won Daytona and booked a playoff berth. Before this, he was below the 30th position in points.
• Or even Chase Briscoe was way behind in points compared to a consistent Chris Buescher, but because of the format, a win in Darlington promoted him ahead of Buescher.

However, there is also an upside to this; the format makes things unpredictable and interesting. Making no driver safe and no driver out of contention. However, thanks to the rule, we have Kyle Larson, who was P2 in regular season rankings, in the elimination. And while initially there were discussions of him being a top championship contender, it’s uncertain if the #5 would even make it to Phoenix. Recently, Dale Earnhardt Jr. raised caution for Rick Hendrick’s driver.

Kyle Larson’s championship hopes are in jeopardy

The HMS driver is so far the winningest in the 2024 season; in the 35 races so far, Larson has managed to get 7 wins, his second highest in a season ever. The #5 has also shown consistency with 14 top 5s and 17 top 10s. Yet he’s fallen victim to the elimination format as he finds himself below the cutline with -7 points going into Martinsville. This is the case when Larson was +35 points entering the Homestead race, but a P13 finish put him under. And this is the first time in the 2024 playoffs that he’s come under the cutline. Look at the current playoff picture:

This must surely be disappointing for Kyle Larson since, ahead of him, Joey Logano is already in the championship 4. And the Penske driver hasn’t had a great season if stats are compared. Logano has only managed six top fives so far in the season, and he was almost eliminated until Alex Bowman was disqualified. However, by winning at Las Vegas, he’s in the championship battle, while Kyle Larson is struggling to make it to the next round. Even Tyler Reddick wasn’t having the best playoffs. In five playoff races, he finished 20th or worse, but a win at Homestead has put him in the top 4. With only two spots left, it’s going to be a tight battle in Martinsville, and there is a possibility the 2021 Cup Champion might get eliminated. Recently, Dale Earnhardt Jr. spoke on this in his podcast episode of Dale Jr. Download.

He said, “Kyle Larson had an up and down day, and now with this win, the playoff picture, he’s minus seven. Yeah, it’s pretty crazy, man. And look, I like Larson, and I think that he’s a…we were saying, I guess last week we thought he was the championship favorite. What is this with this system, man? …And I mean, if you know if Larsson doesn’t make the final four, that’ll be quite a disappointment for that team, but it’s realistic.”

If that happens to be the case, NASCAR would invite a lot of criticism, according to Junior. “And the appreciation and criticism won’t be forgiving around this either. When you got a when your format is aggressive, you’re going to hear from people who don’t approve of it or approve of it regardless. But there are some admirers of the system as well, and expectedly it involves Denny Hamlin, who finds himself in a possible must-win situation entering the next race. Hamlin recently said, “It just shows the system and that you all got a chance until that last cutoff race is over with, and so it doesn’t matter how far back you are in points; you just gotta find a way to win.” 

However, things might not be over for Larson just yet. As we know, Larson’s recent dominance at short tracks. And Martinsville happens to be the shortest track in NASCAR. But Denny Hamlin is a short-track master too and is just as desperate for a win.

KyleLarson’s chances at Martinsville

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Martinsville might turn out to be a tough battle between Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson. Denny Hamlin has been the most consistent driver when it comes to short tracks. Since 2021, Hamlin’s average finish on short tracks has been 8.6, with 14 top 5s and 16 top 10s. Larson is not far behind, with a 9.1 average finish with 4 wins, 12 top 5s, and 15 top 10s. However, if Martinsville stats were compared, Denny Hamlin wins by a mile.

Hamlin happens to be the winningest driver on the track among the active drivers. The #11 has an average finish of 10.2, bagging five wins here in his career. Larson, in comparison, has only won once and has an average finish of 16.7. And this has made the HMS driver uneasy entering the race.

Larson previously said, “I just haven’t had like dominating speed there, and I think my car is still much better than I am there…I think we’ll have a good car, a great car, and we’ll have a good shot, but it’s just a tough place. And it’s not a place that’s ever really been comfortable for me, even with the success that we’ve had. It’s a tough, really tough track for me.”

And adding to his misfortune, all the drivers he’s going up against have had better finishes than him. “Where guys like Denny [Hamlin], [Ryan] Blaney lately, Chase [Elliott], and William [Byron], you know they’ve had dominating speed. And those are all of the guys that I’m going up against,” Larson added. If the battle comes to points, Christopher Bell is currently leading with +27 points. However, that cushion might not be enough, as he happens to have the second-worst average finish (16.2) at Martinsville among the playoff drivers. William Byron, with +7 points, has been good here with an average finish of 13.8. However, these two are not the only worrying factors.

While Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott might look out of contention if it comes down to points, they have had much better finishes than Larson. In fact, Blaney has the best average finish (8.8) among the lot, also besting Denny Hamlin. However, what would give Larson some relief is his P2 finish at the track in spring, which could be converted to a win this time. His Bristol dominance is also proof enough of his short-track capability.

Overall, it’s going to be a tough battle at Martinsville! Which two drivers do you think will progress?