The #11 team will have to work twice as hard at Talladega. After all, it could be their only chance at helping Denny Hamlin advance to the next round of the Playoffs. Ironically, the perennial championship bridesmaid is all but 11 points above the cutline. However, in retrospect, Hamlin could have been sitting on a thicker points cushion heading out of Kansas. 

What stopped him from doing that on Sunday? In his own words, they had “a cr-ppy day on pit road.” Some others believed the bad luck plaguing him for weeks leading up to the Bristol Night Race had finally returned to tarnish his championship advances. But to counter that, he finished his race eighth at Kansas. Whatever the reasons, history is never kind to the losers. Hence, if the #11 team wishes to change its current narrative, their driver will have to do something he hasn’t done in four long years—win on a superspeedway.

Denny Hamlin’s four-year superspeedway drought looms large

Denny Hamlin has failed to win on a drafting track since the inception of this Next-Gen machine. For someone often hailed as a ‘superspeedway specialist’, the 44-year-old veteran hasn’t yet found the prowess that had once helped him birth three Daytona 500 victories. In fact, the last time Hamlin won a restrictor-plate race was, quite ironically, in the fall of 2020 at Talladega. So, when Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi sat together to discuss Hamlin’s chances on the September 30 episode of their ‘Teardown’ podcast, the latter wasn’t wrong to remark, “You shouldn’t feel great if you’re Denny Hamlin going into Talladega…”

He explained that out of all “12 playoff drivers left, Denny scored the fewest points this year on Superspeedways.” But that’s not all. Bianchi noted Hamlin “has not won a Superspeedway race in the Next-Gen era.” And that does not leave out Talladega. The Athletic journalist reflected on Hamlin’s earlier revelations about the new car, and how it “doesn’t fit his skill set on Superspeedways anymore.” Bianchi further explained, “The things he used to do, was able to do on drafting tracks, he really can’t do anymore… This is not a good spot for him to be in. This is a very tenuous spot to be in.” 

That is not a good discrepancy to carry with him next week to treacherous Talladega. Regardless, Hamlin and his entire team will be aware. A guy like Chris Gabehart, crew chief of the #11, is the type to do his homework well in advance. His datasheets will reveal Hamlin has only won twice at the Alabama draft track in 37 appearances. If in case, the #11 team falls below the cutline after next Sunday’s encounter, the week after will pose an even bigger challenge at the Charlotte ROVAL. In his near-two-decade NASCAR career, Hamlin has won only one Cup race on a road course. That happened almost a decade ago at Watkins Glen. Hence, expecting him to pull a flash-in-the-pan victory at the ROVAL this year is a longshot bet for the backup.

If his results drop in the next two weeks, the #11 team might exit the Round of 12. The grandstands would be left speculating on what might’ve been. Therefore, Bianchi is not wrong in emphasizing that Kansas may have been the last straw for Denny Hamlin. The next two weeks will be crucial for the man. He must bring his A-game both times in the proceedings. Moreover, his #11 crew must forget their mistakes from Bristol, and focus on the task at hand – help Denny Hamlin reach the Championship 4 race at Phoenix in only a few weeks.

To do that, their driver must also not play too much into the narrative of “I’m cursed. What can I do?” after Kansas. Sure, it would’ve been quite a relief not to have to worry about securing an automatic Round of 8  berth this far into the championship chase. But that’s a luxury only drivers like Joey Logano, and Kyle Larson are savvy with, thanks to their post-season triumphs at Atlanta, and Bristol, respectively. Can Denny Hamlin follow their lead? Maybe. Although, his fortunes weren’t all that positive the last time he visited Talladega.

Will the #11 conquer the Talladega curse this time around?

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Back in May, at the GEICO 500, Denny Hamlin witnessed 23XI Racing’s first victory of the 2024 season at Talladega, courtesy of one Tyler Reddick. It was a proud day for Hamlin and his co-owner, Michael Jordan, who were both in attendance that day. MJ sat atop the #45 pit box toward the end of the race. But not because he was rooting for Reddick over Bubba Wallace.

After suffering a harmless spin earlier in the race, Denny Hamlin, and the Toyotas of Bubba Wallace and Erik Jones, all got tangled in a terrifying wreck with less than 40 to go. The incident happened after an interesting plan went wrong, where seven Toyota cars lined up in a single file to gain track position on a gamble that predicted the other manufacturers falling short on fuel. But all hell broke loose only moments after the drivers set everything up to run as normal.

Contact from John Hunter Nemechek’s #42 got Bubba Wallace’s #23 loose ahead of him. The #23 then rammed into the rear of the #43 of Erik Jones, which sent the Legacy Motor Club driver hard into the outside wall. The ensuing impact had Jones hospitalized with a compression fracture for a couple of weeks. Amidst the chaos, Denny Hamlin’s #11 was also affected. And alongside Jones, and Bubba Wallace, he ended his race early.

Now, the stakes are higher. The pressure is boiling, and Hamlin’s near-two-decade-long championship chase is on the line, yet again. Will all these factors force Denny Hamlin into making a costly mistake next weekend? Or will he finally tame Talladega in this Next-Gen car that’s been so avoidant of his superspeedway success? We find out when the Yellawood 500 goes green from 2 PM ET on NBC, October 6th.