We are at a stage of the 2023 NASCAR season where every single lap in every single race counts towards who the championship 4 will be. Last weekend’s 267 laps at the Texas Motor Speedway were no less crucial. Under the scorching heat of the Wild West, Rick Hendrick’s driver, William Byron, grabbed his sixth win of the season. But the cost of the win for the team owner was to watch his other car, the No. 5 of Kyle Larson, crash out of the race. Despite dominating the track and winning stage 2, Larson’s old tires gave out under him.

Where a win could have shot him into the round of 8, the field results shoved him down the points table to 8th place. Hanging around the bottom line as he heads to Talladega, he will have the opportunity to exploit the weakness of one driver in particular: Former champion Martin Truex Jr.

The roadblock that the No. 5 team faces in the playoffs right now

Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson has consistently put up good performances over this season and found the victory lane on 3 different tracks. But all that good work could come undone if he doesn’t figure out a way to tackle the upcoming race at the Talladega Superspeedway.

The 2.6-mile oval is considered to be the fastest and one of the most dangerous tracks on the land. Moreover, it is not a destination where Larson has found much previous success. Over his last 5 appearances at the track, he has finished outside the top 30 on 3 occasions. And the latest of those bad results came just a few months ago.

Racing at the track in the Geico 500 race of 2023, Kyle Larson entangled himself in a severe crash that wrecked his car out of recognition. The incident that shook the entire racing community left the driver completely unsettled. Though he did not sustain any injuries, he said at the time, “Obviously it’s unsettling when you see things that could have easily gotten me in the car, whether it was the bars that completely broke off and could have shanked me or just what if I had a second impact.”

These words are a direct reflection of the nervousness that the track had instilled in the driver. Going to the same oval where he narrowly escaped severe happenings and racing, will take a huge will of mind to handle. Blended in with the not-so-positive results there, he faces a very steep climb. However, he could just find some strong footing on the mountainside, courtesy of Martin Truex Jr.

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An out-of-luck Martin Truex Jr. could be exploited by Kyle Larson

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Martin Truex Jr. was a table leader alongside William Byron when he broke into the playoff season. The expectation of many, including legend Dale Earnhardt Jr. was that he would go on to be a championship favorite. But the unpredictable character of NASCAR revealed itself and Truex Jr. has been struggling to create an impact with his Toyota. The No. 19 driver has raced in 4 playoff races so far and not once has he managed to finish inside the top 10. That’s saying something.

The 2017 Cup Series champion’s previous records at the Talladega don’t fare much better than Larson’s either. In his 37 appearances at the track since 2005, he hasn’t managed to visit its victory lane even once. All these stats and the tide of luck only mean one thing. He is a direct shot for drivers like Larson. Currently sitting at 5th in the points table, Truex Jr. doesn’t hold that big of an advantage over Larson. Should Rick Hendrick’s driver manage to maintain his nerves and showcase good speed, he could very well get himself past Joe Gibbs’ driver going to the Roval.

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Truex Jr. had spoken with a sense of urgency after his Texas race where he finished P17. He said to NBC Sports, “We’ve got to find a way to get it going. We have to do it quickly. Talladega is a crapshoot wildcard … the Roval, it’s a tough place, too, so these next two are going to be really tough.” 

Self-awareness kicking in, his No. 19 team could all the well choose Talladega to be the track where they make the comeback. With just a few days to go for the next event, we will not have to wait to see who climbs up and who goes down!