It’s wild, isn’t it? Here we are, still talking about Martinsville 2024. In the grand scheme of things, this race might go down as one of the most pivotal moments in NASCAR history, at least when it comes to how the races are stewarded. Not because of the on-track action (though that was dramatic enough), but because of the rule changes it sparked. The fallout from that chaotic finish has forced NASCAR to rethink how it governs the sport, particularly when it comes to race manipulation. And Dale Earnhardt Jr.? Well, he’s got some thoughts. Mixed ones, at that.

The Martinsville race last year was a powder keg of controversy, with accusations flying about drivers holding back to help certain cars—especially with Championship 4 implications on the line. Now, NASCAR has rolled out new rules to try and clamp down on that kind of behavior. However, Dale Jr isn’t entirely convinced they’ll work. In fact, he’s warning that these changes might just push teams to get sneakier, not cleaner.

The New Rules: NASCAR’s Attempt to Plug the Gaps

So, what exactly are these new rules? In a nutshell, NASCAR has tightened up its language around race manipulation. The updated rulebook now states: “Any member who attempts to improperly influence the outcome of the event or encourages, persuades, or induces others to do so shall be subject to penalties as outlined in Section 10 violations and disciplinary action.” It goes on to list prohibited actions, including “intentional planning” and “conduct that prioritizes objectives other than achieving the best possible competitive result for their team.”

Dale Jr broke it down on his podcast, The Dale Jr Download, and his take was, well, mixed. “This sounds like more of the same in terms of the 100% rule,” he said. “Everything gets smarter, and people find new ways to take advantage of the system in place, especially with the playoffs and points. NASCAR has to keep adjusting rules.”

The catalyst for these changes was, of course, Martinsville last year. Remember the chaos? William Byron was on the bubble for the Championship 4, and two other Chevy drivers, Austin Dillon and Ross Chastain, seemed suspiciously unable to pass him in the closing laps. Radio chatter from spotters later suggested there might have been a “plan” to keep Byron in contention. NASCAR wasn’t thrilled, and neither were the fans.

But Dale Jr isn’t convinced these new rules will be a game-changer. “This is one of those rules that’s gray as hell,” he said. “There’s a lot of variation in how drivers might do this type of thing. Some of it is to help their teammate or affect who can advance in the playoffs. That’s when it gets really problematic.”

He also pointed out that NASCAR isn’t likely to police every lap of every race, even if they wanted to. “They’re not trying to officiate every single race, every single lap, going, ‘Did he do what he should have done or could have done?’ It’s impossible,” Dale Jr said. Instead, he believes these rules will only come into play during the playoffs when the stakes are highest and the temptation to manipulate outcomes is greatest.

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Will the changes work? Dale Jr’s skepticism

Here’s the thing though, Dale Jr doesn’t think these rule changes will stop teams from trying to game the system. If anything, he thinks they’ll just force teams to be sneakier about it. “The teams are still going to know the agenda they have individually and as an organization,” he said. “The manufacturers? That ain’t changing.”

He painted a vivid picture of what is likely to happen behind closed doors before a playoff race: “They’re still gonna get together and go, ‘Y’all know what needs to happen? Y’all know what team has to do? Don’t make it hard on this guy today.’” The key, according to Dale Jr, is for teams to keep those plans off the radio. “You’ve got to have that plan created and understood on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday,” he said. “It can’t come to the racetrack. If you can’t execute your plan [unspoken, without talking over the radio], NASCAR’s going to step in.”

Dale Jr doesn’t think NASCAR can put the toothpaste back in the tube. “I think NASCAR is trying to do the right thing,” he said, “but I don’t know that these teams are just gonna go, ‘Yeah, all right, we’ll stop. We’re gonna quit doing that now.’”

In other words, the new rules might be more about optics than actual enforcement. “NASCAR’s position has always been, ‘Don’t make us have to do this,’” Dale Jr explained. “They’re putting this in here so fans can see that they’re watching and that they see what’s going on. They want to stop it, but teams, don’t make them have to step in.”

So, where does this leave us? On one hand, NASCAR is trying to address a real problem. The Martinsville debacle exposed just how messy things can get when manufacturers and teams start playing favorites. On the other hand, as Dale Jr pointed out, the new rules are vague enough that teams might just find ways to work around them.

The real test will come during this year’s playoffs. Will we see another Martinsville-style controversy? Or will teams manage to keep their plans under wraps, avoiding NASCAR’s wrath? Either way, one thing’s for sure: the sport is in uncharted territory.

As Dale Jr put it, “I don’t know that you can fix this entirely. Teams are always going to look for an edge. That’s just racing.”