What would have happened if Dale Earnhardt Jr was not forced to retire at the end of the 2017 season? It’s one of those scenarios that fans can only speculate on. During his two decades behind the wheel as a NASCAR driver, Dale Jr suffered over a dozen concussions. In 2012, he was forced to miss out on two major races, and he also missed out on the second half of the 2016 season because of concussion-related symptoms.

In an alternate scenario, would Dale Earnhardt Jr continue at Hendrick Motorsports if he was healthy? What would have become of Alex Bowman, who went on to replace Dale Jr in 2018? It’s one of Dale Jr’s biggest ‘what if’ scenarios, that fans took to social media to theorize on.

Timely retirement or a career cut short?

By his lofty standards, Dale Earnhardt Jr’s final season didn’t meet his expectations. While he only competed in 18 races in the 2016 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season, he finished runner-up four times. However, in the 2017 season, Dale Jr finished in the top five only once all season, a fifth-place finish at the 2017 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. Was he past his prime, or were his injuries catching up to him? Either way, with just eight top-ten results all season, it was clear that his performances had faced a massive dip.

According to Dale Jr, a crash while testing at Kansas Speedway in 2012 made him susceptible to concussions. Speaking about the incident, Dale Earnhardt Jr said, “I remember thinking as I was heading toward that fence, ‘This is going to be an insane, insane impact.’ And I hit the wall at 190 mph and my head is right against that headrest and it’s as stiff as a roll bar, and so my head didn’t go anywhere and everything inside of it went into high-speed movement, and my brain just compacts against the inside of my skull at an incredible force.

“There’s not any situation that I can think of that would result in a harder impact in racing. And if it doesn’t happen to me, I probably don’t cut my career short. I’m probably still driving race cars today. But that wreck made it easier, I think, for me to get concussions beyond that instance.” The driver mentioned that the incident in 2012 was the reason he was forced to cut his career short. The incident undoubtedly took its toll on Dale Jr, as he was forced to undergo extensive rehabilitation in 2016, including computer-based eye tests, fine motor tuning, as well as old-fashioned cardio.

However, the lasting effects of concussion-related symptoms were undoubtedly the main reasons why he decided to retire at the end of the 2017 season. For a driver who had won thrice in the 2015 season, going two years without a victory in a Hendrick Motorsports car, had more to do with circumstances beyond form. Had he successfully recovered from concussion-related setbacks, or not experienced them at all, it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that he might have carried on beyond 2017.

But what would have happened to Alex Bowman, who went on to replace Dale Jr in the No. 88 Chevy in 2018? Having served as a part-time racer for Hendrick Motorsports during the 2016 season, the most logical outcome is that Bowman would have waited until Dale Earnhardt retired before replacing him. After all, an opportunity to race full-time for Hendrick Motorsports doesn’t come every day, and given Dale Jr’s circumstances off-track, it was only a matter of time before the veteran would have closed the curtains on his career.

The birth of Dale Jr’s first child, Isla Rose Earnhardt, in October 2017 may have played a big role in his retirement as well. Wanting to spend more time with his family, especially after spending two decades behind the wheel, Dale Earnhardt Jr may have felt that irrespective of injuries, the time had come to close the curtains on his illustrious NASCAR career. His decision was made seven years ago, but that didn’t stop fans from speculating on the ‘what if’ scenario, in the event he didn’t miss half of the 2016 season.

Fans believe Dale Jr would have retired irrespective of the 2016 break

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NASCAR fans took to social media to theorize about the various scenarios that could have played out had Dale Earnhardt Jr not been forced to miss the second half of the 2016 season. While some believed that the driver would have carried on, most thought that he would have retired irrespective.

Junior had previously mentioned that he had 20 to 25 concussions throughout his career. Moreover, he got married in 2015 and had his first child in 2017, factors that could have influenced his decision to retire. Keeping them in mind, one fan wrote, “Short answer…no…his career was most likely always going to get cut short because of all the concussions…it was obvious the marriage and child heavily influenced it as well.” Echoing that sentiment, another fan wrote on Reddit, “I don’t think he does, he was also wanting to start a family with Amy and that is hard to do when you are on the road 30+ weeks a year.”

Having won thrice in 2015, Dale Earnhardt Jr saw a massive dip in form in 2016 and 2017, going two years without a single race win. Keeping these factors in mind, one fan wrote, “I think he retires in 2017 anyways but I could see him going through 2018 if he kept winning. No way he goes much more. Bowman probably just takes the car a year later maybe.” Bowman, who was a part-time racer for Hendrick Motorsport in 2016, secured three top 10 finishes in nine races during that season, an impressive set of results that led him to eventually replace Dale Jr.

Recognizing that Dale Jr’s concussion-related symptoms helped spread more awareness about the risk of injuries that drivers can face, one fan wrote on Reddit, “He would have most likely still retired 2017-2018 depending on performance. If he did not get a concussion the sport might not be as attuned to the risks of it.” Another fan expressed a similar sentiment, saying that the time had come for him to prioritize his health and family. The fan wrote, “Honestly no different I think. I loved Jr but the time had come. It was better for his health and his family life.”

Do you think Dale Earnhardt Jr would have retired in 2017 had he not missed the second half of the 2016 season? Let us know in the comments!