If you’ve followed NASCAR even casually, you know that Chase Elliott isn’t just a driver; he’s a phenomenon. The 2020 Cup Series Champion (the third youngest ever) has spent the past few years proving that while he may be unlucky, he’s never outmatched. A user on the NASCAR subreddit, Steub, recently crunched the numbers, revealing that despite his tumultuous 2023 season, Elliott’s average finish of 12.4 in the Next-Gen era (2022-2024) has put him ahead of some of NASCAR’s brightest stars. We’re talking big names like Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Blaney.

Now, how does a driver who spent a good chunk of 2023 dealing with injuries and suspensions still come out on top of these stats? And why are fans so split on whether consistency is enough in this era of racing? Let’s dive into what makes Chase Elliott’s story so intriguing and what his numbers truly mean.

Comebacks, grit, and a Texas triumph

To understand the buzz, you have to start with the setbacks. Elliott’s 2023 season reads more like a drama series than a sports stat sheet. First, there was the snowboarding accident that sidelined him for six races. Then came a suspension for rough driving — a bold move that showed a flash of aggression fans don’t often see from him. Despite missing crucial track time, Elliott clawed his way back to relevance. And by the time he clinched a victory at Texas Motor Speedway in April 2024, snapping a 42-race winless streak, fans were ready to shout from the rooftops. The Texas win not only secured his playoff spot but also injected a surge of confidence into both Elliott and his team.

But not everyone thinks a single win amid consistent finishes is enough to solidify him as a top-tier threat in the Next-Gen era. “So weird that Elliott leads in average finish but only has 1 win in the last 2 years,” one fan pointed out. And while that’s true, it’s essential to consider that Elliott’s driving style has always aired on the cautious side rather than the reckless. This approach helps him avoid wrecks, allowing him to consistently score top-10s and top-15s, even when his car doesn’t have winning speed.

In comparison, Kyle Larson, who is known for his aggressive, go-for-broke style, has more wins but also racks up more DNFs. Another fan noted this difference: “Larson is far more aggressive than Elliott and wins more races, but he also tears up a lot more cars.” This isn’t just fan chatter — Larson indeed has a higher win rate but also tends to finish outside the top due to crashes.

Fans see Elliott’s cautious but effective driving as a double-edged sword. “Chase Elliott has been the most consistent driver the last 4 years,” said one commenter. “He doesn’t junk his equipment and tries to keep out of harm’s way. I wish he was a little more aggressive to get more wins, but he is almost always in contention because he gets to the end of races.” There’s truth in this. While other drivers might gamble everything for the win and end up with a mangled car, Elliott ensures he’s there when the checkered flag falls. This strategy, however, has its limitations, particularly in an era where wins are critical for playoff positioning.

What’s holding Elliott back? Fans have theories

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When Steub’s data hit the subreddit, it sparked a wave of what-ifs and comparisons to NASCAR’s past points system. One user mused, “Another graphic that shows Chase was born way too late. Would’ve been in the hunt year in and out in the Latford system.” This statement rings true when you consider that under the pre-2004 points format, consistency was king. Elliott, with his high average finish, would have likely been a championship contender multiple times in a system that rewarded finishing positions more evenly.

A similar sentiment appeared in another fan’s comment: “He really was born too late. Even his personality would better match decades ago.” Back in the day, drivers who avoided wrecks and consistently finished in the top 10 were revered.

But here’s the issue, modern NASCAR doesn’t value consistency as much as it once did. Since the introduction of the playoff system, with its emphasis on wins and stage points, drivers like Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin, who can dominate entire races or even just critical stages, often find themselves in stronger playoff positions. Elliott’s lack of aggressive moves means he’s usually not racking up stage wins or securing extra points, which has hampered him from advancing as far as he might in previous formats.

Some fans think the key to unlocking Elliott’s full potential might lie not in his driving style but in his support system. “Chase will be nasty in his prime, with the right crew chief of course,” one fan speculated. While Alan Gustafson has been with Elliott through thick and thin — including his 2020 championship — the current team dynamic might not be pushing them into victory lane as often as fans hope.

Another commenter added context, saying, “Gustafson rightfully deserves his flowers for all he’s done historically, but at the same time, something needs to change in that team in order to find the speed for wins.” The numbers don’t lie: Elliott’s average finishes speak to a well-executed race strategy, but the wins column suggests they could be leaving something on the table.

So, where does Chase Elliott go from here? He’s not lacking in talent, that’s clear. His Texas win proved that when he needs to push, he’s got it in him. But for fans, the hope is that Elliott finds the right balance between his meticulous racecraft and the aggressive edge that modern NASCAR demands.