The Circuit of The Americas has always been a proving ground with its elevation changes and sharp turns that can catch even the seasoned veterans off guard. There’s always a buzz in the air when NASCAR comes to visit. But this year, unlike others, the buzz wasn’t about the familiar names, like Chase Elliott or Kyle Larson, who are considered masters of the road courses. Instead, two new stars – Connor Zilisch and Shane van Gisbergen stole the spotlight from them.

One of them is a rising road course star, while the other is a grizzled veteran making his Cup Series debut. But what made them a fan favorite? And why were historic road course champions being snubbed ahead of them heading into COTA? Well, the race isn’t just about who qualified first or who crossed the finish line first; it is about who the fans believe in and are willing to put their money on!

From long shots to favorites

Sports betting is a narrative that is very closely related to the stories on the track. It is a measure of the fan sentiments; it is a clear and pure expression of who his ‘hot’ amongst the fans and who is not. And at COTA this weekend, the betting odds delivered a verdict that surprised everyone – Tyler Reddick, the 2023 COTA winner, along with SVG and the 18-year-old debutant, Connor Zilisch, were the favorites to claim victory at COTA. Despite Christopher Bell eventually taking the win, it’s worth looking at why these two road course aces were particularly favored.

For years, Chase Elliott has been the gold standard at road courses. The HMS driver has the third most road course wins in NASCAR history with 7 of them, only trailing Tony Stewart (8) and Jeff Gordon (9). But with a string of setbacks – inconsistent form, past performances, and a younger field of talent- he saw his odds to win the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix drop to +1100 to win, compared to +450 for SVG and +750 for Zilisch as per NBC Sports Bet. The question that is on everyone’s mind is, why? It is momentum.

Connor Zilisch‘s victory in the Xfinity Series on Saturday was an amazing display of racing skills and determination. After a pit-lane penalty that dropped him to the back of the field, he clawed his way back to the front and secured a well-fought victory. “That was significantly more challenging than I anticipated,” Zilisch said post-race. 

“I want to try and become the youngest Cup Series winner.” Zilisch also had the added motivation of winning on his Cup Series debut, breaking Joey Logano’s record to become the youngest Cup Series winner in NASCAR history. This motivation, combined with the ability to perform under adversity, as shown in the Xfinity race on Saturday, had impressed everyone and sent his stock flying in the betting world.

SVG’s journey to NASCAR is quite compelling, too. He brings tons of experience from the Australian Supercars Series, which translates to NASCAR road courses, as shown by his win at Chicago on debut in 2023 and a podium at Watkins Glen that year. With the rough time he had on his last outing at COTA with a 20th place finish, he will be more determined to make it right this time. His expertise and excellent results at road courses combined with the drive to do better this time at COTA have given the bettors the confidence to put their trust in SVG, which reflects in his +450 to win odds.

But why does an 18-year-old debutant have better odds than the current greats of the sport? What makes a newcomer more attractive to bettors on this track compared to veterans like Elliott, Busch, or Larson?

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Generational divide: Why are veterans falling behind?

Newcomers or debutants such as Connor Zilisch bring with them a fresh perspective to such road courses that are free of the traditional NASCAR oval racing strategies. Their ability to adapt quickly to the road tracks also gives them an advantage on such tracks.

This rise of young drivers and their success on the track, as well as in the betting world, can also be attributed to the modern simulation and training tools that these drivers have available from a very young age, which have helped them on the road courses. Road course racing is a big change from traditional stock car racing, especially at COTA. With a traditional NASCAR oval only having left turns, road courses like COTA have ‘s turns’ and involve tight maneuvers, which isn’t easy to handle, especially in the Next-Gen car. 

A close look at stats in the Next-Gen car at road courses gives us a glimpse as to who is dominating. Since 2022, Kyle Larson has won three road course races; however, doubts over his confidence after a disappointing end at Daytona and yet another near miss at Atlanta had bettors less interested in the HMS driver. Following him are Tyler Reddick and William Byron, two younger drivers with 3 wins and 2 wins, respectively.

Chase Elliott or Kyle Busch, both boasting over 5 career road course wins, have not seen a road course victory in the Next-Gen car. These stats highlight the shift in preference of bettors towards younger drivers like Connor Zilisch with better knowledge adaptability for the car than knowledge of the track itself.

As NASCAR continues to evolve and grow, we know that the road courses are here to stay. For veterans, it is essential to adapt to these tracks in the new car to keep their dominance secure. With the new talent ready to take over and the veterans facing challenges, NASCAR’s road course racing is becoming more interesting than ever before.